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I think if you're going to look at what people should upgrade to, you have to know what kind of user they are. Most people who build their own systems fall into one of the following categorires:
1) Do-it-yourselfer: Generally, value minded, upgrades the entire system at once. For this user, I would recommend going with a good socket754 setup. The motherboards and cpu's are decently priced and offer great performance. They should stick with AGP for now and move to PCIe next time they upgrade. nForce3 and VIA chipsets are the way to go.
2) Overclockers: Most of the time the parts that overclock well and give the best bang for the buck will dictate what they will buy. The Sempron and lower clocked A64's look to be good overclockers as well as Northwood P4's in the mid 2Ghz range. These choices are only available in AGP at the moment, since the nForce3, VIA, and i865 are the choice chipsets for these platforms. I consider the overclocker a special hybrid of the do-it-yourselfer and the enthusiast, since they might also dabble in higher end gear, but most tend to buy mid to low range parts and tweak them to high end performance.
3) Enthusiasts: The enthusiast likes to upgrade and isn't afraid to spend some money on their rig, but not to the extreme. Generally, they get the faster off the shelf parts when they are fairly new, but aren't really good overclockers yet. The idea is that a little extra money will provide them with a fast enough system that will not need to be overclocked. This user buys a motherboard with the idea in mind that they will most likely upgrade the cpu and graphics card before they get a new motherboard. For this group, nForce4 is a good recommendation, it will allow for future cpu and graphics card upgrades to keep the system in the high end. The possibilty of adding a second video card in SLI after the prices drop for the current generation is also a bonus.
4) Ultra Extreme FX Platinum Edition Enthusiast: This is self explanitory. spending over $1200 on video cards!!!
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I do think that the ppl in the "Enthusiasts" do overclock well and are the ppl that buy the best up to a point & try to get the most of their systems. ie ppl who use water cooling or hardware raid cntrls. etc.
Put me down as a 3.5
Regards,
Jose