Will cloud computing make desktop PCs obsolete?

[Ken90630]

OK, so I'm new to this thing called "cloud computing." There was some show on CNBC last week -- I think it was a profile of Google (the company itself) -- and some bigwig there was saying their goal is to get the whole world to do its computing in the cloud (of their design, of course).

Recovering from the jolt of such a bold aspiration/prediction, several questions came to mind:

1. How would Google ever convince the public to trust them (Google) with all their files & documents? AFAIC, there aren't any words Google could use to get me to ever do such a thing. My stuff is staying on my HD and/or portable flash drives, not their servers. Don't I trust them? Uh,no. (duh)

2. Would the transformation to cloud computing kill the careers of computer techs everywhere? With no 'box' to fix, why would they be needed anymore? No hard drives to replace, no malware dragons to slay, no software to install, no RAM to add, etc. Do all techs need to start planning for a career change?

3. People would still have to have a 'box' of some sort to connect to the cloud in the first place, right? So what would that be if not a PC? Some sort of minimal O.S. running on a flash drive, plugged into newly-designed cable/DSL modems or something, just to 'log on'? But you'd still need a keyboard & mouse to operate in the cloud once in, wouldn't you? Or is Google secretly developing a way to tap into our brain waves? :sneaky: (Umm, don't answer that.)

4. Is this all just pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking on the part of Google and/or Microsoft, or is this in fact gonna happen whether I like it or not?

 

[beginner99]

IMHO if it ever gets that far, it will be in decades. There just is not enough bandwidth for data. It's already now rather problematic. Example would be your home made HD movies. They can easily be several GB in size. And now you shoudl first upload them before you can edit them? forget it, as we knwo upload sucks even more than download speed.

And as long as there are other options from the cloud (=desktop) I will always choose that one. Plus cloud is just a synonym to mainframe which is like very old tech.

 

[lxskllr]

IMHO if it ever gets that far, it will be in decades. There just is not enough bandwidth for data. It's already now rather problematic. Example would be your home made HD movies. They can easily be several GB in size. And now you shoudl first upload them before you can edit them? forget it, as we knwo upload sucks even more than download speed.

And as long as there are other options from the cloud (=desktop) I will always choose that one. Plus cloud is just a synonym to mainframe which is like very old tech.

Not only bandwidth, but network in general. It needs to get to the point where there's ALWAYS a network connection, and it works without input from the user. You need to be able and pull out your device knowing it's connected, no matter where you are. Until that happens, network applications are a niche product, and not ready for the general population.

 

[DJK Frank 16]

Not in our lifetime.

 

[wuliheron]

OK, so I'm new to this thing called "cloud computing." There was some show on CNBC last week -- I think it was a profile of Google (the company itself) -- and some bigwig there was saying their goal is to get the whole world to do its computing in the cloud (of their design, of course).

Recovering from the jolt of such a bold aspiration/prediction, several questions came to mind:

1. How would Google ever convince the public to trust them (Google) with all their files & documents? AFAIC, there aren't any words Google could use to get me to ever do such a thing. My stuff is staying on my HD and/or portable flash drives, not their servers. Don't I trust them? Uh,no. (duh)

Yeah, yeah, and I'm sure Coca Cola's corporate goal is for everyone in the world to drink soda.

2. Would the transformation to cloud computing kill the careers of computer techs everywhere? With no 'box' to fix, why would they be needed anymore? No hard drives to replace, no malware dragons to slay, no software to install, no RAM to add, etc. Do all techs need to start planning for a career change?

Whether cloud computing succeeds or not the simple fact is electronics eventually become cheap and disposable. There used to be electronic repair shops for your TV, stereo, and VCR. Now they've all had to convert to computers or go out of business. Inevitably your average pc will be a tiny box that you either mail back to the manufacturer or throw away.

3. People would still have to have a 'box' of some sort to connect to the cloud in the first place, right? So what would that be if not a PC? Some sort of minimal O.S. running on a flash drive, plugged into newly-designed cable/DSL modems or something, just to 'log on'? But you'd still need a keyboard & mouse to operate in the cloud once in, wouldn't you? Or is Google secretly developing a way to tap into our brain waves? :sneaky: (Umm, don't answer that.)

4. Is this all just pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking on the part of Google and/or Microsoft, or is this in fact gonna happen whether I like it or not?

I think cloud computing can have some advantages, but like these guys say the bandwidth just isn't there yet. The biggest problem is that optical fibers can't be seriously multiplexed yet. Once that is possible then the whole infrastructure will change.

The same thing occurred with telegraph wires once people figured out how to send multiplexed telephone signals over a single cable. When that happens for fiber optics the change will be just as dramatic as going from a telegraph office in every town to a phone in every home. However, we can only speculate about exactly how all that new bandwidth will be used. Probably like everything else we'll just have more variety in our lives rather then just one way of doing things.

 

[mammador]

The security issue is key IMO. For widespread use of cloud computing, tit has to be proven to be secure enough to use.

As for outdated techs, well so what? There still needs to be an interfacef to connect to the Web anyhow. Perhaps just a basic OS, which has all functions, support, etc. based online. So there would have to be a basic RAM, ROM, and processor onboard. If this device has a camera for example, there needs to be a ROM to run it.

 

[Cogman]

Not until the web becomes more stable, especially in rural and crowded areas.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

not a chance, internet infrastructure is likely decades behind where it would need to be for that to happen

gigabit ethernet is already a significant downgrade from internal system bandwidth let alone adding the internet (which averages well below 10megabit/1megabit down/up) as a bottleneck

 

[JackMDS]

Quote: "Will cloud computing make desktop PCs obsolete"?

It will replace a the PCs in the same manner that the Pet Rock is currently the preferred pet.

For those who are too young to know what Pet Rock is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Rock

 

[DJK Frank 16]

Quote: "Will cloud computing make desktop PCs obsolete"?

It will replace a the PCs in the same manner that the Pet Rock is currently the preferred pet.

For those who are too young to know what Pet Rock is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Rock

Lol nice!

 

[Texashiker]

I just do no see playing left 4 dead 2 from a cloud based solution. The files / maps are still going to have to be loaded to my system. And when your talking about some files being 500 megs, it would take a hour to download those files from a cloud based service.

For cloud computing to replace the desktop, your probably going to have to have fiber piped into every house.

 

[Fayd]

I just do no see playing left 4 dead 2 from a cloud based solution. The files / maps are still going to have to be loaded to my system. And when your talking about some files being 500 megs, it would take a hour to download those files from a cloud based service.

For cloud computing to replace the desktop, your probably going to have to have fiber piped into every house.

http://www.onlive.com/

 

[gsellis]

More than 3 9's will be required. .999 is 8 hours a year of outage. My Charter node for home has had only 1 9 every other year. A PKI infrastructure for dummies will also have to work.

 

[MrEgo]

I think that is where we're approaching, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

 

[VinDSL]

[...] is this in fact gonna happen whether I like it or not?

No Fn'g way! F* that new world order bs! All they want to do is burglarize your info/data, and slap you down, if you get too cocky.

Cloud computing requires a cloud, e.g. an internet connection, and...

If you didn't pay attention to Egypt, the past three weeks, they turned the cloud off.

Obama has the same power now, aka "The Internet Switch".

The latest trend, amongst ppl that want to protect their freedoms, is dial-up networking.

Yes, you read that right!

It's MUCH harder to turn off the telephone networks than the web/cloud, and peer-to-peer dial-up networks are making a resurgence, believe it or not.

Ppl are scouring thrift shops and flea markets looking for high-speed modems, as we 'speak'.

Bwahahahaha! There's more than one way to skin a cat!

 

[Texashiker]

onlive.com

I think your referring to games that have been ported to html - like Quakelive and Quake II was ported to HTML5.

 

[mammador]

I heard that Chrome OS will be cloud-based. Anything that can challenge Windows lol.

 

[plion]

especially with isps going backwards like comcast and their 250gb cap

 

[bunnyfubbles]

I think your referring to games that have been ported to html - like Quakelive and Quake II was ported to HTML5.

no he's not, onlive works by just streaming video of the game to you, the problem with onlive though is the same with all cloud computing, it requires incredibly fast internet and you ideally want to be as close as possible to the server that's streaming to you otherwise latency is going to be above and beyond ridiculous and make playing real time games a total drag

 

[corkyg]

It won't happen in my house in my lifetime. The cloud is frought with security risk - e.g., Wikileaks. I value my privacy too much to trust Microsoft or Google or ??? It also leaves you at the mercy of government.

 

[Texashiker]

especially with isps going backwards like comcast and their 250gb cap

My isp has a 10 gig per month cap.

I dont know why anyone would ever need 250gig per month.

 

[KeypoX]

My isp has a 10 gig per month cap.

I dont know why anyone would ever need 250gig per month.

im over 90GB already this month.

 

[VinDSL]

It won't happen in my house in my lifetime. The cloud is frought with security risk - e.g., Wikileaks. I value my privacy too much to trust Microsoft or Google or ??? It also leaves you at the mercy of government.

Hear, Hear!

 

[Jeff7181]

Not yet, but it absolutely as the potential. I think initially, especially in the business world, it'll be more like a thin client and a terminal connection to a virtual machine. Imagine... your VM running on a 128 core, 256 thread machine with 128 GB of memory along with a bunch of other users. They're idle, and you need to compile something. So rather than your 4 core, 8 thread processor with 8 GB of RAM, you have access to maybe 75% of the computing power of that server. Your task finishes in 2 minutes rather than 45.

Basically all the thin client and network need to be capable of is running a Remote Desktop session. My iPhone is pretty good at that and my 12/1.5 Mbit UVerse is overkill for that, so we're not far off from a "thin client" that's basically a KVM for people that need access to a ton of computing resources some of the time.

 

[CKTurbo128]

In the U.S., given it's current network infrastructure, not likely anytime soon.

However, in other countries like South Korea & Japan, where 1 Gbps service is beginning to roll out for residential users at affordable prices (~$30 per month), WiMax coverage readily available, and mobile devices like smart phones, tablets, netbooks, and laptops dominating sales over desktop PCs, it's highly likely that cloud computing will take off in those countries rather sooner than later.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/technology/22iht-broadband22.html?src=busln

Of course, even with sufficient bandwidth, desktop PCs won't completely go extinct, since power users like gamers and professional users will always need the raw power of the latest CPU/GPUs. However, for the vast majority of casual PC users that require only the basics (web browsing and e-mail capabilities), I could see the desktop PC becoming obsolete for them in the future.