Why did the democrats fall so far short of expectations this election?

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
It is inherently difficult to do polling. It appears that in a massive KGB psyop it is impossible.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,874
10,432
136
Not sure exactly how to do it, but the Dems need to regain at least a modicum of appeal to rural voters and middle class workers. Hell, DFL is supposed to be "Democratic Farmer Labor". They somehow have lost nearly the entire rural vote and a good portion of the middle class workers. Just look at nearly any state the Democrats won. In nearly every state the only areas the dems won were the urban and surrounding areas. If they could have won even 20% of the rural counties, the election would have been a landslide.

What about getting more votes from non-rural, non-white people? In other words, stop chasing votes you haven't gotten for 2 elections now? In some sense, people of color and minorities delivered this election, so get in those communities, and continue to improve their turnout.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,123
10,410
136
For the election to be as close as it was, there's unquestionably a problem of perception. Somehow, despite the fact that Trump seemingly did everything he could to fatally undermine a normal presidency many times over, he still managed to get 70 million people to vote for him.

IMO the worst and simplest explanation for those 70 million people voting for him is that they evidently felt they would be well-placed in the increasingly fascist and xenophobic state. The most innocent and simplest explanation is that their news diet solely consisted of staunch-pro-Trump sources.

Personally I think the Biden campaign did the right thing, keep it simple and say you either want to vote for Trump or not-Trump; anything else was too complicated and would have taken too long to correct voter perception. Normal campaign tactics dictate that one can easily spend too long disparaging one's opponent(s), but neither the Trump campaign's complete commitment to that tactic or the Trump campaign's complete lack of campaign manifesto changed anything because Trump supporters weren't interested.

I remember early on in the campaign I read Biden's campaign platform and was thinking that it was aiming really low in terms of scale of achievement, but frankly between GOP Senate interference and voter perception of policies, I really think it was the right thing to do. IMO it'll take 4-6 consecutive and competent Democratic terms to undo the damage that the GOP has done to America. Come 2024, I think America will be fighting a similar electoral fight for the above reasons; Trump likely being completely out of the picture makes little difference as the groundwork for the current cult has been laid.

PS: My two explanations of the reasoning of Trump voters obviously consists of sweeping generalisations and so aren't intended to be accurately capturing the entire reasoning of 70 million individuals, but I do think those two points cover a good portion of their reasoning/circumstances and I'm happy to hear competing explanations.
 
Last edited:

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
And you wonder why the Progressheviks under performed?

You do know that's not a rousing endorsement of Republicans, right?

Part of why Biden won is that Trump's plans were "simpler and dumber" in their very nature, not just in how they were communicated. And in many cases, there were no real plans — no actual replacement for the ACA, no economic or pandemic recovery plans, not even a clear overall agenda for the second term. And that's because Trump's only goal was to stay in power, not to lead.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Trump was apparently right when he said he could shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue & he wouldn't lose any voters. They made a deeply irrational decision to support him & they're sticking with it, regardless. The truth slips right into their cognitive blind spots, where they can't see it. Trump does with words what a magician does with objects, as this one explains at 8:45 of this video-

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,018
49,799
136
You should talk to someone about this, help is available.
I don’t think you have any room to talk here considering you’re still denying Trump/Russia collusion in 2016 despite a massive, detailed report showing exactly that and one of the principals publicly releasing documents showing his collusion.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,018
49,799
136
Here’s a hot take - Democrats didn’t really underperform here. Biden will certainly be getting the highest number of votes of any candidate in history and he also looks to be getting among the highest vote share of anyone in decades, as a challenger! (Won’t know this for sure until all the votes are counted though)

As much as people want to talk about Trump’s clownishness most voters rated him highly on the economy and said they were better off today than four years ago. That usually means a win for the president.
 
Reactions: Zorba

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,742
5,403
136
I don’t think you have any room to talk here considering you’re still denying Trump/Russia collusion in 2016 despite a massive, detailed report showing exactly that and one of the principals publicly releasing documents showing his collusion.
What report would that be? I'll have a look.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,742
5,403
136
Why are you playing dumb? The Mueller report clearly documents extensive collusion.

Regardless, as linked before here’s the President’s son enthusiastically accepting Russia’s offer to collude on the 2016 election.

And the only people that missed that collusion were Bob Mueller, his entire team, the House, and his lead man that the FBI canned for being an idiot.
Thw story is worn out, and saying it again and again won't make it true. Trump walked away from that fiasco because there wasn't enough evidence to impeach him. There isn't any way to spin that as proof of a crime being committed.
Trump will be gone shortly, it's time to get over it. The retribution you seek isn't going to happen.
 
Reactions: Fenixgoon
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Because polling based on a question of "Will you perform an action in the future - and who would that person be?" is hilarious to try and pull statistics for. Statistics work - but they don't work on an action that hasn't been completed. Simply asking if they WOULD perform an action doesn't take into account how serious they actually are. It doesn't take into account local weather, economics, accessibility, the list goes on and on and on.

Just ask yourself in life - how many times have you asked someone - a coworker, a family member... even a spouse or your child "Did you do X like I asked?"
 
Last edited:
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Also, the GOP has virtually taken over social media, especially Facebook and Twitter. The dems have done little.

This all in spite of the dems raising more money in 2016, more money since 2016, and more money for this election. Biden spent almost all of it on TV ads which likely have a diminishing return in effectiveness. He suspended their door knocking ground game for months because of COVID. But the ground game problem started well before that bad decision.

Are the dems going to get their act together and learn the right lessons from this? I'm not going to donate to DNC if they continue to use our money unwisely.

w....wut....?

You must be smoking crack or just completely unaware of your surroundings if you think that the GOP has "virtually taken over social media, especially Facebook and Twitter".
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,018
49,799
136
And the only people that missed that collusion were Bob Mueller, his entire team, the House, and his lead man that the FBI canned for being an idiot.
He did not miss it - as already mentioned it’s detailed in his report. I was just giving you the quickest and easiest example of collusion, which you notably did not dispute.

Thw story is worn out, and saying it again and again won't make it true. Trump walked away from that fiasco because there wasn't enough evidence to impeach him. There isn't any way to spin that as proof of a crime being committed.
Trump will be gone shortly, it's time to get over it. The retribution you seek isn't going to happen.
You’re now mixing up terms and using other crimes Trump committed to try and excuse his collusion.

Regardless, I showed you ironclad evidence of collusion by Trump’s campaign and you ignored it. This is because you have no response. If you want to continue to live in this fantasy world that’s your business but really it’s pretty hypocritical to say other people need help when you’re engaging in these delusions.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,018
49,799
136
Because polling based on a question of "Will you perform an action in the future - and who would that person be?" is hilarious to try and pull statistics for. Statistics work - but they don't work on an action that hasn't been completed. Simply asking if they WOULD perform an action doesn't take into account how serious they actually are.

Just ask yourself in life - how many times have you asked someone - a coworker, a family member... even a spouse or your child "Did you do X like I asked?"
They do in fact work on actions not yet performed because in large populations over time we can get a sense of when the average american says that how often they actually do it. It adds uncertainty, yes, but it is not some insurmountable problem.

I think you guys may be surprised when in about a month or so it turns out the polls in 2020 were within the margin of error, at least nationally. There does appear to be issues with estimating on a state level in some circumstances but this idea that they were all massively off because they said Biden would win by 8 and he won by 5 seems wrong.
 

1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,313
534
126
Simple answer. Socialism. Republicans succeeded in labeling candidates running under the Democratic Party as socialist. It worked not only in the presidential race but in multiple senate, house, and governorships. Republicans found something they could use against Democrats and it worked only because Democrats allowed it to work and failed to fight back when being labeled. It worked thus a hell of a lot voters were convinced. Actually, we’re damn lucky people hated Trump enough to allow Joe Biden to become the next president. It’s often said that republicans are better with running elections but terrible at governing. That’s so true.
The Best answer and look who is being blamed.



The Bronx native said the Democratic party has been hostile to progressive causes, like Medicare for All and the Movement for Black Lives.

"Externally, there's been a ton of support," she said, according to The Times. "But internally, it's been extremely hostile to anything that even smells progressive."
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,123
10,410
136
As much as people want to talk about Trump’s clownishness most voters rated him highly on the economy and said they were better off today than four years ago. That usually means a win for the president.

When you say "a win", do you think that people (and I mean people who don't consider themselves to be Trump supporters per se) would consider that a unanimously deciding point without taking anything else about Trump's presidency into consideration?

I'd be inclined to answer yes to my question if the President had been someone who had been thoroughly unremarkable but at least they made some improvements to the economy.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,923
2,138
126
Trump walked away from that fiasco because there wasn't enough evidence to impeach him. There isn't any way to spin that as proof of a crime being committed.
Trump will be gone shortly, it's time to get over it. The retribution you seek isn't going to happen.
Trump walked away because the GOP refused to hold him accountable. If there was no evidence why did Romney vote to convict? He doesn't need the approval of Trump to win his state, whereas lots of other republicans do.

Do you also think "unindicted co-conspirator" aka Individual #1 is still a mystery man?
 
Reactions: mikeymikec

Lucio V

Junior Member
Jan 9, 2018
13
4
51
I think quite a few people here are loads more insightful than I am, I'm glad I checked in this thread, learned a lot of good points from everyone here. Thanks for that.

After read through some posts, I believe Democrats lacked the following as key areas to improve down the line:

(1) no ground game, spent most $$ on TV ads, this election has shown the power of Obama's use of ground game as superior to TV ads or virtual meet ups. Republicans used it and they proved it to be quite effective.

(2) Biden didn't run on policy, didn't say what he'll do, unlike Obama, it's all about Trump. Anti-trump isn't a good reason to vote for Biden, it may spur on in-party voters but definitely not going to inspire too many votes on policies, because you got none. End up w/ enough vote against trump but nothing on down ballots.

So for starters, Biden needs to talk about his agenda moving forward, he hasn't done that during campaign.

(3) I like how Republicans put things in simple terms, build wall, socialist, elitists, death panel, obamacare etc. words that are simple and effective to convey the message that evokes feeling. Democrats need to learn that.

You are talking with average people not someone with PhD in English lit. And in campaigning you need simplistic emotion. I'd say Democrats should hire some Republican campaign managers and learn from them.

(4) I know Democrats have all these plan to save the planet, to do international trade etc. But you need to understand the consequence of those actions and how it affects the lives of rural communities. If you want to move in that direction, you need to pace it and make sure new jobs are waiting for people when the old ones disapear, otherwise you are incrediblly irreponsible and cruel.
 
Reactions: Starbuck1975

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,893
25,438
136
I think quite a few people here are loads more insightful than I am, I'm glad I checked in this thread, learned a lot of good points from everyone here. Thanks for that.

After read through some posts, I believe Democrats lacked the following as key areas to improve down the line:

(1) no ground game, spent most $$ on TV ads, this election has shown the power of Obama's use of ground game as superior to TV ads or virtual meet ups. Republicans used it and they proved it to be quite effective.

(2) Biden didn't run on policy, didn't say what he'll do, unlike Obama, it's all about Trump. Anti-trump isn't a good reason to vote for Biden, it may spur on in-party voters but definitely not going to inspire too many votes on policies, because you got none. End up w/ enough vote against trump but nothing on down ballots.

So for starters, Biden needs to talk about his agenda moving forward, he hasn't done that during campaign.

(3) I like how Republicans put things in simple terms, build wall, socialist, elitists, death panel, obamacare etc. words that are simple and effective to convey the message that evokes feeling. Democrats need to learn that.

You are talking with average people not someone with PhD in English lit. And in campaigning you need simplistic emotion. I'd say Democrats should hire some Republican campaign managers and learn from them.

(4) I know Democrats have all these plan to save the planet, to do international trade etc. But you need to understand the consequence of those actions and how it affects the lives of rural communities. If you want to move in that direction, you need to pace it and make sure new jobs are waiting for people when the old ones disapear, otherwise you are incrediblly irreponsible and cruel.
I know how Trump did so well now.
 
Reactions: Zorba

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,123
10,410
136
Trump walked away because the GOP refused to hold him accountable.

In a farce of a trial that no subpoenas for documents or witnesses were made. For that to occur in a supposedly civilised country, and how anyone with an ounce of self-respect could still vote GOP is mind-boggling.
 

evident

Lifer
Apr 5, 2005
11,943
549
126
Here in bucks county there were a significant amount of "republicans for biden" signs... those voters most likely voted for Biden and then all R's down ticket. It doesnt help that we have a R congressmen that pretends to be bipartisan and even moderate dems lap it up too.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,018
49,799
136
I think quite a few people here are loads more insightful than I am, I'm glad I checked in this thread, learned a lot of good points from everyone here. Thanks for that.

After read through some posts, I believe Democrats lacked the following as key areas to improve down the line:

(1) no ground game, spent most $$ on TV ads, this election has shown the power of Obama's use of ground game as superior to TV ads or virtual meet ups. Republicans used it and they proved it to be quite effective.

(2) Biden didn't run on policy, didn't say what he'll do, unlike Obama, it's all about Trump. Anti-trump isn't a good reason to vote for Biden, it may spur on in-party voters but definitely not going to inspire too many votes on policies, because you got none. End up w/ enough vote against trump but nothing on down ballots.

So for starters, Biden needs to talk about his agenda moving forward, he hasn't done that during campaign.

(3) I like how Republicans put things in simple terms, build wall, socialist, elitists, death panel, obamacare etc. words that are simple and effective to convey the message that evokes feeling. Democrats need to learn that.

You are talking with average people not someone with PhD in English lit. And in campaigning you need simplistic emotion. I'd say Democrats should hire some Republican campaign managers and learn from them.

(4) I know Democrats have all these plan to save the planet, to do international trade etc. But you need to understand the consequence of those actions and how it affects the lives of rural communities. If you want to move in that direction, you need to pace it and make sure new jobs are waiting for people when the old ones disapear, otherwise you are incrediblly irreponsible and cruel.
But Biden talked about policy a TON! Like, all the time!
 

nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,909
1,933
136
DJT was such a cancer on the country that republicans came out in strong support against him. It's actually a positive sign that Trump was defeated, it's very hard to unseat an incumbent. He has name recognition, prior "successes", controls the government already, and can influence tremendously through the media. People feel comfortable with him even though he's a cancer, and look how many still voted for him.

Can you imagine if Trump actually held the same "policies and views" but didn't tweet, acted like an adult and didn't whine, and kept his mouth shut instead of putting hid foot in his mouth? He would have won a second term by a landslide. Be very glad he was such a piece of shit and couldn't help himself.
 
Reactions: thilanliyan
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |