Will there be a war in North Korea?

[UglyCasanova]

The drumbeats are sounding and it looks like Trump may have struck some kind of Deal with China, not sure what though. A CSG is in position and soon to be joined by Japanese vessels. China's military is supposed to be on alert and there's rumors of an upcoming NK nuke test.

So what do you foresee happening on the Korean Peninsula in the coming weeks?




Fixed the title to reflect the question you are asking the forum.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The drumbeats are sounding and it looks like Trump may have struck some kind of Deal with China, not sure what though. A CSG is in position and soon to be joined by Japanese vessels. China's military is supposed to be on alert and there's rumors of an upcoming NK nuke test.

So what do you foresee happening on the Korean Peninsula in the coming weeks?

A lot of extremely nervous people (2B or so) looking eastward and northward, some backdoor deals, and either an inordinately good deal to placate NK for a while longer, or something extremely interesting will happen.

Values of extremely interesting may include SK being turned to ash, NK being turned to ash, a shitton of NK missiles randomly being 'tested' into the ocean against their will, or other Fun.

 

[werepossum]

After all the North Korean missiles fired over Japan and South Korea, I'm to the point that I'd welcome Trump cutting a deal with China to take out the insane people running that failed nation. Maybe we kill a million or two, but doing so might well save double that from starving to death or being executed by their own government. Key would be if/when we can adequately safeguard Seoul and Japan from artillery/invasion and nuclear missiles respectively. I don't think we're there yet, but hopefully soon.

 

[Artorias]

After all the North Korean missiles fired over Japan and South Korea, I'm to the point that I'd welcome Trump cutting a deal with China to take out the insane people running that failed nation. Maybe we kill a million or two, but doing so might well save double that from starving to death or being executed by their own government. Key would be if/when we can adequately safeguard Seoul and Japan from artillery/invasion and nuclear missiles respectively. I don't think we're there yet, but hopefully soon.

Your going to need a blitzkrieg and a lot of co-ordination with the Chinese. Cutting off the head might not work in North Korea though and unfortunately its not going to be feasible to take out all NK artillery without causalities.

 

[Jhhnn]

Our ROK allies would likely have a shit fit if Trump is dumb enough to start anything.

They're the ones who would take the hit should hostilities ensue & they're not keen on the idea.

 

[Jaskalas]

After all the North Korean missiles fired over Japan and South Korea, I'm to the point that I'd welcome Trump cutting a deal with China to take out the insane people running that failed nation. Maybe we kill a million or two, but doing so might well save double that from starving to death or being executed by their own government. Key would be if/when we can adequately safeguard Seoul and Japan from artillery/invasion and nuclear missiles respectively. I don't think we're there yet, but hopefully soon.

World media would fixate entirely on the ones killed, not the ones saved.
Because the dead are countable. Potential losses.... and prevention of said losses... not so easy.

 

[Triloby]

Why would China be interested in toppling North Korea when there's a good chance that they'll have to take in millions of brainwashed NK refugees and give them food and shelter? I thought China only gives lip service to North Korea, because they have no interest in dealing with the massive fallout that would result in toppling Kim Jong Un. Same reason why South Korea has no interest in unifying with North Korea.

 

[JSt0rm]

After all the North Korean missiles fired over Japan and South Korea, I'm to the point that I'd welcome Trump cutting a deal with China to take out the insane people running that failed nation. Maybe we kill a million or two, but doing so might well save double that from starving to death or being executed by their own government. Key would be if/when we can adequately safeguard Seoul and Japan from artillery/invasion and nuclear missiles respectively. I don't think we're there yet, but hopefully soon.

Where did you come up with your million or 2 number?

I'm thinking more then this would die. The capital of Sk would get flattened.

 

[Svnla]

I hope there is no war in that area because I will be in Asia in a few months and I do not want to be stuck in Japan or Korea when bullets start flying.

I read another article recently and it stated that NK could be disintegrated into several factions and there could be civil war between those factions and it could be very nasty for NK, SK, and the neighbors.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Why would China be interested in toppling North Korea when there's a good chance that they'll have to take in millions of brainwashed NK refugees and give them food and shelter? I thought China only gives lip service to North Korea, because they have no interest in dealing with the massive fallout that would result in toppling Kim Jong Un. Same reason why South Korea has no interest in unifying with North Korea.

Agreement that if the threat is neutralized the US would withdraw troops from SK maybe.

 

[Triloby]

Agreement that if the threat is neutralized the US would withdraw troops from SK maybe.

The NK regime gets toppled and American troops stationed in SK get sent back home, but that doesn't explain how China and SK will deal with the influx of millions of NK refugees pouring into their borders. No plan to explain what happens to NK after such a move. Will China, SK, and the U.S. offer foreign aid to rebuild NK? Will the majority of North Koreans stay behind and try to fix their country? We're talking about a group of homogeneous people that have virtually little to no experience of other nations outside their own. Most of them will receive severe culture shock when they realize just how much more progressive and advanced their neighbors are, and just how stuck in the stone age North Korea is in.

 

[UglyCasanova]

The NK regime gets toppled and American troops stationed in SK get sent back home, but that doesn't explain how China and SK will deal with the influx of millions of NK refugees pouring into their borders. No plan to explain what happens to NK after such a move. Will China, SK, and the U.S. offer foreign aid to rebuild NK? Will the majority of North Koreans stay behind and try to fix their country? We're talking about a group of homogeneous people that have virtually little to no experience of other nations outside their own. Most of them will receive severe culture shock when they realize just how much more progressive and advanced their neighbors are, and just how stuck in the stone age North Korea is in.

Something similar to the German reunification. It won't be easy, no one said it would be.

 

[JSt0rm]

The NK regime gets toppled and American troops stationed in SK get sent back home, but that doesn't explain how China and SK will deal with the influx of millions of NK refugees pouring into their borders. No plan to explain what happens to NK after such a move. Will China, SK, and the U.S. offer foreign aid to rebuild NK? Will the majority of North Koreans stay behind and try to fix their country? We're talking about a group of homogeneous people that have virtually little to no experience of other nations outside their own. Most of them will receive severe culture shock when they realize just how much more progressive and advanced their neighbors are, and just how stuck in the stone age North Korea is in.

So what. They are already a docile population ready to take orders. Rebuilding them isn't something we haven't done in the past.

 

[Sonikku]

 

[evident]

After all the North Korean missiles fired over Japan and South Korea, I'm to the point that I'd welcome Trump cutting a deal with China to take out the insane people running that failed nation. Maybe we kill a million or two, but doing so might well save double that from starving to death or being executed by their own government. Key would be if/when we can adequately safeguard Seoul and Japan from artillery/invasion and nuclear missiles respectively. I don't think we're there yet, but hopefully soon.

now imagine if you're living in seoul.

 

[JSt0rm]

now imagine if you're living in seoul.

He doesn't care. They all go to heaven or hell. It's a simple world!

 

[Vic]

So that guy who won the White House by telling people that American needed to invest in itself instead of expensive foreign wars.. is trying to start an expensive foreign war.

*Shocker*

 

[brycejones]

There will be no war, keep your panties on.

 

[rommelrommel]

Where did you come up with your million or 2 number?

I'm thinking more then this would die. The capital of Sk would get flattened.

This is not true, unless you think NK can deliver a nuclear weapon to Seoul.

 

[JSt0rm]

This is not true, unless you think NK can deliver a nuclear weapon to Seoul.

do you know how much artillery is pointed at seoul?

 

[JSt0rm]

500k rounds of artillery fire within the first hour of conflict.

 

[mikeymikec]

There will be no war, keep your panties on.

I think you underestimate how much derp this administration has stockpiled. Maybe the UN should be called in to inspect it?

 

[lehtv]

Where did you come up with your million or 2 number?

I'm thinking more then this would die. The capital of Sk would get flattened.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-no-one-in-korea-wants-war-2013-4?r=US&IR=T&IR=T

Even without nuclear weapons, North Korea has an ace in the hole. Most experts believe its claims to have enough conventional firepower from its artillery units to devastate the greater Seoul area, South Korea's bustling capital of 24 million. Such an attack would cause severe casualties — often estimated in the hundreds of thousands — in a very short period of time.

I don't know their source for this "often estimated" claim, but it calls into question the validity of your "more than 2 million" claim

 

[cytg111]

Yes. Everything lines up with this, especially the past ~24 hours.

 

[cytg111]

500k rounds of artillery fire within the first hour of conflict.

You dont think the joint chiefs has been edging to pull out the NK disintegration strategy file since day one of Trump? I am thinking those 500k is the first to go.