Will AMD Phenom beat CD2???

Gikaseixas

Platinum Member
Jul 1, 2004
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I think this is the question we have to answer or at least express our point of view based on the short tests that are poping out around the net.

Before making your point please consider that a desktop designed motherboard that allows the chip to run at DDR800 or DDR1066 will be available also. Another thing is price which i think AMD will be agressive (well they don't have much choice).
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
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Not unless a miracle happens. Look at early Final Opteron vs. Final Athlon 64 product. Was there a sudden extra huge boost in performance per clock? Nope. Given Barcelona's IPC (~15% better than Opteron, best case), Phenom would have to boost performance by a HUGE margin for a 2.4Ghz processor to hold a candle even to today's 3Ghz Q6850. Not going to happen. AMD is down for the count on the desktop, they're going to have to price these things like Durons to make them move, and they need K11 yesterday.
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
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I'm personally curious how they are going to perform in gaming. Sure the preview gives us some hints but gaming is one area where lower latency non server memory may pay a huge dividend.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
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Originally posted by: Stoneburner
I'm personally curious how they are going to perform in gaming. Sure the preview gives us some hints but gaming is one area where lower latency non server memory may pay a huge dividend.

AMD's on-die memory controller negates the impact of memory. This has been true all the way back from the first single-core 1.4Ghz Opterons all the way up to the 3.2Ghz X2s. Going from DDR400 to DDR2-533 to 667, 800 ... it's never made more than a couple of % at best.
 

Accord99

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2001
2,259
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No, given that with TechReport's more workstation type benchmarks the 2GHz Clovertown is already faster than the 2GHz Barcelona.

Originally posted by: Gikaseixas
Before making your point please consider that a desktop designed motherboard that allows the chip to run at DDR800 or DDR1066 will be available also.
And it'll also be going up against C2Ds that are also on desktop designed motherboards with faster memory.
 

JackPack

Member
Jan 11, 2006
92
0
0
No.

Keep in mind Barcelona has a L3 cache. The job of the L3 is to reduce memory traffic. It's going to mitigate the effects of moving up to DDR2-800 or 1066. The L3 also increases latency because to get to the main memory, it has to go through this 20ns L3 roadblock. One or two additional cycles from registered DDR2 isn't going to change a whole lot.
 

jones377

Senior member
May 2, 2004
451
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Which makes me wonder if performance would even suffer at all (on desktop benchmarks) if this L3 was removed entirely. IIRC there is a version coming out without L3 so we might find out eventually.
 

soonerproud

Golden Member
Jun 30, 2007
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There is a lot of speculation going on here. I am personally going to reserve judgment until actual Phenom processors are benchmarked. Amd could surprise us all with tweaks to the architecture and manufacturing process by the time the Phenom processors see the light of day.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
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I did not vote because it is not obvious to me which metric of success you are intending to compare the two microarchitectures by.

IPC? performance/watt? absolute performance? Performance/$$? Same GHz? etc.

I am quite confident that a 3 GHz Phenom will "beat" a 1.86 GHz Conroe. But does that answer a question worth asking?
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
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Originally posted by: Arkaign
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
I'm personally curious how they are going to perform in gaming. Sure the preview gives us some hints but gaming is one area where lower latency non server memory may pay a huge dividend.

AMD's on-die memory controller negates the impact of memory. This has been true all the way back from the first single-core 1.4Ghz Opterons all the way up to the 3.2Ghz X2s. Going from DDR400 to DDR2-533 to 667, 800 ... it's never made more than a couple of % at best.

Gary Key's has hinted otherwise.
 

Gikaseixas

Platinum Member
Jul 1, 2004
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Originally posted by: Idontcare
I did not vote because it is not obvious to me which metric of success you are intending to compare the two microarchitectures by.

IPC? performance/watt? absolute performance? Performance/$$? Same GHz? etc.

I am quite confident that a 3 GHz Phenom will "beat" a 1.86 GHz Conroe. But does that answer a question worth asking?

General performance, meaning all included

With that said you're not confident that a Phenom @ 1.9 GHz will match a 1.86 GHz CD2?
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Originally posted by: soonerproud
There is a lot of speculation going on here. I am personally going to reserve judgment until actual Phenom processors are benchmarked. Amd could surprise us all with tweaks to the architecture and manufacturing process by the time the Phenom processors see the light of day.

Agreed. Though I tend to be on the side thinking Phenom will be a disappointment, there's really no reason to bicker about it until we've got the chips.
 

ebeattie

Senior member
May 22, 2005
328
0
0
As alot have said, all we can do now is speculate. No reason whatsoever to try and prove ideas as fact that are only plausible theories at BEST. Does anyone have a true Phenom on desktop with tweaks and a bios review? No. If you love Intel and will use nothing but Intel GREAT! But please dont let that try to pollute a chip launch thats hasnt even been properly reviewed simply because its AMD.

Let the preview tell!
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
I am assuming that your referring to the performance crown. AMD has zero chance of getting the performance crown.

That doesn't mean that AMD is out of the game. This is really funny because AMD success all boils down to Penryn . If AMD can't get to Meroms performance level . Than Intel can optimize penryn for efficiency. This will really hurt AMD. Now if K10 can push by Meroms performance. That forces Intel to optimize for performance and effciency. That would be of great help to AMD .

Since Nehalem has been in the planning stages longer than Fusion . This could have put a ting in Intels tick tock . As it was unexpected move by AMD. If AMD gets fusion right. This could be really interesting.

But once we get to Geshner thats the end of the game nothing is going to change that.
 

covert24

Golden Member
Feb 24, 2006
1,810
1
76
i agree with most of the people in here in that you cant justify something that has not yet been proven. no need to make a thread on something that no one knows. we already have the Barcelona thread for that....
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
Originally posted by:

But once we get to Geshner thats the end of the game nothing is going to change that.


Speculation is nice and all, but this seems beyond premature...

 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
amd has definitely made up some ground with (finally!) their release of barcelona, but they are going to lose some of it back before phenom is more than a couple of months old when penryn comes out. I think that the best amd can hope for is great scaling and a 3 ghz chip by Q2 08. Both very optimistic but certainly at least possible. Let's just say that the chips scale so well that we see an overal 15 % clock for clock advantage for phenom over penryn, that means that intel would need a 3.45 ghz penryn to match phenom. Penryn is going to release at 3.33, so it's reasonable to assume that they could easily ramp up to 3.5 or 3.66 in a hurry if necessary by Q2 08, but even if they couldn't, nehalem is going to paste both penryn AND phenom in 2H 08. The best that we consumers can hope for is for amd to be so competitive that intel pushes out nehalem as fast as possible. I personally think that penryn will be so dominant that nehalem will get delayed until 09.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
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Originally posted by: bryanW1995
amd has definitely made up some ground with (finally!) their release of barcelona, but they are going to lose some of it back before phenom is more than a couple of months old when penryn comes out. I think that the best amd can hope for is great scaling and a 3 ghz chip by Q2 08. Both very optimistic but certainly at least possible. Let's just say that the chips scale so well that we see an overal 15 % clock for clock advantage for phenom over penryn, that means that intel would need a 3.45 ghz penryn to match phenom. Penryn is going to release at 3.33, so it's reasonable to assume that they could easily ramp up to 3.5 or 3.66 in a hurry if necessary by Q2 08, but even if they couldn't, nehalem is going to paste both penryn AND phenom in 2H 08. The best that we consumers can hope for is for amd to be so competitive that intel pushes out nehalem as fast as possible. I personally think that penryn will be so dominant that nehalem will get delayed until 09.

Considering that AMD has already demonstrated a 3 GHz Phenom, I think your estimate of Q2 may be a bit pessimistic...
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona), which says to me that AMD will be binning the Agena at higher than they normally would for launch to make way for another product change by then.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: bryanW1995
amd has definitely made up some ground with (finally!) their release of barcelona, but they are going to lose some of it back before phenom is more than a couple of months old when penryn comes out. I think that the best amd can hope for is great scaling and a 3 ghz chip by Q2 08. Both very optimistic but certainly at least possible. Let's just say that the chips scale so well that we see an overal 15 % clock for clock advantage for phenom over penryn, that means that intel would need a 3.45 ghz penryn to match phenom. Penryn is going to release at 3.33, so it's reasonable to assume that they could easily ramp up to 3.5 or 3.66 in a hurry if necessary by Q2 08, but even if they couldn't, nehalem is going to paste both penryn AND phenom in 2H 08. The best that we consumers can hope for is for amd to be so competitive that intel pushes out nehalem as fast as possible. I personally think that penryn will be so dominant that nehalem will get delayed until 09.

Considering that AMD has already demonstrated a 3 GHz Phenom, I think your estimate of Q2 may be a bit pessimistic...
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona), which says to me that AMD will be binning the Agena at higher than they normally would for launch to make way for another product change by then.

1chip that is hand selected is alot different than getting thousands of them out in the market.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: cmdrdredd
Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: bryanW1995
amd has definitely made up some ground with (finally!) their release of barcelona, but they are going to lose some of it back before phenom is more than a couple of months old when penryn comes out. I think that the best amd can hope for is great scaling and a 3 ghz chip by Q2 08. Both very optimistic but certainly at least possible. Let's just say that the chips scale so well that we see an overal 15 % clock for clock advantage for phenom over penryn, that means that intel would need a 3.45 ghz penryn to match phenom. Penryn is going to release at 3.33, so it's reasonable to assume that they could easily ramp up to 3.5 or 3.66 in a hurry if necessary by Q2 08, but even if they couldn't, nehalem is going to paste both penryn AND phenom in 2H 08. The best that we consumers can hope for is for amd to be so competitive that intel pushes out nehalem as fast as possible. I personally think that penryn will be so dominant that nehalem will get delayed until 09.

Considering that AMD has already demonstrated a 3 GHz Phenom, I think your estimate of Q2 may be a bit pessimistic...
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona), which says to me that AMD will be binning the Agena at higher than they normally would for launch to make way for another product change by then.

1chip that is hand selected is alot different than getting thousands of them out in the market.

True, but you're making the assumption that yields are poor. If you go through Hector's more recent interviews where he admits the problems of Barcelona's tardiness, he is quite adamant about the fact that it was a design issue with rev B0, and not a yield or binning issue. If that is indeed the case, then there's no reason to assume that 3 GHz won't be available in production quantities on the newer rev.
It's true that there's no evidence either way, but most everyone with "inside connections" has been indicating that Phenom will be clocked VERY high (at least quite near the 3 GHz mark) on release...take it for what you will.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
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et's just say that the chips scale so well that we see an overal 15 % clock for clock advantage for phenom over penryn, that means that intel would need a 3.45 ghz penryn to match phenom.

Since we're doing Phenom vs. Penryn, not Barcelona vs. Clovertown, I'd say there is no chance in hell Phenom will beat, or even match Penryn at same clock speed. Did you not see the benchmarks of Barcelona vs. Dual Opteron desktop app benchmarks from Anand?? Purely looking at that alone, it looks like Phenom will be fair bit behind Conroe(in single thread)/Kentsfield(in multi-thread), let alone Penryn.

Even worse, someone has pointed out that Quad FX setups are sometimes quite a bit slower than the Athlon X2 setups at the same clock. Barcelona showed 21% advantage in Oblivion against Dual Opteron. Look on the QX6850 review: http://www.anandtech.com/cpuch...owdoc.aspx?i=3038&p=15

Athlon FX 3.0 is 17% faster than Quad FX 3.0. If same holds true for Dual Opteron as it did with Quad FX, then we would see Barcelona is only less than 4% faster than Opteron per clock. Tech report results show that in workstation apps, which Barcelona should be comparatively better, has lots of situations where its slower per clock than Kentsfield.

Since Penryn is 5-10% faster than Conroe, the deficit will be in AMD's side, meaning they would need 3.4GHz Phenom to equal 3.0GHz Penryn. Since Penryn is coming at 3.33GHz with EE, AMD would need 3.7-3.8. Not likely.

On Intel platforms where performance is more chipset bound than AMD's since Intel platforms don't use integrated memory controller, the performance difference between best and worst variest at most 5%, averaging 2-3%. Phenom not only has integrated IMC to negate much of the differences that variations of memory controllers have, it even has L3 cache and a superior IMC than Athlon X2, meaning it'll be even less sensitive in theory.
 

zsdersw

Lifer
Oct 29, 2003
10,560
2
0
Originally posted by: Viditor
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona)

If that's going to occur, we should've seen the 45nm tape-out by now.. or will have to see it very soon.

 

jones377

Senior member
May 2, 2004
451
47
91
Originally posted by: zsdersw
Originally posted by: Viditor
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona)

If that's going to occur, we should've seen the 45nm tape-out by now.. or will have to see it very soon.
Tape-out to release is usually a year or more, especially when it involves a new microarchitecture or a new process. I wouldn't count on a Q2 release unless someone can show me a statement from AMD that says Shanghai has already taped out.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: jones377
Originally posted by: zsdersw
Originally posted by: Viditor
Remember that Shanghai is due in Q2/Q3 2008 (45nm Barcelona)

If that's going to occur, we should've seen the 45nm tape-out by now.. or will have to see it very soon.
Tape-out to release is usually a year or more, especially when it involves a new microarchitecture or a new process. I wouldn't count on a Q2 release unless someone can show me a statement from AMD that says Shanghai has already taped out.

9 months to a year is correct (1 year being more common)...and I haven't seen a tape-out announcement either. That said, it is still in their roadmap (though I certainly don't disagree with the skepticism here...).

Edit: BTW, I believe that Penryn will be a 9 month lead from tape-out for their first chip...
 
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