If I understand your earlier post correctly, you are saying the really crucial thing that has changed the balance between consoles and computers is the way games have gone from being things one guy can code in his bedroom (as in the 8 bit days) to being huge productions with bigger budgets than many movies? Hence a large user-base is essential to support the costs of development? So perhaps a shift to closed, standardised consumer platforms is part of the maturing of the games industry? I'm struggling to think of an analogy with some other industry, to get some indication on where it might go in the long run.
Yes, that is a good summation. On a realistic basis we are already at the point where the upper limits of visuals are a function of budget as much as technology, the more we move forward the more that will tip towards budget. They could make the consoles so simple to develop for we could even go back to the days of one guy writing the code for a game in his basement in his spare time, the problem is going to be assett development(not that coding games is going to get easier, just pointing out that isn't where the real budget issues are going to be).
I think the best industry to compare games to going forward is going to be movies still. Take a look at the budget for something like a StarWars versus something like Slumdog Millionaire. We are going to see an increasingly large rift between top tier titles and those without huge budgets, and I can see both of those doing fine. Services like Live Arcade, the PSNStore and Steam already offer a great place to pick up some fun titles with significantly lower production value then the sweeping epics we pay full price for. I see those as sort of 'direct to video' offerings to put them in an abstract comparison. It doesn't mean there is anything wrong with them, just that they aren't going to be huge blockbusters even if some of them deserve it far more then some of the bigger titles. This is a market I can see the PC dominating for many different reasons, how easy it is to develop for being a huge one.
I think on a realistic basis we should start expecting less games in total coming out at the full price retail level. I think publishers are going to increasingly push their games firmly into the AAA realm or back them down into the less expensive/less risky low production games(not saying bad by any means, my favorite game in terms of fun for the 360 is Geometry Wars which is a stupidly simple concept that is an absolute blast to play).
MMOs are off in their own little orbit, a completely different ballgame although the economics of them share similar elements to the broader market. You have your mega blockbusters that are pushing nine figure development costs, such as WoW and ToR, then you have your next step down with solid but more nich titles like WAR, EvE and Conan, and then some of the more obscure titles which mainly seem to come from Korea(Aion comes to mind, although it seems like that may have a shot at bumping up into the next category).
What you say about games vs systems is entirely reasonable, but I have to say I prefer the PC, though I'm not sure why.
For me it depends on the genre entirely. Strategy games are PC by light years over the consoles, only system I will touch for strats outside of the PC is the DS, and that is for scaled down simpler versions only. FPSs PC again, I'll take a mouse and a keyboard. I don't have an issue playing a shooter on the consoles, but it certainly isn't my first choice(well, a high def FPS with Wii style controls would be pretty slick). Racers are consoles all the way, for a ton of reasons- availability of top tier racing games on the PC for years now has unfortunately been zero Action games overwhelmingly console again, big screen, controller, buddies playing with you, just a better experience on the consoles. Fighting games are the same. Adventure type titles it comes down to title availability, rarely are they available on both platforms, and overwhelmingly the ones that are on a given system are best on that particular system(in terms of differing styles). RPGs are much like adventure games, while having huge amounts of flexibility and the ability to mod a game like Oblivion are a huge plus, the sweeping theatrical style storyline of FF lends itself much better to consoles(we are seeing some crossover there).
For some reason the very 'closed' and non-tinkering-friendly aspect of consoles is what puts me off them. I don't know what the 'user mod' situation is with consoles now, but that's another side of it, the PC just feels less passive and more interactive than a console. But whatever will be will be, its hard to argue with economics.
All very well said. I absolutely see the strengths in the PC as a gaming platform, much as I do the others(never dealing with DRM and knowing every game will play flawlessly is nice too ), my biggest thing is enjoying the games. I try to pick them up on whatever platform will give me the best experience for them and enjoy them. When it comes down to it, hardcore gamers are still looked at like we are a bunch of overgrown kids by a large segment of society. Pointing towards one group or another amongst ourselves and saying those are the real kids is just foolish