Will singlecore ever die out?

[dagz85]

After the big success and the huge sales of dual core cpu's. Do you guys think AMD/INTEL will stop making dual core anytime soon? Also don't forget the future games that will support multitasking.

 

[Jaihahih]

nope, single cores won't die out ever. They might still be in laptops/pdas/etc

 

[dagz85]

I'm talking about desktop computer's.

 

[davegraham]

no, there will always be a place in the value line up for single core procs. 10 years from now, another issue.

dave

 

[Unkno]

single cores will die out in desktop computers if there are no new technology that is based only on single cores. As the prices drop, there would be no reason why manufacturers make single core when dual core is equally cheap (we're looking at the very least 5 years of time)

 

[naughty001]

well quadcore is due beginning of 2007 and 8 core is due mid 2008 acording to both intel and amd's long term roadmaps - so i would say that soon yo wont see singlecore besides for as semprons and celerons and it wont take 5 years to phase those out if 8 core is available in two and a half years from now

 

[Markbnj]

Of course they will die out, but you did say "ever." No architecture lasts forever.

 

[harobikes333]

we'll go over to nano technology for storage... and then who knows!:\

 

[Skott]

For mainstream computing they'll go away as dual core and quad cores take over I'm guessing. Might still be some specialized applications they'll be used for but their days are numbered.

 

[aka1nas]

The value line will probably continue to be single-core as then AMD and Intel can still sell chips that had a defective core.

 

[Zim]

Single cores will become obsolete in multi-use computers, and probably within the next 3-5 years. It's a market driven thing. Now that we are near the technological limits of silicon, the only way to keep the market moving is to give us more cores. If no other significant technology comes along, I believe we will have massively parallel multi-core chips (perhaps 10's or 100's of cores) within 20-30 years. A single core processor will look just pathetic in the face on that.

All that said, however, I believe that the biggest challenge will be writing software than can utilize multi-core cpus. Creating multi-threaded software increases the complexity of an application by an order of magnitude. XBOX360 and PS3 developers are going through this painful sea-change right now. I think we will need to build a whole new level of intelligence into software compilers, something we don't have right now and not something that can happen in a hurry.

 

[suszterpatt]

I seriously doubt washing machines would ever need multi-core.

 

[Shenkoa]

[/quote]Originally posted by: Markbnj
Of course they will die out, but you did say "ever." No architecture lasts forever.[/quote]


The P4's did :laugh:

 

[sandorski]

Yes, we are witnessing their death throes right now.

 

[phisrow]

As long as the cost of a chip is closely related to its die size, I have to imagine that there will be a place for single core. Unless competition goes sharply downhill, or the computational demands of even the most trivial activities soar, there will always be a niche for selling chips with defective cores disabled. That said, though, I doubt that we will see much in the way of designs optimized for single core use, in the future.

 

[sjwaste]

I hate to bring up this term in a thread full of nerds (me included, not being a jerk!), but a lot of it will have to do with marketing. People have been convinced they need to buy P4's for email and web surfing, but the jury's out on whether or not Intel can convince mom and pop that they need a dual core for the same task. I leave AMD out because they do little marketing to consumers.

Now, onto the "technical" portion. If Intel's dual core offering was the only thing out there, seeing how badly it performs and all, AMD may have never come to the table with their design in the consumer arena and we'd be looking at single core desktops for a long time to come (leaving dual cores in the server lines). The intel dual cores don't seem to be selling all that well even with the huge marketing budget. If AMD's design can find its way into more OEM's, or Intel copies/borrows from it, there's a good chance dual core will be the only thing out there in desktops in 3-5 years.

Not to mention, clock speeds have leveled off. Dual cores are probably cheaper to produce than the R&D in new materials or architecture to improve performance. That's probably where the marketing dollars will go, therefore.

Most people buying PC's arent us. They're folks who buy what other people tell them they need, because they know little about the technology. It's really more of whether or not they can be convinced.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Yes.

 

[harobikes333]

Originally posted by: sjwaste
I hate to bring up this term in a thread full of nerds (me included, not being a jerk!), but a lot of it will have to do with marketing. People have been convinced they need to buy P4's for email and web surfing, but the jury's out on whether or not Intel can convince mom and pop that they need a dual core for the same task. I leave AMD out because they do little marketing to consumers.

Now, onto the "technical" portion. If Intel's dual core offering was the only thing out there, seeing how badly it performs and all, AMD may have never come to the table with their design in the consumer arena and we'd be looking at single core desktops for a long time to come (leaving dual cores in the server lines). The intel dual cores don't seem to be selling all that well even with the huge marketing budget. If AMD's design can find its way into more OEM's, or Intel copies/borrows from it, there's a good chance dual core will be the only thing out there in desktops in 3-5 years.

Not to mention, clock speeds have leveled off. Dual cores are probably cheaper to produce than the R&D in new materials or architecture to improve performance. That's probably where the marketing dollars will go, therefore.

Most people buying PC's arent us. They're folks who buy what other people tell them they need, because they know little about the technology. It's really more of whether or not they can be convinced.

QFT

Great post!