Why did Microsoft fail with smartphones?

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
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What makes you say that?

The Microsoft apps on Android are often better than their counterparts on Microsoft's own OS.
I might like it. I've read some posts that make me think it may not be so great. Android, some say, is inferior to Windows Phone in some respects. I can't say why, I've never used Android and I don't remember the posts.

The Android phones are pricier too. But I'd be able to go to Verizon, which is a definite positive. I get really really bad coverage for AT&T in my house! The user reviews in my area a couple of years ago looked just as bleak for T-Mobile. Verizon just isn't supported in the Lumias AFAIK.

I suppose if I become unhappy enough with my Windows Phone I'll go Android. However, for the moment I'm happy enough. In fact, I'm thrilled with it (GPS without data usage, 120GB microSD card that lets me listen to music from my over 60GB of MP3s on the phone, great weather app, many cute freebie apps, nice 8MP camera, etc.), but I don't tell people my cell phone number except in rare instances. Right now I have over $200 credit on my $10/month MVNO plan by virtue of rollovers over a 2+ year period.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
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The problem is MS wont concede that sweet sweet app store and IAP $% skim to Google.
This means what? MS is skimming too much of the profit from app sales making it more profitable for app developers to work on Android versions?
 

Roland00Address

Platinum Member
Dec 17, 2008
2,196
260
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One of a good way to think of businesses that I was first introduced by Ben Thompson (Analyst and Consultant with the website https://stratechery.com/ he used to work for Apple and Microsoft)

* Identify how you make your money in the product chain

* Identify how your competitors make your money in the product chain

* Identify your value to the customer, how do you make their lives better, do not think features, think how are you useful, what do you do differently. (Think in a feature mindset can cause you to think inside the box and prevent you from thinking outside the box and miss transformative changes)

* Do the same for your competitors

Now focus on how to decrease the cost of the product. If you have a $100 dollar product and its costs are A+B+C+D+E and your revenue only comes from part A figure out how to make B+C+D+E cheaper and that this savings is passed onto the customer. In other words decrease the cost of the product while increase the size of your pie piece of Revenue and Profit derived from each sale.

And if you make profit off of A and your opponent makes profit off of B figure out how to shrink the cost of B as much as you can for by doing so you shrink your oppoents revenue and profit and this in turn allows you to acquire resources while deriving them from your opponent.







So Microsoft has always had a liscensing model going back to Dos, Windows 95, Office, etc. Microsoft goal from the 80s to today was to decrease the cost of hardware for computers while at the same time keep the licensing fees for each computer as high as possible and due to technology in $1983 Compaq was selling its first computer for $3k with an Intel 8088 chip and IBM selling the PC XT starting at $5k (features were the same except IBM included a 10 MB hard drive and a 12.5" monitor vs 9"). Today it is not uncommon to see complete computers for under $300. Margins for hardware OEMs are less than 5% with them often making pennies to a few dollars on each computer sold while microsoft makes between 20 to 25% of its revenue as profit

(recently Microsoft over the lifetime of the company has done $1 trillion dollars in sales, and kept $265 billion of that $1 trillion as profit)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-hit-1-trillion-time-154723035.html





So what does Google with Android do differently than Microsoft in the smartphone and tablet business? It makes money with another division which is ads and data collection to get higher ad rates and thus they give away their software for free. They are able to build relationships with OEMs that are naturally cooperative for the OEMs are not competing on a $500 dollar device how much goes to microsoft and how much do they keep.

In other words Google way of making moeny alligns with the interest of the OEMs and its also easier to "sell to customers" for free is good. There is no direct antagonism in this relationship.

While Microsoft on the other hand did not innovate, did not change for they liked the business they had and did not want to change it, especially when changing it required tweaking the way they make money and this is so contra to human nature, you want me to make less profit or no profit on the device when I am currently making $25 dollars plus on each phone sold in licensing fees?

And all the while Google slowly gets bigger and bigger like a tortoise, and Microsoft did not adapt, they were asleep at the helm, like the rabbit who slept the race away for he did not see the reason why he should change when he made so much money in the 80s and 90s and the early 2000s doing what he did.

While Vista was a disaster and Vista was released in 2006, Microsoft should have been changing its whole business strategy and how the company was operating several years prior to Vista. Steve Ballmer started running Microsoft as CEO in 2000, and was CEO from 2000 to 2014. He overlearned the market correction / silicon valley crash of the dot com bubble but he just could not fundamentally understand the internet was not going away and that the internet and the data itself was the important thing (the value added to the customer and the improvement in their lives) and the OS itself adds no value to the customer and just because Balmer makes money on the OS does not mean the customer is going to love paying you for something that only "hurts them and does not help them."




There is an exchange that starts in the Season 1 in Silicon Valley and also occurs in Season 3 of Silicon Valley

Season 1 Episode 2 said:
Peter: You turned down ten million dollars to keep Pied Piper.
Peter: What did you give up that money for? What is this company? What did I buy? -
Richard: You bought the algorithm, which...
Peter: (interupting Richard) No.
Peter: The algorithm is the product of the company.
Peter: I know that.
Peter: What I'm asking about is the company itself.
Peter: Who is it? What do they do? Are they essential? Or do you just throw a percentage at them like you did with this This all must be worked out.

Peter Gregory the initial angel investor in silicon valley best understood how markets worked.

But the Steve Balmer mindset is explained by a Season 3 Episode 2 (the one with the horses) mindset by the character Action Jack

Jack: Richard, I don't think you understand what the product is.
Jack: The product isn't the platform, and the product isn't your algorithm, either.
Jack: And it's not even the software.
Jack: (changing the voice to a rhetorical one,)
Jack: Do you know what Pied Piper's product is, Richard?
Richard: Is... Is it me?
Jack: (in Shock) Oh God! No! No.
Jack: How could it possibly be you?
Jack: You got fired.
Jack: Pied Piper's product is its stock.

No no no no no. You mis understood everything Action Jack, the product is not the stock, the products of a company are the actual products you need to sell those things, you can trade a stock but you can't sell a stock. You always need to keep coming out with products that people are willing to buy, or find some other way to generate revenue, and as long as you keep on generate revenue and in the long term make profit the stock will reflect this.

But focusing too much on revenue, or too much on profit, or too much on the stock price misses the forest by hyperfocusing on the trees. You always need to be outside your body and inside the body of the customer you are selling to. Why do they want to buy their product, how can you help them, and how can you help them while making money?

And how can you be two steps ahead of your competitors for they are going to want to find a way to be a better salesperson to those customers in order to steal your business.

And the reason why Microsoft failed in mobile is they did not get this.
 

quikah

Diamond Member
Apr 7, 2003
4,085
663
126
After the initial period of disorientation, you'll probably wish you'd switched sooner. I recently purchased a Lumia to satisfy my curiosity. I went in with tempered expectations and an open mind but it was much worse than I had anticipated. I tried both 8.1 and 10. The best thing about the whole experience was the hardware, and It makes me depressed thinking about what Microsoft did to Nokia. What a waste. I would have loved to see the Nokia hardware experience on Android.



Meh, the only thing better about android is app availability. Windows is better at most things IMO. But that is what would be good about having more options, some people like android, some like IOS, some like Windows. Too bad so few devs support Windows.
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
Google won because they understood that a mobile OS per se was more or less a worthless commodity but the loyalty to their own services and the app ecosystem are the key. MS lost because they didn't.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,912
2,130
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Way too slow. I used Winpho 8 and Winpho 10 on my 1020, and there are loads of features missing IMO that should have come with Winpho7 several years ago. I can't use it as my daily driver anymore.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
No no no no no. You mis understood everything Action Jack, the product is not the stock, the products of a company are the actual products you need to sell those things, you can trade a stock but you can't sell a stock. You always need to keep coming out with products that people are willing to buy, or find some other way to generate revenue, and as long as you keep on generate revenue and in the long term make profit the stock will reflect this.

But focusing too much on revenue, or too much on profit, or too much on the stock price misses the forest by hyperfocusing on the trees. You always need to be outside your body and inside the body of the customer you are selling to. Why do they want to buy their product, how can you help them, and how can you help them while making money?

And how can you be two steps ahead of your competitors for they are going to want to find a way to be a better salesperson to those customers in order to steal your business.

And the reason why Microsoft failed in mobile is they did not get this.

I don't think the issue was so much revenue by itself as an obsession with protecting the central revenue generator (Windows on PCs) at all costs. Ballmer thought desktop Windows was the be-all, end-all of the company, and couldn't imagine building anything that might diminish its significance.

What he didn't realize, of course, was that he had to build something that diminished desktop Windows if he wanted Microsoft to remain relevant. Hire hundreds or thousands of mobile-savvy engineers. Give mobile Windows top priority... heck, be willing to abandon the Windows brand if necessary. Instead, mobile Windows always remained a sideshow.
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
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I don't think the issue was so much revenue by itself as an obsession with protecting the central revenue generator (Windows on PCs) at all costs. Ballmer thought desktop Windows was the be-all, end-all of the company, and couldn't imagine building anything that might diminish its significance.

The Wintel business model only worked because of their defacto monopolies. Their were offering an once compulsory means (Windows, x86 CPUs) to an end (IM, email, web surfing, social networks) that crumbled like a house of cards when Google and Apple offered alternative and better means (free, mobility, App stores) to the same end. Wintel actually believed that people bought their stuff because they liked it, not for the reasons above.

It's just like how optical rewritable makers proudly proclaiming how flash would never match them in GB/$ and got dodo'ed way before that even happened: a thorough lack of understanding about their very own business model, let alone attempting to rectify it.
 
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Roland00Address

Platinum Member
Dec 17, 2008
2,196
260
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While it can be possible, did you see the additional layoffs and the complete removal of all of the jobs in Finland (the former nokia division) that only occurred last week? Last week they also wrote down their assets in relation to the Nokia purchase an additional 900 million so making the total writedown over 20 months (aka the loss) of Nokia $8.5 billion even though they only paid $7.2 billion for Nokia (in other words keeping the division running plus the severance actually cost microsoft an additional $1.3 billion and there was no value what so ever for the Nokia purchase that happened only 20 months ago)

http://mspoweruser.com/microsoft-explains-phone-restructuting/

Seriously how did the board allow this to happen. The current ceo Satya Nadella was against the purchase 20 months ago, but Balmer was for it and left it as a goodbye president to Satya when he departed Microsoft.
 

Gunbuster

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
6,852
23
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They sure keep fluffing the dedicated followers along with the Surface Phone. Short of Giorgio handing over some ancient aliens CPU tech how is it going to be powered?

Option 1: A non canceled atom. Hate to tell you even the 4 watt atoms bog down in a full office situation for a business user. I'm typing on one right now. Let me tell you I'm not getting wood over it. Office 2016, Skype, Onedrive, Chrome... Meh user experience. slim it down to a handset power envelope and it just gets worse.

Option 2: ARM. Great you take a Lumia 950 and put a kickstand on it with a magnetic keyboard and the shoddy okay for a weekend at a hotel continuum experience. Sorry, not going to take off in enterprise where iPhone and apps are king.
 

quikah

Diamond Member
Apr 7, 2003
4,085
663
126
They sure keep fluffing the dedicated followers along with the Surface Phone. Short of Giorgio handing over some ancient aliens CPU tech how is it going to be powered?

Option 1: A non canceled atom. Hate to tell you even the 4 watt atoms bog down in a full office situation for a business user. I'm typing on one right now. Let me tell you I'm not getting wood over it. Office 2016, Skype, Onedrive, Chrome... Meh user experience. slim it down to a handset power envelope and it just gets worse.

Option 2: ARM. Great you take a Lumia 950 and put a kickstand on it with a magnetic keyboard and the shoddy okay for a weekend at a hotel continuum experience. Sorry, not going to take off in enterprise where iPhone and apps are king.

There was an interesting update that happened a bit over a week ago. MS updated the size requirements of Windows 10 mobile to <9" and Windows 10 to >=7". What this says to me is that "Surface Phone" will be a 7" tablet. I think it is the only way, the x86 chips are too power hungry to put into a phone form factor. Could a Core M3 work? ARM is pointless for this device.

Not sure what the motivation would be for the increase in size for Windows 10 mobile though.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Lack of leadership

And can't bring myself to like the tile interface even though i prefer windows 10 and found htc blink feed interesting
 

secretanchitman

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2001
9,352
21
91
Late in the game, lagged behind when revamping Windows Mobile, management, took a break, didn't provide phones on all carriers (too many models), app quality and quantity were just not there, no amazing "x-factor" of why people should get a Windows Phone over Android/iOS.
 

WildW

Senior member
Oct 3, 2008
986
20
81
evilpicard.com
The brief popularity/availability of interesting looking Windows phones did not coincide with the correct month in my 24 month contract upgrade cycle. There were times when I probably would have had one if it had been time to upgrade my phone.

Except of course that thanks to their app store being shared with Windows PCs, I already knew there was nothing good on there. That backfired.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
In my case a $60 entry point into the smart phone market (Lumia 520) coupled with data-free GPS and support for 64GB microSD (I like to listen to a lot of big MP3s), made my choice easy. Then my recent upgrade to $30 Lumia 640, which improved on my 520 in many ways including support for 128GB card, better/bigger screen, faster, front camera, better back camera, better battery life. Not having had a previous smartphone I have no real sense of missing out on apps. -shrug-
 

Denly

Golden Member
May 14, 2011
1,433
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Ballmer's MS was too slow to react but at least he tried, WP7.x was plain and boring but solid and work. Then Ballmer f'd all 7.x users, mainly EU user with Nokia phones. He should have offer all WP7.x user 50% off 920 at the beginning. WP8 was as solid as 7 also more lively. Then Ballmer work with Nokia to flood the mkt with hardware from low to highend including 1020 and it worked, peak at 8m unit a month. After that Ballmer force to buy Nokia because of hardware and map.
Ballmer also fail to force WP into people's hand by using his laptop/desktop dominance.

Now Nadella step in and undo everything Ballmer tried, No phone coming out, not 1020 follow up, kill WP8 features on w10m, from solid OS to slow unstable pos. Nadella pretty much killed everything people like about WP7/8. I have no idea what his plan about w10m but I am hating it so far.

I am no programmer but MS's effort on phone have been pathetic.
 

poofyhairguy

Lifer
Nov 20, 2005
14,612
318
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I finally gave up my 640 two weeks ago and holy crap it's like I just jumped five years forward in time when I use either my iPhone 6s Plus or my S6 Edge.

Windows Phone is just too far behind,and it's not just the app situation. The Edge browser COMPLETELY sucks (completely), the notification system sucks (why is every app given the same notification icon? I should be able to tell if I got a new email or text by the icon in the notification bar alone!), and many of the built-in apps suck (the podcast app couldn't consistently skip backwards 30 seconds to save its life). The few things Windows phone does really well (I like the tiles, I liked Cortana especially while driving, I LOVED how it handled music playback controls in the volume menu) doesn't even come close to making up for where it fails.

Now that I am switching back and forth between iOS and Android almost daily I see how close they are, how similar they are, in 2016. The market has converged on a single point and Microsoft is miles away from that point. And I think they know that,hence the massive write offs.

What really makes me sad is I LOVE the 640 hardware. Great build, I have three interchangeable backs, and it's a very solid but light device. I wish we could have seen a flagship Nokia Android phone back when it would have mattered.
 

s44

Diamond Member
Oct 13, 2006
9,427
16
81
I finally gave up my 640 two weeks ago and holy crap it's like I just jumped five years forward in time when I use either my iPhone 6s Plus or my S6 Edge.
Well, I mean, you did.

I liked the WP idea. I even recommended it to people at the time. But the target customer base - folks from the pre-smartphone generation who wanted the transition to be as unintimidating and un-fiddly as possible - no longer exists. Older late adapters have adapted and younger people grow up with iOS/Android as obvious background knowledge.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,406
4,967
136
Well, I mean, you did.

I liked the WP idea. I even recommended it to people at the time. But the target customer base - folks from the pre-smartphone generation who wanted the transition to be as unintimidating and un-fiddly as possible - no longer exists. Older late adapters have adapted and younger people grow up with iOS/Android as obvious background knowledge.

Exactly what I did. The 920 was my first smartphone and I recommended it to my mom as well, also because it would be a lot easier to be support with the same phone. I would still like a new wp, but if nothing substantial happens with wp, then I'll probably go android.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
Well, I mean, you did.

I liked the WP idea. I even recommended it to people at the time. But the target customer base - folks from the pre-smartphone generation who wanted the transition to be as unintimidating and un-fiddly as possible - no longer exists. Older late adapters have adapted and younger people grow up with iOS/Android as obvious background knowledge.

The window of opportunity was even smaller than that, really. Windows arguably had to get a significant foothold by 2009, before Android became popular and before iOS really blew up. By 2010, the momentum was clearly against anything that wasn't one of those two platforms. What we're seeing now is more like the door closing on a chance for even a niche level of market share.
 

Hopeless

Golden Member
Oct 29, 2004
1,426
0
71
<SNIP>
I'm still waiting for Windows 10 support for my 640 on AT&T network, not sure it's gonna happen, that would be a promise broken. Maybe I'll just go ahead and get it through the Windows Insider program.

I also have a 640 on AT&T and just upgraded to Win 10 last night. Don't know if they will change it but currently upgrading it to Win 10 is opt-in. You have to download Upgrade advisor from the app store. When you run it at some point you have to mark a box saying you want Win 10. After the app finishes and says your device is ok. Go through the phone settings to check for phone updates. That will get you version xx.107 of Win 10. Need to check phone updates again to update to version xx.318

It seems that the time it takes varies to do the update varies. I was on the extreme unlucky end as it took quite a long time to get both updates and I ended up going through the settings and did the reset your phone. Still have to update the apps when I get home tonight.
 

ericlp

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,133
220
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One could argue that ... the first one on the bus get's the best seat....

It's a dog eat dog world, and there is no time to wait around playing catch up.

Look at Intel... They pumped a crap load of money wanting a share of the mobile market. NOPE.... SOL! TOO LATE! MS also spent a crap load of money. Same boat tho, that ship has sailed and if you were not part of the revolution ...

I predict MS OS will fail right along with it's phones. It's just a matter of time. Seems the only thing keeping MS alive are it's hard core gamers. Like rats jumping from a sinking ship... I'm surprised they are still hanging on.
 
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