Wisconsin Senate Passes Union Reform Legislation

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mrjminer

Platinum Member
Dec 2, 2005
2,739
16
76
Did you read my earlier posts? They had nothing to do with the protests, and so no... my logic has very little to do with what you described. When I was referring to the 'will of the people' I was referring to scientific polling of Wisconsin opinion.

Public polling shows that this move is opposed in Wisconsin by double digit margins: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ot_for_weakening_collective_bargaining_rights

And that's Rasmussen, a pollster with the reputation for having a right leaning bias. Now do you agree with me?

The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports

The overall sample for the survey included 30% of union households. That includes 33% with a private sector union member and 60% with a public sector union member.

Why would I agree with useless polls (don't get the wrong impression, not only is your poll useless, but all others are, as well. Scientific polling is in no way scientific -- the only thing it is accurate for is the people who were polled.)? "The people" voted their representatives into office; they have spoken.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
So whats the problem then? The Republicans passed a bill they were elected to pass. If the public disagrees with that, they can vote them out next election. Democracy at work.

Hmm, good point. Let me ask my good friend Fear No Evil what he thinks about that idea:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=29322007&postcount=58

I never claimed I was - But Jhhnn posted that the Republicans were thwarting the will of the HOR and the Chief Executive. Its not the job of those people to impose THEIR WILL on the people.. its their job to represent the will of the people.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Considering how badly this is all polling for the GOP, that appears unlikely. Recall efforts take time to implement, and nobody has good polling on the individual districts. That makes two very big unknowns to consider, but if the districts behave as Wisconsin is polling as a whole the Republicans are facing a slaughter.

I guess we'll just have to wait to see how things turn out next year. A lot can change in a year.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
Why would I agree with useless polls (don't get the wrong impression, not only is your poll useless, but all others are, as well. Scientific polling is in no way scientific -- the only thing it is accurate for is the people who were polled.)? "The people" voted their representatives into office; they have spoken.

Scientific polling is absolutely scientific, and if you believe it is only accurate for the people who are polled, you don't understand math. (I'm being completely serious)

The result is statistically significant at the 95% level, and considering the wide margin is probably statistically significant at the 99% level. Also, the percentage of union households in the poll is about 4% higher than union turnout in 2010, but roughly in line with average union turnout over the last few election cycles. It is certainly nothing to cause a result such as this.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
349
126
Why would I agree with useless polls (don't get the wrong impression, not only is your poll useless, but all others are, as well. Scientific polling is in no way scientific -- the only thing it is accurate for is the people who were polled.)? "The people" voted their representatives into office; they have spoken.

1. First, you are ignorant about how polls work. There are people who say things like you do about polls, who are very much like the flat-Earth or birther people.

2. The politicians *DID NOT RUN* saying they would try to remove collective bargaining from unions. That was a STEALTH AGENDA HIDDEN FROM THE VOTERS.

The voters DO NOT approve of it and were lied to by omission by the politicians.
 

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,501
4,596
136
Think paying them less will make it better?

The problem with schools isn't teachers getting paid too much, it's the bullshit that gets pushed through that keeps teachers from being effective...(no child left behind, no "meaningful" punishment, no parental involvement, on, on, on...)

sounds like all dem bleeding programs to me.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,669
7,166
136
Why would I agree with useless polls (don't get the wrong impression, not only is your poll useless, but all others are, as well. Scientific polling is in no way scientific -- the only thing it is accurate for is the people who were polled.)? "The people" voted their representatives into office; they have spoken.[/QUOTE]

So then, if the repubs get voted out of office/recalled because of the kind of manuevering they've used to get rid of the way the public unions bargain with the state, you'd be all for that too? Just checking....
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
1. First, you are ignorant about how polls work. There are people who say things like you do about polls, who are very much like the flat-Earth or birther people.

2. The politicians *DID NOT RUN* saying they would try to remove collective bargaining from unions. That was a STEALTH AGENDA HIDDEN FROM THE VOTERS.

The voters DO NOT approve of it and were lied to by omission by the politicians.

What about people like me who love to screw up the pollsters and tell them what they want to hear?

Also would you like a little cheese to go with that whine? Maybe bluhoo cheese?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
What about people like me who love to screw up the pollsters and tell them what they want to hear?

Also would you like a little cheese to go with that whine? Maybe bluhoo cheese?

People like you are insignificant as compared to the polling sample, it's one of the reasons you have a margin of error.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
This is a victory for hardworking taxpayers in the state of Wisconsin.

Last time I checked, busting unions didn't burn Indiana to the ground.

True. Indiana has been face down in the Republican ooze longer than that...
 

mrjminer

Platinum Member
Dec 2, 2005
2,739
16
76
1. First, you are ignorant about how polls work. There are people who say things like you do about polls, who are very much like the flat-Earth or birther people.

2. The politicians *DID NOT RUN* saying they would try to remove collective bargaining from unions. That was a STEALTH AGENDA HIDDEN FROM THE VOTERS.

The voters DO NOT approve of it and were lied to by omission by the politicians.

Sorry, I don't consider anything with an "estimated" "margin of error" +/- 4 accurate enough. Just because there's a process that's consistently followed makes it "scientific," but that doesn't make it accurate.

As far as "STEALTH AGENDA HIDDEN FROM THE VOTERS," I'd say relying on others' not knowing all of the information, which is what unions do, is also a pretty stealthy way of getting your choice viewed as the popular one. The simple fact of the matter is the people voted them into office, and they cast their votes.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
The unions did a good job making a big spectacle and selling the absurd notion that a curb on union waste is an attack on everyone. Hopefully over the next year things will die down and people will understand how stupid that idea is and positions will change.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
Sorry, I don't consider anything with an "estimated" "margin of error" +/- 4 accurate enough. Just because there's a process that's consistently followed makes it "scientific," but that doesn't make it accurate.

Allow me to introduce you to the central limit theorem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

Like I said, if you don't consider this valid, you don't agree with math. (probably shouldn't be using your devil powered computer then either, it uses a lot of math)

+/- 4% is certainly accurate enough when you are dealing with double digit margins, that's where the phrase 'statistically significant' comes from. There is a 95% chance that the true breakdown of opinion for that population is within +/- 4 points of what they polled. Since that implies a standard deviation of 2 points, there is a 98% chance that it is within +/- 6 points.
 

boomerang

Lifer
Jun 19, 2000
18,890
642
126
I see this as a small first step back to the values the country was founded upon. One of the next steps absolutely needs to be a total revamp of what is taught in our schools from top to bottom. No more teaching the progressive version of history. No more teaching our children that the United States is bad. No more teaching them that the country has an obligation to support them regardless of whether they choose to contribute or not. No more teaching them that the deck is stacked against them by evil rich people who are greedy and won't share. To touch on just a few points.

The way our children are taught is the root of our problems. We've got too many generations in the country brainwashed in this manner. Ignore this and we'll descend further into a nation with a form of government that people have fled for hundreds of years.

The world of the progressive is getting rocked. It's long overdue. We'd better hope we succeed.

Michael Moore yesterday evening called for the imprisonment of the wealthiest 400 in America. Give some thought to that. He's got a number of followers and there are a lot of weak minds that will see logic in what he says. There will always be a wealthiest 400. The top 400 will ratchet down through society until eventually everyone is equally miserable. There's a word for that type of society, that form of government. Our children have been taught that it's preferable to what we have now.
 

mrjminer

Platinum Member
Dec 2, 2005
2,739
16
76
Allow me to introduce you to the central limit theorem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

Like I said, if you don't consider this valid, you don't agree with math. (probably shouldn't be using your devil powered computer then either, it uses a lot of math)

+/- 4% is certainly accurate enough when you are dealing with double digit margins, that's where the phrase 'statistically significant' comes from. There is a 95% chance that the true breakdown of opinion for that population is within +/- 4 points of what they polled. Since that implies a standard deviation of 2 points, there is a 98% chance that it is within +/- 6 points.

Sorry, but there is still no guarantee. In order to believe these polls are accurate, true representations of the results, you also have to believe that people are not individuals. Simply the fact that they tend to be accurate is of no consequence, because there is no guarantee they will be for any given poll. For all you know, the people they polled who voted against, or, for that matter, for, reducing union benefits/concessions/members could be the only people who will -- and every single other person that was not part of this 800 could all vote one way or the other. However, I guess I wouldn't expect any less from someone trying to argue that "the people" voted these people into office, but that "the people" didn't have a choice in the matter.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Allow me to introduce you to the central limit theorem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

Like I said, if you don't consider this valid, you don't agree with math. (probably shouldn't be using your devil powered computer then either, it uses a lot of math)

+/- 4% is certainly accurate enough when you are dealing with double digit margins, that's where the phrase 'statistically significant' comes from. There is a 95% chance that the true breakdown of opinion for that population is within +/- 4 points of what they polled. Since that implies a standard deviation of 2 points, there is a 98% chance that it is within +/- 6 points.

You seem to forget the underlying problems with a lot of polling. It's all predicated on the idea that you can get a really representative random sample of the population to be studied. That's the trick. I tend to believe the major polling companies because they have a track record of being at least somewhat competent, so I don't dispute the validity of this polling data.

I do have an issue with polling likely voters versus everyone in general. It might be more valid in terms of using it to predict elections and such, it doesn't say anything about the sentiment of the population as a whole. Likely voters might be 100% for something, but if they only comprise 40% of the total population, there's the possibility that the majority of people in general are against something.

I don't think that's the case in WI though, the unions have done a good job selling their absurd notions and the right to fleece people. Now it's up to the GOP to bring logic back into the picture.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
Sorry, but there is still no guarantee. In order to believe these polls are accurate, true representations of the results, you also have to believe that people are not individuals. Simply the fact that they tend to be accurate is of no consequence, because there is no guarantee they will be for any given poll. For all you know, the people they polled who voted against, or, for that matter, for, reducing union benefits/concessions/members could be the only people who will -- and every single other person that was not part of this 800 could all vote one way or the other. However, I guess I wouldn't expect any less from someone trying to argue that "the people" voted these people into office, but that "the people" didn't have a choice in the matter.

You must not be reading my posts, you didn't read up on the central limit theorem (as your complaints are directly addressed by it), and you appear to have no knowledge of statistics. Do you know what it means when the poll says +/- 4% at the 95% confidence level? Do you know what confidence level a 13 point gap corresponds to?

You absolutely don't need to believe that people aren't individuals to believe that polls are accurate, true representations of public opinion. Let me give you some tips for discrediting polls, you're going to want to look at the sample and declare it biased, or you're going to want to attack question ordering, things like that. Attacking the mathematical basis for scientific polling is a bad idea, because it is mathematically proven. ie: it's not open for debate.

You're going to strike out when attacking this poll in those other ways too, but it might be helpful in the future if you see other inconvenient truths that you're trying to ignore.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,669
7,166
136
Sorry, I don't consider anything with an "estimated" "margin of error" +/- 4 accurate enough. Just because there's a process that's consistently followed makes it "scientific," but that doesn't make it accurate.

As far as "STEALTH AGENDA HIDDEN FROM THE VOTERS," I'd say relying on others' not knowing all of the information, which is what unions do, is also a pretty stealthy way of getting your choice viewed as the popular one. The simple fact of the matter is the people voted them into office, and they cast their votes.


Sorry, logic fail IRT stealth agenda.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
If the voters dont like this move. They can not re-elect walker in 4 years. I suspect in 4 years nobody will care. Or the voters may appreciate the limiting of growth in benefits and salary of teachers. Time will tell.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,726
49,320
136
You seem to forget the underlying problems with a lot of polling. It's all predicated on the idea that you can get a really representative random sample of the population to be studied. That's the trick. I tend to believe the major polling companies because they have a track record of being at least somewhat competent, so I don't dispute the validity of this polling data.

I do have an issue with polling likely voters versus everyone in general. It might be more valid in terms of using it to predict elections and such, it doesn't say anything about the sentiment of the population as a whole. Likely voters might be 100% for something, but if they only comprise 40% of the total population, there's the possibility that the majority of people in general are against something.

I don't think that's the case in WI though, the unions have done a good job selling their absurd notions and the right to fleece people. Now it's up to the GOP to bring logic back into the picture.

I'm not forgetting anything, I work with statistics every day. Likely voter models absolutely skew results to a certain segment of the population, I mean that's the whole point. When you poll likely voters you do that because it's what the politicians care about, and it's most likely to truly represent election day. Notably, every single major pollster predicted the 2008 election within their margin of error.

As for this poll, Rasmussen's likely voter model is heavily influenced by the most recent election, one that was quite favorable to Republicans. If there's a bias here, it's almost certainly underestimating union support.
 

wirednuts

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2007
7,121
4
0
No, they said all along that it wasn't just about current concessions and that for the health of the future of the state, the union collective bargaining powers had to be reigned in. That's what they're doing, helping resolve budget problems.



Typical idiocy. I am not in the top 5% holders of wealth, nor am I in a union. I want less of my money wasted by government. Fixing the union problems is a step in that direction. Of course I support it. This idiotic notion that reigning in union collective bargaining power is somehow an attack on everyone in the country even though 90% of them are not in a union anyway is absurd.

THE STATE IS NOT BROKE. the state budget committee reported a surplus until walker cut taxes for corporations. and even those tax cuts wouldnt put the state into bad trouble. wisconsin is not illinois! holy christ it is unbelieveable how politicians can just spread blatent lies and there are people who sit there and go "oh ok... duuuhhhh ok".

and you are OK with 400 people in this country holding more wealth then 155 MILLION households COMBINED? seriously? its like telling people "there are no other lifeforms in the universe because we would have found some by now". when in reality its not even possible for you to wrap your brain around the number of planets and stars that are actually out there, and how long it would take to get places even at the speed of light.

keep supporting your drone party for the sake of a percentage of one percent of people. live an unnecessary hard life because you want to.... wow....
 
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