World may not be warming, say scientists

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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
I don't know how to get through to you people. Yes, everybody knows that climate changes naturally. That doesn't mean we can't cause climate change by drastically altering the atmosphere's composition.



I don't see a cooling between 1940 and 1970. I see a lot of variation and overall steady trend, followed by a resumption of warming. Is the spike around 1941 confusing you? Overall it's clearly a warming trend. The cause of the steadiness for that time period is probably due to particulates reflecting radiation back into space (aka global dimming). Pollution regs since then have reduced particulates drastically, removing that buffer.

Note how steady and severe the warming is between 1965 and 2008.

How nice of you to present a 120 year period beginning from a cool period. Superior (longer) time lines have already been laid out in this topic. So why did you use such a misleading image, so you could present propaganda as science?
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,444
1
0
About realclimate.org here's a post by Pielke Jr. "from mistake to a lie", read the article and the comments. realclimate is brought to you by the same people that brought you the hockey stick and the climategate e-mails.

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/from-mistake-to-lie.html

from an article in real clear politics about climategate from an actual email

"This scandal goes beyond scientific journals and into other media used to promote the global warming dogma. For example, RealClimate.org has been billed as an objective website at which global warming activists and skeptics can engage in an impartial debate. But in the CRU e-mails, the global warming establishment boasts that RealClimate is in their pocket.

I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through.... We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to include.

[T]hink of RC as a resource that is at your disposal.... We'll use our best discretion to make sure the skeptics don't get to use the RC comments as a megaphone."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/24/the_fix_is_in_99280.html
 
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Munky

Diamond Member
Feb 5, 2005
9,372
0
76
realclimate.org is run by Gavin Schmidt, one of the pro-warming scientists involved in the CRU email scandal.... I thought that was public knowledge, but apparently not.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
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What are you saying is "maybe yes, maybe no"?
GCR is potentially a huge independent variable that's totally ignored by the IPCC...research is currently underway at CERN and we should have some preliminary results by the end of the year. Calibration data for the CLOUD chamber shows that galactic cosmic ray flux causes significant cloud formation. FYI, GRC theory also explains why the other planets in our solar system are also heating up.

Jason Kirkby is heading up the CLOUD experiment at CERN. He's one of the world's top physicists (Google him if you don't believe me). Here's a presentation he did last year that will give you a decent understanding of current IPCC theory, the CLOUD experiment, and the potential impact of GCRs on our climate. http://howcanpeoplebesostupid.com/?p=1647

Enjoy.
 

Throckmorton

Lifer
Aug 23, 2007
16,830
3
0
Interesting way to call a cooling trend of several decades a "spike"... like it doesn't matter and we should ignore it? By that definition, on the scale of 1000000 years, a 100 year warming trend is nothing but a blip.

But more importantly, your graph only presents data dating back to 1880... I cannot emphasize enough how misleading it is to draw some profound conclusion from looking a small clip of the entire history of the planet. You see that neat little horizontal line at y=0? Am I to believe that is the official "normal" temperature, and any deviation from that measure must be minimized? Who decided that line should be the normal, when looking back thousands of years, it's clear there were much wider fluctuations in temperature? Who decided that the "normal" should not reflect the temperatures dating back much further than 1880?

Wow. Way to completely miss the point.

I posted this in response to the post about the alleged cooling between 1940 and 1970, which this graph clearly shows doesn't exist. It's not a cooling trend if there was a short spike followed by a return to steady temperatures (due to particulate pollution). That's the same BS that Rush Limbaugh and his buddies have been trying to pass off as "5 years of cooling". It's a shame that it works on people with no statistics knowledge.

The fact that we've warmed this much in only 100 years is exactly the problem, not some mitigating factor. Warming and cooling normally occurs at a much slower RATE, which the Vostok data shows. RATE. RATE. RATE. Get it?



Here is what is happening here. You guys say "but we're really cooling" so I post a graph that shows that statement is untrue, then your response is "but you only showed 120 years". How the hell does that make sense? Stop playing games.
 
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Throckmorton

Lifer
Aug 23, 2007
16,830
3
0
GCR is potentially a huge independent variable that's totally ignored by the IPCC...research is currently underway at CERN and we should have some preliminary results by the end of the year. Calibration data for the CLOUD chamber shows that galactic cosmic ray flux causes significant cloud formation. FYI, GRC theory also explains why the other planets in our solar system are also heating up.

Jason Kirkby is heading up the CLOUD experiment at CERN. He's one of the world's top physicists (Google him if you don't believe me). Here's a presentation he did last year that will give you a decent understanding of current IPCC theory, the CLOUD experiment, and the potential impact of GCRs on our climate. http://howcanpeoplebesostupid.com/?p=1647

Enjoy.


Variations in cosmic rays from the sun, and any cloud cover changes they create follow an 11 year cycle. There's no correlation between the warming we've observed and cosmic rays. Cosmic ray clouds actually explain cooling periods of a few years that deniers use as "proof" that warming isn't real.

Here's a question for you to ask yourself. Why is it that you refuse to accept correlation between greenhouse gases (which by definition retain heat) and warming as proof that those gases are the cause.... But instead argue that warming hasn't been caused by greenhouse gases, but by cosmic rays following an 11 year cycle with no correlation? Could it be that you are grasping at straws to justify your bias?
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136

For that graph to mean anything, you need to provide a link to a peer-reviewed journal article, explaining how they calculate their uncertainty. An uncertainty band of +/- 0.1°C is pure make believe.

In the heat transfer research lab I did my graduate work in, we had in situ calibrated thermocouples, operating over a very small temperature range. Even with all of this we had uncertainties in the +/- 0.21°C range. After spatial averaging, the uncertainty jumped up to > +/- 1°C during most tests. But you are trying to tell me that you can measure the mean temperature of the entire earth with a +/- 0.1°C uncertainty band? The truth is if you slapped a +/- 1°C band on that data, you'd realize there was no statistically significant difference between each data point.

I would be willing to bet that if a true uncertainty analysis was done on the planet's mean temperature, the uncertainty would be in the >2°C range. Meaning all your recent data points are statistically the same.

Unfortunately, most people, including scientist and engineers, do not understand measurement uncertainty and its impact on their data and subsequent calculations.
 

Throckmorton

Lifer
Aug 23, 2007
16,830
3
0
For that graph to mean anything, you need to provide a link to a peer-reviewed journal article, explaining how they calculate their uncertainty. An uncertainty band of +/- 0.1°C is pure make believe.

In the heat transfer research lab I did my graduate work in, we had in situ calibrated thermocouples, operating over a very small temperature range. Even with all of this we had uncertainties in the +/- 0.21°C range. After spatial averaging, the uncertainty jumped up to > +/- 1°C during most tests. But you are trying to tell me that you can measure the mean temperature of the entire earth with a +/- 0.1°C uncertainty band? The truth is if you slapped a +/- 1°C band on that data, you'd realize there was no statistically significant difference between each data point.

I would be willing to bet that if a true uncertainty analysis was done on the planet's mean temperature, the uncertainty would be in the >2°C range. Meaning all your recent data points are statistically the same.

Unfortunately, most people, including scientist and engineers, do not understand measurement uncertainty and its impact on their data and subsequent calculations.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html

Look here for a comparison between surface data and satellite readings.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
 
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bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
Where do insects get their carbon? By eating plants animals. Where do plants get their carbon? From the atmosphere. Respiration is carbon neutral.

That doesn't even make sense how is respiration carbon neutral? Lets say you have a shitload of termites right? Termites eat trees, so now you have these shit load of termites that need fed. they're breathing a lot, they destroy all the trees get fat and breath a shit load trying to feed and expand their hive or whatever termites have. They've now destroyed the thing that would make their respiration neutral... it's not neutral. Something has to take the CO2 out of the air, if it's not there due to destruction by insects then guess what that CO2 stays in the air.

Respiration isn't neutral.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
389
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Variations in cosmic rays from the sun, and any cloud cover changes they create follow an 11 year cycle. There's no correlation between the warming we've observed and cosmic rays. Cosmic ray clouds actually explain cooling periods of a few years that deniers use as "proof" that warming isn't real.

Wow...you have absolutely no clue as to what you're talking about. Damn...and I thought you had promise.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,425
8,388
126
That doesn't even make sense how is respiration carbon neutral? Lets say you have a shitload of termites right? Termites eat trees, so now you have these shit load of termites that need fed. they're breathing a lot, they destroy all the trees get fat and breath a shit load trying to feed and expand their hive or whatever termites have. They've now destroyed the thing that would make their respiration neutral... it's not neutral. Something has to take the CO2 out of the air, if it's not there due to destruction by insects then guess what that CO2 stays in the air.

Respiration isn't neutral.

and then the termites die because they have nothing to eat and their bodies turn into fertilizer for the next generation of plants which take carbon out of the atmosphere.

over very short periods of time it's not neutral. over slightly longer periods of time (years or centuries), it is. over geologic periods of time, it's not, but we're cool with that because it gives evolution time to work.
 

Throckmorton

Lifer
Aug 23, 2007
16,830
3
0
Wow...you have absolutely no clue as to what you're talking about. Damn...and I thought you had promise.

The thing is, I DO have a clue what I'm talking about. I'm a geographer and this IS my field. I've debunked talking point after talking point. You're some internet yahoo who gets his information from climate change denier websites that quote non-peer reviewed papers and purposely misrepresent real phenomena. You're SO deluded that you're willing to dispute the known physical properties of a gas!
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
and then the termites die because they have nothing to eat and their bodies turn into fertilizer for the next generation of plants which take carbon out of the atmosphere.

over very short periods of time it's not neutral. over slightly longer periods of time (years or centuries), it is. over geologic periods of time, it's not, but we're cool with that because it gives evolution time to work.

then obviously everything we're doing in the long run will be neutral. sweet. because eventually that CO2 will come down be reabsorbed and turned into something else.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
The thing is, I DO have a clue what I'm talking about. I'm a geographer and this IS my field. I've debunked talking point after talking point. You're some internet yahoo who gets his information from climate change denier websites that quote non-peer reviewed papers and purposely misrepresent real phenomena. You're SO deluded that you're willing to dispute the known physical properties of a gas!

so you being a geologist means we should believe you when you talk about cosmic rays? i liked "i work in the oil industry" better. having actually worked in the oil industry i don't believe you
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
then obviously everything we're doing in the long run will be neutral. sweet. because eventually that CO2 will come down be reabsorbed and turned into something else.

You're being sarcastic, but this is true. If we can cut our emissions, the earth will indeed recapture the excess carbon. The problem is that we're currently putting it out much faster than the earth can recapture it, and becaues of all the feedback in the system, the effects are magnified.

On the other hand, why do I bother?
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,128
5,657
126
The SOP of a Denier:

1) GHG/GCC requires extraordinary "Proof"
2) Anti-GHG/GCC requires a Blog post
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,425
8,388
126
then obviously everything we're doing in the long run will be neutral. sweet. because eventually that CO2 will come down be reabsorbed and turned into something else.

oxygen wasn't. it poisoned the atmosphere and caused mass extinction. CO2 could be the same.
 
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