Will there be a war in North Korea?

[desura]

I read somewhere that the Soviet Union collapsed because the elite stopped believing in its cause and purpose.

So the key to North Korea would be to "corrupt" their elite, preferably through elite education in European boarding schools. I know of a few elite NK leadership offspring who went to Swiss boarding schools, but they do seem to still parrot the party line.

I don't think there will be war in North Korea. More likely is the Chinese doing something stupid in the South China Sea which escalates into a clash with the US navy.

 

[woolfe9998]

I read somewhere that the Soviet Union collapsed because the elite stopped believing in its cause and purpose.

So the key to North Korea would be to "corrupt" their elite, preferably through elite education in European boarding schools. I know of a few elite NK leadership offspring who went to Swiss boarding schools, but they do seem to still parrot the party line.

I don't think there will be war in North Korea. More likely is the Chinese doing something stupid in the South China Sea which escalates into a clash with the US navy.

According to a couple of NK defectors, KJU has already lost the support of most of the elites there. They evidently think he is deranged. However, this very derangement makes them afraid to take any action against him. Which is why they parrot the party line.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

The Soviet government collapsed because the Russian mafia became the government and infrastructure doesn't have a high rate of return. North Korea is rapidly reaching the point where they HAVE to have a war to survive. Dear leader will implode without a war to get some cash moving.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Does Kim Jung Un have kids?

 

[zinfamous]

Does Kim Jung Un have kids?

he just "married" some hotty about a year or so ago, but no one knows. ....I would guess that he still has no kids, though, because I wouldn't be surprised if his vas defrens are pinched off and non-functioning because of all the twinkies.

...and for various other health reasons that he might well be sterile.

 

[Svnla]

Does Kim Jung Un have kids?

Look at this old picture, Kim Jong iL with his father and mother in 1945. Jung Un's father and grandparents.

 

[alien42]

CNN has a occasional live feed with a reporter in Pyongyang at the parade going on right now. i gotta say, if i still had hair on the top of my head, i would totally rock Kim Jong Un's hair style, it's dapper as fuck.

 

[baydude]

Live!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q901s3wcNSU

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

NK fail. Missile test a dud.

So what next?

 

[UglyCasanova]

NK fail. Missile test a dud.

So what next?

Death by firing squad (or an anti aircraft gun) I'd imagine for somebody.

 

[FIVR]

Well I'm looking at CNN right now and they are showing that parade. They even pulled out what appears to be a korean journalist to host the presentation. Those missiles in the parade look like they are quite capable. I wonder how far their submarines are capable of going? What are the chances he snuck a sub right up to miami beach and plants a fat one on mar a largo, instantly turning from world most infamous dictator to world savior?

 

[desura]

You know the saying, you come at the king, you best not miss.

Fuck, in light of this failed test, why not just knock them over?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Well I'm looking at CNN right now and they are showing that parade. They even pulled out what appears to be a korean journalist to host the presentation. Those missiles in the parade look like they are quite capable. I wonder how far their submarines are capable of going? What are the chances he snuck a sub right up to miami beach and plants a fat one on mar a largo, instantly turning from world most infamous dictator to world savior? He wouldn't even need to use a nuclear weapon really. just to be safe tho

That would be the alternate reality NK. NK has no such capability, not even close. The typical sub is 1950's vintage. The is construction of a pretty crappy more modern sub with an estimated range of 1500 miles.

The missiles look great as a display piece. In reality they tend to blow up. Eventually they'll get them right and a bomb that doesn't have to be delivered by a semi. In 5 to 10 years NK will be a real threat from a nuclear perspective. Hopefully by then Kim will be sorted out.

 

[FIVR]

That would be the alternate reality NK. NK has no such capability, not even close. The typical sub is 1950's vintage. The is construction of a pretty crappy more modern sub with an estimated range of 1500 miles.

The missiles look great as a display piece. In reality they tend to blow up. Eventually they'll get them right and a bomb that doesn't have to be delivered by a semi. In 5 to 10 years NK will be a real threat from a nuclear perspective. Hopefully by then Kim will be sorted out.

The germans in 1917 could build them to go 24,000km aka much of the way around the earth, and plenty far enough to roll up and nuke some golf course Trump happens to frequent on the west coast. Perhaps enough to even get to florida un-refueled. If they have a tanker to refuel it... well... game over. I'm sure you aren't suggesting modern 2017 DPRK tech is somehow inferior to german tech from literally a century ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Type_UE_II_submarine

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The germans in 1917 could build them to go 24,000km aka much of the way around the earth, and plenty far enough to roll up and nuke some golf course Trump happens to frequent on the west coast. Perhaps enough to even get to florida un-refueled. If they have a tanker to refuel it... well... game over. I'm sure you aren't suggesting modern 2017 DPRK tech is somehow inferior to german tech from literally a century ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Type_UE_II_submarine

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_North_Korean_ships

There's the list of subs. Find the ones which can launch and ICBM and the ranges. The longest range is a single rustbucket a 1940's era Whiskey class. Neither it nor U-Boats can launch a nuke missile.

 

[Linux23]

Imho I think our strategy should be to send two undercover journalists over there to interview fatoboy.

During the interview process a hidden explosion on his lapel mic would detonate on the fatoboy severing his artery.

Fatoboy dead. Game over. Pay me.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

Well I'm looking at CNN right now and they are showing that parade. They even pulled out what appears to be a korean journalist to host the presentation. Those missiles in the parade look like they are quite capable. I wonder how far their submarines are capable of going? What are the chances he snuck a sub right up to miami beach and plants a fat one on mar a largo, instantly turning from world most infamous dictator to world savior?

The chances are exactly zero. You seem to have an inflated view of dear leaders military capabilities.

 

[eldorado99]

You guys sure like to speculate a lot and pretend it's fact.

 

[zinfamous]

Well I'm looking at CNN right now and they are showing that parade. They even pulled out what appears to be a korean journalist to host the presentation. Those missiles in the parade look like they are quite capable. I wonder how far their submarines are capable of going? What are the chances he snuck a sub right up to miami beach and plants a fat one on mar a largo, instantly turning from world most infamous dictator to world savior?

Those missiles are like Cuba's 1954 Cadillacs. Look pristine and run as well as they day they were made...because that's all they have. Those missiles are just as old, only difference is, because they are missiles, they don't run so well. They do look shiny, though.

 

[alcoholbob]

I read somewhere that the Soviet Union collapsed because the elite stopped believing in its cause and purpose.

So the key to North Korea would be to "corrupt" their elite, preferably through elite education in European boarding schools. I know of a few elite NK leadership offspring who went to Swiss boarding schools, but they do seem to still parrot the party line.

I don't think there will be war in North Korea. More likely is the Chinese doing something stupid in the South China Sea which escalates into a clash with the US navy.

Well the Soviet-Afghan war basically continued until the Revolutions of 1989, and more Soviets died in that war than all the American casualties combined since Vietnam, and that war bled the Soviet Union to the bone economically. Keeping a multi-national, multi-ethnic state together like the Soviet Union is simply not possible without a powerful state, which requires a measure of economic power, and wars destroy the economies of all empires.

 

[FIVR]

Those missiles are like Cuba's 1954 Cadillacs. Look pristine and run as well as they day they were made...because that's all they have. Those missiles are just as old, only difference is, because they are missiles, they don't run so well. They do look shiny, though.

You are saying that cuban missiles are unreliable, like old cars? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you start 20 1954 Cadillacs... more than likely you might get one to start and drive a mile or two. Maybe even a few miles.

The missile equivalent to that one caddilac is a successful nuclear strike using an untested missile. DPRK tech is built of of proven Chinese designs (like proven 1954 cadillac designs). There is no reason their ablative heat shield or warhead design shouldn't be successful.


I suspect this test was flubbed on purpose, to avoid the world scrutiny and to avoid conflict. No evidence for it, but IIRC the Americans almost always says their tests failed. Can't really trust any media on them. DPRK doesn't seek to end the world, just their own regime's security. and will avoid Trump if possible.

 

[Skyclad1uhm1]

If you want to attack N-Korea you have to make sure the first hit takes out all their ranged weapons. And even then, as Seoul is so close to the border, a lot of people may die. Since it's a dictatorship and a lot of people have family in the South that may be 'annoyed' if their families get nuked it's a tiny bit of a delicate situation. Organizing a revolution could be an option, but you'd have to get a lot of people on the inside for it and anything leaking out would cause a lot of people to get butchered. So, what other options are there? Sending in a special ops team to take him out? A bunch of US marines would stand out, so you'd have to use South-Korean ones. And they'd have to infiltrate in a carefully guarded environment without their covers being blown (while no one knows them so they'll stand out immediately). Anything goes wrong and Seoul gets it.

Even if North-Korea cannot reach the US with nukes they still might be able to reach Japan, and if they have any decent missiles or even long ranged guns they will for sure be able to hit South Korea with them. Do you think the US will be viewed positively worldwide if it 'saves' South Korea by letting the north nuke it?

Kim Jong-Un does not want to lose power and certainly doesn't want to die. So he's very unlikely to strike first. But when attacked he's still likely to go all-out knowing that he's not going to win anyway.

 

[Meghan54]

You are saying that cuban missiles are unreliable, like old cars? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you start 20 1954 Cadillacs... more than likely you might get one to start and drive a mile or two. Maybe even a few miles.

Since you've not been corrected, here goes:

Sheesh....that's not what he was saying. When zin said, "Those missiles are like Cuba's 1954 Cadillacs. Look pristine and run as well as they day they were made...because that's all they have," he was implying a few things.

First, if you have paid one lick of attention to the history of Cuba and the U.S., you'd know that Cuba was a U.S. playground, if you will, until the revolution. As such, Cuba was chock-a-block full of American cars. The importation of such cars and their spare parts completely stopped with the Cuban Revolution. Yet, decades after that point in time, Cuba still has a vast array of 1950's vintage cars that run....reliably. It's almost as if the cars are caught in some type of time bubble they've lived so long.

So that was the 1954 Cuban Cadillac reference he made.

Then, using the analogy described above of something that looks and works today exactly as it was produced 50 years ago, zin then sought to use the aforementioned Cuban car analogy to describe the NK missles....zin never made a reference to nor sought to make a reference to Cuban missiles, wherever that came from.

I think I'm close........

 

[Bubblehappy]

My guess would be at some point after their next nuclear test, Trump will lob a bunch of cruise missiles to destroy their reactor. NK retaliates by lobbing shells into SK. Then the whole thing starts.

I wish we'd just stay out of it. Even if/when they create a nuclear weapon capable of reaching anywhere, I don't even think their leader would be stupid enough to actually use it.

 

[FIVR]

Jong Un would probably nuke Seoul if they attempted a decapitation strike. Millions dead. No telling what he'd do if they just struck some reactor with cruise missiles. Artillery strikes on seoul? VX Gas strikes? Full nuclear strike? He would probably have to at least escalate. If I were his advisor, I'd say go VX on Seoul if the west tries anything. Nuke if they come after your high command. That's a clear line of escalation any military could understand. They go kenetic in any way, and you have a clear escalation level with VX. Then a further one with SRBMs and nukes. Trump is a wannabe strongman and they only know their place by use and show of force.