why have prices stagnated?

[pctwo]

maybe it's just the lower end where I'm looking at, but seems like prices have stagnated. for ex, the radeon 4770 was $100 after rebate on launch during April. now it's $110 and no more rebate. last october, a 9800GT could be had for $100 AR. It's still around that price. what the heck?

 

[spittledip]

I noticed the same thing. It is because of product placement. The prices have remained the same b/c all of ATI's new stuff performs at different levels than previous generation and Nvidia doesn't have an answer yet. There is no real reason to reduce prices. We won't see much in the way of reduced prices until Nvidia gets their new stuff out.

 

[Winterpool]

A variety of reasons creating a perfect storm of market shittiness for budget-minded enthusiasts. For example, 40nm production issues at TSMC affected supplies of the HD 4770, and we are seeing disappointing yields for the Radeon HD 5000s. Meanwhile older cards, eg the celebrated HD 4850 and 4870, are drying up, so they're no longer superaffordable. Whereas from a consumer perspective, it would have been ideal if there were a simultaneous glut of new HD 5000s and older 4800s.

And market competition is sorely lacking until nVidia gets something out.

 

[cusideabelincoln]

RAM prices have actually gone up since April, too. So I think the economy is playing a big role here as well.

 

[KamiXkaze]

Same here I notice that as well.

kXk

 

[Schmide]

Duh it's the weeks before Black Friday.

As for RAM, that's been trending for a bit. DDR2 up a lot DDR3 relatively down a little.

 

[nitromullet]

Duh it's the weeks before Black Friday.

As for RAM, that's been trending for a bit. DDR2 up a lot DDR3 relatively down a little.

DDR3 for notebooks (204-pin SoDIMM) has gone up over the past few weeks. All those college kids that bought laptops for back-to-school must be asking for RAM upgrades for Xmas.

As far as video cards go, I'm guessing that both ATI and NV expected to have 40nm parts in quantity this holiday season, and stopped ordering 55nm chips from TSMC. Since the 40nm chips are either scarce or non-existent, all the remaining 55nm chips are getting bought up.

EVGA isn't even offering step-up to anything higher than a GTX 260 in the US... http://www.evga.com/stepup/

 

[brblx]

Duh it's the weeks before Black Friday.

As for RAM, that's been trending for a bit. DDR2 up a lot DDR3 relatively down a little.

i think it's been more of a general trend that just this month.

over the past year or two, there has been a LOT of new stuff. recently, notsomuch. if technology is moving a little slower atm, that decreases in cost will also come slower.

 

[Idontcare]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND

US dollar strength is down some 10-15% since April...even if the pricetag stayed the same you are basically paying 10-15% less for the same goods because your dollars are worth that much less to the people selling you the goods.

 

[Winterpool]

The dollar's fall (or rather, its return to crappiness) since last winter's panic has affected some prices in very obvious ways, especially products from Europe (I prefer books from the UK, French wines, etc -- I've also noticed that the $ fees for certain European NSFW media sites have risen). But most of what geeks buy is made in China for Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean and Western companies. The reminbi exchange rate is fixed by the Chinese government, and from what I understand they dropped its value v the dollar during the panic, to maintain exports.

So theoretically consumer electronics can continue to be produced at low dollar prices; however, the dollar profits from sales in the US will translate into lower profits in currencies back home for the brand's shareholders (this has particularly hurt Japanese companies). I'm not sure how much Asian companies have been willing to raise $ prices at this time.

Now if, as many expect, the dollar declines to levels far worse than its pre-panic lows (owing to our burgeoning fiscal deficit, continuing trade deficits, etc), not even the Chinese may be willing to sustain low-dollar prices. The intellectual / political-economy side of me is quite curious to see what would happen next, even as the moneygrubbing side cowers in terror. The current unappealing prices, I suspect, are more the product of old-fashioned supply and demand (eg crappy 40nm yields) than the declining $, but as I said, it could still hurt us in the future.

 

[Skott]

RAM prices are expected to go up the rest of this year and into next year supposedly. Not enough supply coming out from the factories. Hopefully we'll see better deals starting Black Friday but I've heard reports that stores have been keeping inventory low on purpose this holiday year so thats not good for consumers looking for big sales discounts. Time will tell but I wouldn't expect huge huge discounts this year like we have seen in some years. It seems supplies are too low for the more popular hot items.

 

[Idontcare]

The dollar's fall (or rather, its return to crappiness) since last winter's panic has affected some prices in very obvious ways, especially products from Europe (I prefer books from the UK, French wines, etc -- I've also noticed that the $ fees for certain European NSFW media sites have risen). But most of what geeks buy is made in China for Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean and Western companies. The reminbi exchange rate is fixed by the Chinese government, and from what I understand they dropped its value v the dollar during the panic, to maintain exports.

So theoretically consumer electronics can continue to be produced at low dollar prices; however, the dollar profits from sales in the US will translate into lower profits in currencies back home for the brand's shareholders (this has particularly hurt Japanese companies). I'm not sure how much Asian companies have been willing to raise $ prices at this time.

Now if, as many expect, the dollar declines to levels far worse than its pre-panic lows (owing to our burgeoning fiscal deficit, continuing trade deficits, etc), not even the Chinese may be willing to sustain low-dollar prices. The intellectual / political-economy side of me is quite curious to see what would happen next, even as the moneygrubbing side cowers in terror. The current unappealing prices, I suspect, are more the product of old-fashioned supply and demand (eg crappy 40nm yields) than the declining $, but as I said, it could still hurt us in the future.

While it is true that the dollar's exchange rate to China's reminbi is pegged for all practical purposes, the cost of oil isn't and the cost of shipping stuff from Asia to the US rises alongside that rise in crude. That was a big problem for gross margins of retailers who sold lots of chinese imports last summer when crude hit $140.

FWIW the Taiwan Dollar is not pegged to the USD (TSMC is in Taiwan, not China) and the TWD has strengthened somewhat since this spring:

(I'm not trying to be argumentative, I think all your points are all valid, just filling out some of the details to round-out the currency exchange backstory a bit more)

Also we can't discount the fact that the GPU chip isn't the only cost-component that goes into making the graphics card and the story of 2009 is that everyone woefully under-invested in capex for fab buildouts this year and as such supply has no hope of catching up with demand for the coming years. (see more here and here)