Will our hobby die?

[Arachnotronic]

So, I've been reading all these doom 'n gloom articles about the desktop PC (and x86) and I'm coming to think that our hobby of building these awesome, fast desktops, upgrading them, and tweaking them is going to come to an end within 5 years or so.

How many of you are worried about this? I know I'm feeling pretty lousy about it myself. I think I'll buy myself 2x GCN cards from AMD + i7 3930K this year since I don't know how long this hobby will survive!

 

[Vic Vega]

I remember in the mid 90s when Gateway was selling their "$1,000.00 Pentium" PC and everyone said the enthusiast market would be destroyed by such cheap, mass produced PCs. Well, here we are, almost 20 years later.

 

[GTSRguy]

The trend is defiantly moving forward laptops instead of desktops, and tablets instead of laptops. Will it ever die? Nope. There will always be the need for maximum performance, for example a work setting. Or at least i think..

 

[Smartazz]

While there has been a push toward laptops and tablets thanks to a tremendous increase in computing power, desktops definitely still have their uses. If anything, I want an ultra portable laptop like the MBA and a powerful desktop for when I need more muscle.

 

[God Mode]

I can see how less choices in commoditized hardware in addition to locked cpus only will eventually kill the small enthusiast market. When I see kids these days, most of them have no interest in tinkering like the previous generations. I feel that its becoming a niche hobby more and more each day. Late model cool stuff that young people used to be able to afford are now being marketed and sold as 'enterprise' hardware with steep markups. These companies hold all the patents so no new player can really replace what was lost.

 

[mmaestro]

I think we'll be around for a while yet, but I expect that the desktop market will be reduced to the workstation/server market in another 5 years or so, and then just the server market as everything's virtualized. But in that world, there'll still be space for us to build systems with that server hardware. Choices I expect will be more limited, and eventually there'll be a question of the usefulness of what the enthusiast community does, but I think it'll be a while yet before there aren't components and cases for us to buy.

 

[Smartazz]

As Vic Vega has said, this doom and gloom scenario has been predicted before. Regardless, let's ride it out and enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[TakeNoPrisoners]

I sure hope not. Nothing more satisfying than carefully selecting the right components over a period of months and then ordering them and putting them together and getting exactly what you wanted rather than somebody elses idea of what exactly we want.

 

[gevorg]

Video cards are the main reason why many of us stick with desktops. Starting with Sandy Bridge mobile line, the CPU performance became more than enough for most PC gaming. As soon as there is a technology that will allow the use external video cards with laptops, the desktop PC market will begin to shrink, IMHO. Is Thunderbolt and its derivatives is the answer? We'll see. Also, the doom will start when on-die GPU will have the performance of mid-range GPUs. Sandy Bridge is already on the toes of entry-level GPUs. There always will be a niche that loves to overclock to the extreme, hence the desktop will never die until some new revolutionary product in computing.

 

[RussianSensation]

I think the real threat to PC is that most people are buying a laptop/tablet/smartphone for their office work/email/internet browsing and they are getting consoles to play games. A modern laptop consumes less power, is portable, has decent quality screen and is fast enough for just about anything (and feels just as snappy with an SSD). Unfortunately, I think a lot of people simply don't know or don't want to learn how to assemble a PC.

- More and more jobs involve travelling as a result of globalization and companies selling products/services across the world now (a desktop isn't suitable for this type of lifestyle),

- The 9-5 / 40 hour work-week is quickly disappearing. Many companies want their employees to work from home (after the regular 9-5) (i.e., they give you a laptop so you can't say that it's too heavy to bring home!), so on a corporate level there is a huge incentive to shift away from desktops (unless you need all the power you can get),

- People want to have constant access to information 24/7, no matter where they are (a desktop can't provide that),

- A lot of main disadvantages of laptops are in the past (battery life is now 7-9 hours long, performance is plenty fast, laptops are thin and light, and screen resolution is much improved with 1080P options),

- It's trendy to be seen with a MacBook Air but hardly anyone can see your $5,000 desktop PC. In other words, I hardly imagine that the new generation which is growing up today finds a desktop "sexy" or "desirable" or "fashionable",

- Also, the "green movement" isn't helping desktops which take up more space and consume a lot more power than a laptop/tablet/smartphone.

I can see how for the majority of the new generation of consumers it simply doesn't make sense to buy a desktop anymore. Although I believe there is still some growth on the desktop side, even if very small. When we start to see consecutive years of declining desktop shipments, then we can start worrying. I don't think we are there just yet.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

i predict that the desktop pc market will become small enough that the industry will raise prices on desktop parts. five years from now the average desktop pc will cost $3000

 

[apoppin]

Who cares if everything goes mobile? i took my notebook completely apart (and put it back together) and i think i could build one.

As soon as there is a technology that will allow the use external video cards with laptops, the desktop PC market will begin to shrink, IMHO.

And there IS a technology that uses external video cards with notebooks
--AMD demoed it at CES 2010

at

 

[Jhatfie]

I hope it will not die. Like others, I enjoy being able to pick out my components, choose a case with the style and dimensions that I want and extract extra performance regardless of if I really need the extra power or not. It is similar to what I do to my car: Put on 20" forgestar F14 wheels, R2C intake, Borla catback exhaust, LED interior lights, Eibach springs, EBC brake pads, etc. Do I need more than 300hp, no...but 325 sure is a bit more fun when I use it.

Modding. tweaking and building is a little reflection of my personality. By doing it I feel more connected with the technology. I do not want them to end up becoming just an appliance. Might as well as have someone pick out my clothes and my dinner too.

 

[soccerballtux]

Who cares if everything goes mobile? i took my notebook completely apart (and put it back together) and i think i could build one.



And there IS a technology that uses external video cards with notebooks
--AMD demoed it at CES 2010

at

where you been bro long time now see

 

[drizek]

What I've come to realize is that the future of high end computers is all about virtualization.

If you think all a computer is for is typing documents and hcecking email, ya, you don't need a desktop. In fact, hook your phone up with HDMI and a bluetooth keyboard and even that will be good enough.

What a desktop is for is running virtual servers, virtual "photoshops", virtual "light rooms", virtual sound studios, virtual instruments and so on.

 

[Shawn]

I've still got my desktop and am using it now, but I find that I use my laptop more and more. The only real reason I have to keep my desktop is I have a few terrabytes of storage on here as well as a really nice DL DVD burner. But my laptop has a Blu-ray drive and is probably faster than the C2D I have in my desktop.

If I do end up getting a new desktop I'll probably get one of the cheap prebuilt ones for a few hundred bucks that is a ton better than what I have now. Kinda sad, seeing as several years ago I wouldn't even think of buying a prebuilt computer.

 

[apoppin]

where you been bro long time now see

Hi. How have you been? i have been busy with my own tech site. Lots of research, benching and reviews to do. i got 5 months into a S3D investigation (besides my other work) and there isn't much time for me to post here as i used to do. i check in only once about once a week for PMs and will sometime post in an interesting thread.

i saw that external graphics was brought up for notebooks; AMD is working with their partners on this. It uses an external PCIe bus but the adoption rate is slow.

 

[paperwastage]

Hi. How have you been? i have been busy with my own tech site. Lots of research, benching and reviews to do. i got 5 months into a S3D investigation (besides my other work) and there isn't much time for me to post here as i used to do. i check in only once about once a week for PMs and will sometime post in an interesting thread.

i saw that external graphics was brought up for notebooks; AMD is working with their partners on this. It uses an external PCIe bus but the adoption rate is slow.

currently you can hack a Expresscard (pcie x1 link) and optionally a mPCIe slot(second pcie x1 link) to get a x1-x2 bandwidth, some hardware to load up your GPU to those two connectors

commercially, it's called ViDock(only Expresscard last i checked and expensive), but there are "DIY ViDock" that uses x2

DIY ViDock, parts < $150 plus a video card+PSU of your choice
http://forum.notebookreview.com/gaming-software-graphics-cards/418851-diy-egpu-experiences.html

people are hoping Thunderbolt will adopt faster for better thoroughput

 

[wuliheron]

I studied stereos and it used to be fairly common for people to build their own stereo. Like a modern PC it was significantly cheaper. Eventually it became cheaper to buy one, but not until the technology had matured. It required DVDs and MP3s to make the old technology obsolete. Once people had that kind of fidelity in a cheap package building your own stereo became all but unheard of.

However, we've got at least 10-20 years before video games achieve real time ray tracing. That's a long way to go before building your own even begins to become obsolete.

 

[podspi]

Perhaps DIYing your own desktop will all but die out, but there will always be something on the horizon. The big thing nowadays is rolling your own Android distro on your cell phone. I never thought I'd be messing with a cell's OS.

Jury is still out on whether I've actually improved my phone or not, it gives me a heck of a lot of trouble sometimes, and I only ran it stock for 2 days... I just couldn't resist...

 

[StarTech]

My entry into electronics as a hobby was crystal radio, when I was 15. Then later a 5 tube radio from scratch. As time went I built a number of tube amplifiers. I had friends that built TVs.

All that is gone. No one will even think of building a TV today.

Later late 70s I built an 8080 based microcomputer from scratch. It barely did nothing, but it did it. There is no way I could do that with today's components.

Later in the 80s I got a PC AT and started to upgrade it. As time has gone by I have built many computers, and I will build a few more, but yes, they will take the fun away not too far in the future.

 

[nenforcer]

It won't die but you will see fewer and fewer people building 1200W EVGA SR-2 Classified systems than there already are.

I think power costs will rise to the point where its just not cost effective to build such a power sucking system. Rigs like that are like running a hair dryer for several hours at a time will make the meter outside spin rapidly.

I get laughed at when I tell people I am playing Counterstrike : Source on the system in my SIG which is more than adequate for a game which came out in 2004 or so.

BTW I also own a 750W Core 2 DUO E6600 system with 2 X 9800 GT in SLI and one dedicated GT 240 PhysX card, but it puts too much heat out in the summer here in Arizona so I rarely use it except at night to play games.

 

[dma0991]

I doubt it will ever die since those who use a smartphone, tablet or any portable handheld device are most likely content consumers only. We would still need the raw power of a desktop to be a content producer and definitely with videos becoming a more popular medium having more performance for faster video transcoding is definitely an advantage.

Gaming on a PC might eventually come to a standstill but who knows what improvements can be made to the gaming experience with all that performance. I would like to actually see the processing power of future desktops to be used as a form of virtual reality gaming for a more immersive experience. If handheld devices have the advantage of games being interactive to the player I don't see why PC games can't be the same with VR.

 

[TakeNoPrisoners]

It won't die but you will see fewer and fewer people building 1200W EVGA SR-2 Classified systems than there already are.

I think power costs will rise to the point where its just not cost effective to build such a power sucking system. Rigs like that are like running a hair dryer for several hours at a time will make the meter outside spin rapidly.

I get laughed at when I tell people I am playing Counterstrike : Source on the system in my SIG which is more than adequate for a game which came out in 2004 or so.

BTW I also own a 750W Core 2 DUO E6600 system with 2 X 9800 GT in SLI and one dedicated GT 240 PhysX card, but it puts too much heat out in the summer here in Arizona so I rarely use it except at night to play games.

If you upgraded that 9800GT system with modern components you could get more performance with less power and less heat.

 

[beginner99]

A modern laptop consumes less power, is portable, has decent quality screen

Most modern laptops are are heavy, come with a crappy 1366x768 16:9 screen and last for about 2 hrs. Eg the typical 500$ warehouse laptop.

- The 9-5 / 40 hour work-week is quickly disappearing. Many companies want their employees to work from home (after the regular 9-5) (i.e., they give you a laptop so you can't say that it's too heavy to bring home!), so on a corporate level there is a huge incentive to shift away from desktops (unless you need all the power you can get),

Not so sure this is true. Mobile devices pose a huge security risk and hence measures must be taken. And the more users logging in remotely, the higher the risk and the more expensive the solution must be.

- People want to have constant access to information 24/7, no matter where they are (a desktop can't provide that),

But a smartphone can which most people have nowadays. Me being one of the exceptions.

- A lot of main disadvantages of laptops are in the past (battery life is now 7-9 hours long, performance is plenty fast, laptops are thin and light, and screen resolution is much improved with 1080P options),

Show me one thin 1080p laptop, that is thin and light. Sony Vaio and then? Thats it. A Dell XPS 15 isn't light in my mindset. Screens are become worse and worse and the 16:9 AR is just a very big PITA because especially when browsing a lot of the already small screen goes unused.

I can see how for the majority of the new generation of consumers it simply doesn't make sense to buy a desktop anymore.

I disagree. It would make sense but most people don't care that cheapo laptops come with crappy screens. I see it all day at work. There are a lot that still have old 15" lcds with 1024x768 resolution. Other run that resolution on 19" 1280x1024 screens and it looks terrible.
They don't care and they don't know better.