Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

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destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Let's be honest. No one cares about the ability to spend bitcoin. They only care about the ability to buy and sell bitcoin for speculation purposes. So it is store of value. The problem is, when and if the bubble pops and everyone is running for the exit at the same time, will they be able to get out? Or will it be like roach motel where you can enter but can't easily get out. If I owned bitcoin, that would be my biggest fear. When the panic starts, will you be able to get out alive? But until then, party on.

The South Korea news is affecting bitcoin price today but that country does have massive bitcoin speculation problem. It's going to end ugly there as massive number of housewives and regular Joes are involved in bitcoin trading and speculation. I would say it's equal to the US internet stock bubble of the late 90s or worse over there. So many ordinary people are leveraged and buying bitcoins in South Korea it's kind of scary. In the US, bitcoin is still no where near the mania phase. Not even close.

Yeah, Bitcoin isn't one I directly wish to hold because cashing out could be seriously difficult if it flash crashed hard. It's swings typically impact some of my holdings though, as bitcoin tends to be a bellwether of the broader crypto market in general.

The bubble talk is difficult though, because typical bubbles have been in commodities that have a truer hard value. For example the dot com bubble - valuations were astronomical, far higher than typical stock valuations based on revenue; a stock might trade at anywhere from 1-10x revenue, or even more, and I think stock bubbles tend to see companies valued grossly higher than even today's "probably too high" valuations for some stocks. We are sort of in an "app" bubble, where companies like Snap and the like are doing IPOs and reaching insane valuations when they haven't even turned a profit. That can't be directly compared to something like bitcoin, where there isn't any direct value basis. The oft-cited tulip mania isn't even directly comparable, because well, tulips can be planted and planted and planted, grown as much as you want. As soon as demand drops, you have a massive surplus. Cryptos can't just be grown like that, and in fact they are almost always going to be deflationary in the end, where new tokens aren't being generated at a significant rate. And these tokens, like BTC, are often "burned" too, so over time supply will certainly drop. Most of the tokens are destined to reach a point of zero new tokens being minted, while they will continue to see existing tokens burned, forever gone.

Now I'm not arguing that human emotions and hysteria won't be a factor, and there will be some insane price corrections over time, but generally if this is any kind of bubble, it's really the first of its kind, a whole new asset category.

As far as East Asia is concerned, those countries are just generally far more tech-obsessed than we'll ever be, and rapidly adopted cryptos for actual use far earlier. And some new very useful cryptos are typically launching over there because some are practically dividend-paying assets and even now the existing and potential regulations are less scarier than here in the US; the SEC has been vocalizing intent to disrupt any crypto that acts like a more normal investment vehicle (with dividends) unless they fully comply with all the standing regulations that exist for that market. In the end that'll be the only way forward I think, some regulation, but the launching party phase is trying to gain ground without regulations for now, which I think will work in the end if/when any regulations do come out in that region.

"What a time to be alive" is very fitting here, because one way or the other, we're going to learn a lot in the end and pave the way forward. Either all this will just blow over eventually, or will end up being the fin-tech revolution that has been promised since inception.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
It's all the same. This reminds me so much of the dot-com bubble. To me, it feels like 1998 rather than 2000. That's why I think this bubble has further legs before it pops. New alt coins are invented daily and eventually the supply of all the new coins will overwhelm just like the flood of dotcom IPOs coming to the market popped that bubble. And East Asia is not more tech-obsessed than us. Koreans just love to gamble. And unlike the US dotcom bubble, all these countries can participate on the bitcoin speculation. Trust me, the level of housewives involvement with bitcoin in South Korea is huge and scary. So many in that country is going to suffer when and if this bubble pops. I'm actually scared for them. Today's news out of South Korea just confirms the officials in that country are concerned as well. And they should be. But it might be too late for them.
 
Reactions: Zeze

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
Trust me, the level of housewives involvement with bitcoin in South Korea is huge and scary. So many in that country is going to suffer when and if this bubble pops. I'm actually scared for them. Today's news out of South Korea just confirms the officials in that country are concerned as well. And they should be. But it might be too late for them.

Where are you getting this info? This is fascinating.

I do think crypto is not a fad. It truly is a new ground-breaking that will establish a new norm whether through banking institutions (more likely) or replacing/disrupting fiat (less likely)

Any quality coins/projects you grab today, will pay off HUGE in next few years me thinks.

But then, WTF do I know.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
That's my thinking too. There may be a bubble in the larger market, but the quality players will remain standing and while there may be a dip for those as the market itself corrects, as projects fail more money will come into the main stays, especially if they have proven successful. Often in bubbles the real players remain standing. If you are trading you have to be wary of swings but depending on the length of your trades many of those wild swings may be meaningless.

Another driving force that allows those with the larger sails to catch the last breathes of hysteria will be taxation on fiat. It is going to be a hard sell legally that coin-to-coin trades can be taxed. That's a relatively new paradigm, trade pairs that don't involve something any country has stake in. If you can transfer USD into the market, and never receive currency or any other nationally-regulated entity (if there's ever a crypto to stock trade, that'd be regulated by default). That's going to allow those coins last standing to generate their own tailwinds, as while a USD -> BTC ... value explodes ... -> back to USD trade scenario has obviously got to be taxed by Federal standard, if you trade USD for BTC, and then when that explodes you trade it for ETH, and then trade for BCC/BCH (Bitcoin Cash) and buy from a store that takes it... I can't see any legal standing that allows the government to collect tax on growth... and I wonder what they say about cryptos and capital loss and offsetting gains. Now I'm curious on that.
 

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
Wow, big gains tonight.

My XRP is going up My VET is blowing up My ICX is blowing up

Someone hold me.
 
Reactions: Yakk

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Wow, big gains tonight.

My XRP is going up My VET is blowing up My ICX is blowing up

Someone hold me.
I think Stellar (XLM) is a better bet than XRP. There are unresolved problems with the consensus protocol for XRP and the ledger is still centralized. XLM fixes the protocol issues and uses a truly distributed ledger. The potential problem with it is that all of the coins were mined upon creation of the system so a huge volume of them is held by the Stellar foundation - although that's also true of XRP (held by founders I think).

Also XRP has more bank partners than Stellar but the latter is already creating a bank transfer network with IBM to cover the south pacific.

So on paper XRP is probably a better bet for the short term but for the long term I would get some XLM.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Where are you getting this info? This is fascinating.

I do think crypto is not a fad. It truly is a new ground-breaking that will establish a new norm whether through banking institutions (more likely) or replacing/disrupting fiat (less likely)

Any quality coins/projects you grab today, will pay off HUGE in next few years me thinks.

But then, WTF do I know.
https://www.ccn.com/survey-31-south-korean-professionals-cryptocurrency-investors/

There's so much demand for all crypto currency right now and not enough supply. It's just like the early days of internet stocks where the float was small and people were all chasing the few available stocks. There was mad rush by investment banks to list obscure companies with no business other than a website and cash in on the gold rush by all parties. Rising tide lifts all boats and obscure cryptos are all going to see ridiculous gains just like dotcom days. That's where the crazy money can be made. It wasn't AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon where the crazy money was made. You could print money with those too but the small guys were playing with trash like Be Free, Commerce One, Ariba, etc. Those went from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. You want ridiculous gains? Buy basket of all the obscure cryptos with the dumbest sounding names right now for cheap. It's all going to explode up and you'll literally print money and make more in one day than your annual salary at your job. Of course it's all going to come crashing down eventually but you can make stupid money if you time it right and cash out like Mark Cuban. I made stupid money as a kid during the dotcom days. If my balls hadn't shrunk from old age, I would be playing again. If you're poor and not playing and taking advantage of this free money, you're stupid.
 

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
https://www.ccn.com/survey-31-south-korean-professionals-cryptocurrency-investors/

There's so much demand for all crypto currency right now and not enough supply. It's just like the early days of internet stocks where the float was small and people were all chasing the few available stocks. There was mad rush by investment banks to list obscure companies with no business other than a website and cash in on the gold rush by all parties. Rising tide lifts all boats and obscure cryptos are all going to see ridiculous gains just like dotcom days. That's where the crazy money can be made. It wasn't AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon where the crazy money was made. You could print money with those too but the small guys were playing with trash like Be Free, Commerce One, Ariba, etc. Those went from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. You want ridiculous gains? Buy basket of all the obscure cryptos with the dumbest sounding names right now for cheap. It's all going to explode up and you'll literally print money and make more in one day than your annual salary at your job. Of course it's all going to come crashing down eventually but you can make stupid money if you time it right and cash out like Mark Cuban. I made stupid money as a kid during the dotcom days. If my balls hadn't shrunk from old age, I would be playing again. If you're poor and not playing and taking advantage of this free money, you're stupid.

How is that still possible today? Isn't it late?

Altcoin ICOs are coming out with already overvalued prices.
 

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,863
68
91
www.bing.com
https://www.ccn.com/survey-31-south-korean-professionals-cryptocurrency-investors/

There's so much demand for all crypto currency right now and not enough supply. It's just like the early days of internet stocks where the float was small and people were all chasing the few available stocks.

Huh? There's plenty of supply. With BTC alone, everyone in the world can own some, and still be very divisible beyond that. It's nothing like stocks. With no underlying asset, "supply" is totally arbitrary.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Huh? There's plenty of supply. With BTC alone, everyone in the world can own some, and still be very divisible beyond that. It's nothing like stocks. With no underlying asset, "supply" is totally arbitrary.

uhhhhhhh...
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Penny cryptos can be very lucrative to trade right now, just like penny stocks can be. Most of them will probably be wiped out when the Lightening Network gets deployed publicly, but in the meantime it's a feast I have to say.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,328
126
alright, say i have $100 to throw away.
which to put in and dont look back in say 5 years?
this is still affordable with $100. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/

Well it's only $100 but under normal circumstances I'd never even consider investing in something that had a 12,000% increase in the last month or so. Albeit the crypto bubble isn't anything close to a normal market so who knows.
 

pete6032

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2010
7,578
3,123
136
The wild price fluctuations and inflation of bitcoin means that it is not feasible to spend and use as an everyday currency. Through no fault of it's own, Bitcoin right now is failing to deliver on its promises, and has now become a store of value rather than a revolutionary currency.
 

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
The wild price fluctuations and inflation of bitcoin means that it is not feasible to spend and use as an everyday currency. Through no fault of it's own, Bitcoin right now is failing to deliver on its promises, and has now become a store of value rather than a revolutionary currency.
Which is why we got the huge rise of alternative coins that can do just that.
 

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,022
2,872
136
The problem with penny coins is, even when they go up rapidly, there's not enough volume to cash in on big investments. It's good to turn a quick buck when you're throwing small amounts of change around, but if you've put a lot in and want to sell, you still need a buyer.
 
Reactions: Charmonium

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Other problem is the sheer amount of XRP. Dealing with 100 billion ripple coins means they are already way, waaaaaaaaay overpriced, but people buy into them now anyways cause they're cheap.

Good for profit now... very, very good actually. But don't see a future for them and wouldn't want to be stuck holding the bag at the end with these.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
question?

One can own 1/100th of a BTC, and that is still only 210 million people in the world "that can own one"...and that isn't until c. 2024 when the absolute limit of 21 million BTC is reached and actually available in the world.

Are you actually arguing that there is no theoretical limit to the percentage of a single bitcoin that a person can own...therefore everyone can own one?

This is a weird argument and in fact--it is far, far, far, far easier for every single human on the planet to own a fucking penny (1/100th of a US dollar) that it ever will be for ever person on the planet to own 1/100th of a non-existent data point called bitcoin.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
The problem with penny coins is, even when they go up rapidly, there's not enough volume to cash in on big investments. It's good to turn a quick buck when you're throwing small amounts of change around, but if you've put a lot in and want to sell, you still need a buyer.

That depends on which penny coin you are looking at. Unlike penny stocks, "penny coin" doesn't mean it's a shitty organization/asset. It's all about how many coins are available, that creates the total valuation. There are plenty of coins that are pennies but have a market cap over $1 Billion USD. Take a look at Siacoin (distributed storage) and Bytecoin (general currency, same tech as Monero, as Monero actually split from Bytecoin, aka BCN). Bytecoin hasn't even hit a penny yet, current value is a tad over half a penny. Siacoin is at 3 cents right now. They have billions of tokens to their networks, as opposed to millions of tokens for the coins that are individually valued in dollars.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
One can own 1/100th of a BTC, and that is still only 210 million people in the world "that can own one"...and that isn't until c. 2024 when the absolute limit of 21 million BTC is reached and actually available in the world.

Are you actually arguing that there is no theoretical limit to the percentage of a single bitcoin that a person can own...therefore everyone can own one?

This is a weird argument and in fact--it is far, far, far, far easier for every single human on the planet to own a fucking penny (1/100th of a US dollar) that it ever will be for ever person on the planet to own 1/100th of a non-existent data point called bitcoin.

I mean, if we want to get technical, there will be about 2100 trillion satoshis available at maximum supply (less than that because coins have been lost/burned, forever gone). A satoshi is 0.00000001 (one hundred millionth) of a bitcoin, the smallest unit.

Let's say, years down the road, BTC reaches $1 million USD. One satoshi will then be worth 1 penny. EVERYONE CAN HAVE PENNIES! Multiple pennies! WOOT!

Nah, your argument is obviously still correct - it's ridiculous to say that we should be ecstatic for a gluttonous supply of satoshis, because everyone holding maybe even a dollar worth of satoshis is clearly enough supply.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Other problem is the sheer amount of XRP. Dealing with 100 billion ripple coins means they are already way, waaaaaaaaay overpriced, but people buy into them now anyways cause they're cheap.

Good for profit now... very, very good actually. But don't see a future for them and wouldn't want to be stuck holding the bag at the end with these.

Ripple could actually have a very useful market niche. And believe me, just because it's cheap on a per-unit basis doesn't mean traders aren't looking at market cap/total valuation. That factors in strongly, at least for the traders that move the large volumes. But those currencies that measure in the billions of tokens also have a purpose for that large of a supply: makes it easier to ensure major players across the globe can continue to move them for the actual purpose they were designed for. Ideally banks and other fin-tech players would all need to be constantly moving XRP and a large supply makes that easier. I don't know if it needs the valuation it has, because real-world use won't be trading XRP for USD or other fiat currency, it's about allowing data to flow quickly in a well-distributed way, and some probably has to be locked up for the network to function. I know SiaCoin is like that, about 32 billion coins exist for that network right now, but for the network to function, the users who are offering storage space have to lock up a certain number of coins as collateral. And other cryptos need coins locked up so that those accounts can help process the network.

NEM (XEM) is like that, even though it's designed as both a currency and an ethereum competitor (smart contracts) - mining for XEM works by locking up a large number of coins, it encourages clamping down on available supply and investment, your account can only grow if you lock up your funds.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Ripple could actually have a very useful market niche. And believe me, just because it's cheap on a per-unit basis doesn't mean traders aren't looking at market cap/total valuation. That factors in strongly, at least for the traders that move the large volumes. But those currencies that measure in the billions of tokens also have a purpose for that large of a supply: makes it easier to ensure major players across the globe can continue to move them for the actual purpose they were designed for. Ideally banks and other fin-tech players would all need to be constantly moving XRP and a large supply makes that easier. I don't know if it needs the valuation it has, because real-world use won't be trading XRP for USD or other fiat currency, it's about allowing data to flow quickly in a well-distributed way, and some probably has to be locked up for the network to function. I know SiaCoin is like that, about 32 billion coins exist for that network right now, but for the network to function, the users who are offering storage space have to lock up a certain number of coins as collateral. And other cryptos need coins locked up so that those accounts can help process the network.

NEM (XEM) is like that, even though it's designed as both a currency and an ethereum competitor (smart contracts) - mining for XEM works by locking up a large number of coins, it encourages clamping down on available supply and investment, your account can only grow if you lock up your funds.

"Alright the us dollar is so worthless it's worth less than 1 ripple."

Best line I heard today...

Yup, XEM/STR depending on the exchange is worthwhile, XEM/STR is on par the XRP in the hype right now and people are pouring tons money into them. I don't particularly see why aside from being able to say they own a whole coin of something, but I won't say no to profit from them!

I like Siacoin & STOJ, very interesting use for blockchain as a data store. They need their tokens to function & encrypt the data. Running a STOJ node on a NAS is a fun way to use extra space and get a few STOJ without the high energy use of GPU mining.
 

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
It's funny how absolutely fickle cryptocurrency is. Everyone was convinced BTC would break $20K by EOY few days before Christmas.

Now there's a HUGE FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in BTC... about its slow & expensive tx limits, how its market share dropped by half (80 -> 40%), etc.

I bought BTC at ATH ($18,700~). Now I'm tempted to cut my losses ('only' -25%~) and sell it for other alt coins.
 
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