Why the restless Chinese are warming to Russia's frozen east

[Albatross]

Text

If Russia begins losing control over the Far East to a resurgent China, the Kremlin will have to seek America's help. While Mr Putin's driving purpose is to show that Russia has the strength to stand alone, in the end America may be an indispensable ally to contain a rising China. Those steadily emptying forests in the Far East explain why.

from a geopolitical bird`s eye view this might be a catastrophe,but i woudn`t mind Russia breaking up.at least the chinese don`t drink themselves to death and are far more laborious.

 

[Jaskalas]

It is an interesting issue when demographics in a region change and yet nations attempt to retain their previous borders. The United States is facing a similar issue with our border to Mexico. Oh, our Southwest is heavily populated, but its population is increasingly foreign.

What becomes of these scenarios remains to be seen. The modern nation has not existed long enough to determine the result.

 

[Lemon law]

Even if the Russian far east is a prize of great wealth, its my guess that Russia and China will co-operate in exploiting it. Chinese man power and Russian continual ownership could be a win win for both countries.

And at the same time, Russia has a vast surplus of natural resources closer to home it will take centuries to fully exploit, so a co-operative deal with China makes good sense for both sides.

As it is, control of the region has changed hands many times by warfare, under Ghengus Khan, his hordes went as far west as Poland, and then in the next 100 years, China quit looking outward, and have not looked out ward again until the Death of Mao.

But even then, looking too far ahead into historical forces leaves everyone's crystal balls cloudy, especially when both China and Russia are nuclear armed.

 

[Genx87]

This has been an issue for at least a decade. I remember reading about this in the late 90s. China will eventually require more natural resources. Russia's far east is a very prized goal of China.

 

[piasabird]

Well if russia was to sell us some of their oil for a good price maybe we could make a deal. However, we want long-term contracts.

 

[senseamp]

Russia is a screwed up country where all the resources flow to Moscow first and foremost, and then get sent out to the provinces after being pillaged by the power elite. So everyone basically wants to be in Moscow, and no one wants to live in the provinces if they can help it. And every time the provinces try to obtain some degree of self governance and fix their own problems, Moscow comes around and puts them in their place, so to speak.

 

[Chaotic42]

I read somewhere that it would be cheaper for Russia to put all of the residents of Yakutia in 5-star hotels in the West than it is for Russia to sustain them out there.

 

[gevorg]

China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

 

[ebaycj]

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

Why take it by force and ensure an armed conflict when you can simply migrate across an open border? If the people living in Russia's "frozen east" are all loyal Chinese then it would be Chinese territory in all but name.

 

[gevorg]

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

China? With their second-rate copied/stolen military technology from US/Russia? LOL!

Nukes is the only way to go with an overpopulated country like China.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: gevorg

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

China? With their second-rate copied/stolen military technology from US/Russia? LOL!

Nukes is the only way to go with an overpopulated country like China.

Russia would have to depend on it's nuclear deterrent as it has no choice.

Russia could never repel a conventional invasion by the Chinese on their own. They simply don't have the manpower or effective units anymore to do it. The majority of the Russian military went to rot after the end of the Cold War.

 

[Whitecloak]

the bear and the dragon

 

[SammyJr]

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

You've just described a neocon wet dream.

 

[gevorg]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: gevorg

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: gevorg
China can salivate over Russian resources all they want, but the only way they can get it is if they pay for it.

... or they could attempt to take it by force.

China? With their second-rate copied/stolen military technology from US/Russia? LOL!

Nukes is the only way to go with an overpopulated country like China.

Russia would have to depend on it's nuclear deterrent as it has no choice.

Russia could never repel a conventional invasion by the Chinese on their own. They simply don't have the manpower or effective units anymore to do it. The majority of the Russian military went to rot after the end of the Cold War.

What idiot would consider fighting China with conventional weapons? Even US would resort to nuclear weapons.

 

[nullzero]

China does not have enough area or warheads to win against the U.S. or Russia when it comes to nuclear war. 8 well placed high yield nukes would be the end of China. China would then be left with only a few nuclear ballistic capable subs that could counter strike with low yield nukes.

 

[babylon5]

Love all these fantasy war scenarios.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: nullzero
China does not have enough area or warheads to win against the U.S. or Russia when it comes to nuclear war. 8 well placed high yield nukes would be the end of China. China would then be left with only a few nuclear ballistic capable subs that could counter strike with low yield nukes.

8? The largest nukes ever detonated (that we know about) left a 10 mile wide crater. I think it was 60 megatons. Even 8 of those would not even come close to devastating China. Sure, we may knock them down, but it definitely wouldn't even come close to being the end of China.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: nullzero
China does not have enough area or warheads to win against the U.S. or Russia when it comes to nuclear war. 8 well placed high yield nukes would be the end of China. China would then be left with only a few nuclear ballistic capable subs that could counter strike with low yield nukes.

If the Russians didn't catch all the Chinese ICBMs in their silos in a sneak attack they could say goodbye to their largest 10 or 20 cities.

China maintains a credible deterrence even if not on numerical parity with other nuclear powers.

 

[Dari]

There was a ceremony a couple of months ago where the Russians returned some (is)lands back to the Chinese. No doubt the Chinese may just start buying them.

 

[JTsyo]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: nullzero
China does not have enough area or warheads to win against the U.S. or Russia when it comes to nuclear war. 8 well placed high yield nukes would be the end of China. China would then be left with only a few nuclear ballistic capable subs that could counter strike with low yield nukes.

8? The largest nukes ever detonated (that we know about) left a 10 mile wide crater. I think it was 60 megatons. Even 8 of those would not even come close to devastating China. Sure, we may knock them down, but it definitely wouldn't even come close to being the end of China.

look at a population density map for China. Most of the population is in the east. The rest is very lightly populated. While the nukes wouldn't bring China's population to zero, it would stop China from being a functional country.


Also the biggest nuke was Ivan, it was designed to be a 100 megaton bomb but they scaled it back to 50.

On topic though, I think LL has the right idea. A war will cost much more than the resources are worth when talking about nuclear armed forces. Russia can't take on China without nukes and they can't just let China have the land after a conventional war, they would be forced to use nukes. If they work together both can profit.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Russia is a screwed up country where all the resources flow to Moscow first and foremost, and then get sent out to the provinces after being pillaged by the power elite. So everyone basically wants to be in Moscow, and no one wants to live in the provinces if they can help it. And every time the provinces try to obtain some degree of self governance and fix their own problems, Moscow comes around and puts them in their place, so to speak.

You could replace Moscow with DC.