destrekor
Lifer
- Nov 18, 2005
- 28,799
- 359
- 126
Let's be honest. No one cares about the ability to spend bitcoin. They only care about the ability to buy and sell bitcoin for speculation purposes. So it is store of value. The problem is, when and if the bubble pops and everyone is running for the exit at the same time, will they be able to get out? Or will it be like roach motel where you can enter but can't easily get out. If I owned bitcoin, that would be my biggest fear. When the panic starts, will you be able to get out alive? But until then, party on.
The South Korea news is affecting bitcoin price today but that country does have massive bitcoin speculation problem. It's going to end ugly there as massive number of housewives and regular Joes are involved in bitcoin trading and speculation. I would say it's equal to the US internet stock bubble of the late 90s or worse over there. So many ordinary people are leveraged and buying bitcoins in South Korea it's kind of scary. In the US, bitcoin is still no where near the mania phase. Not even close.
Yeah, Bitcoin isn't one I directly wish to hold because cashing out could be seriously difficult if it flash crashed hard. It's swings typically impact some of my holdings though, as bitcoin tends to be a bellwether of the broader crypto market in general.
The bubble talk is difficult though, because typical bubbles have been in commodities that have a truer hard value. For example the dot com bubble - valuations were astronomical, far higher than typical stock valuations based on revenue; a stock might trade at anywhere from 1-10x revenue, or even more, and I think stock bubbles tend to see companies valued grossly higher than even today's "probably too high" valuations for some stocks. We are sort of in an "app" bubble, where companies like Snap and the like are doing IPOs and reaching insane valuations when they haven't even turned a profit. That can't be directly compared to something like bitcoin, where there isn't any direct value basis. The oft-cited tulip mania isn't even directly comparable, because well, tulips can be planted and planted and planted, grown as much as you want. As soon as demand drops, you have a massive surplus. Cryptos can't just be grown like that, and in fact they are almost always going to be deflationary in the end, where new tokens aren't being generated at a significant rate. And these tokens, like BTC, are often "burned" too, so over time supply will certainly drop. Most of the tokens are destined to reach a point of zero new tokens being minted, while they will continue to see existing tokens burned, forever gone.
Now I'm not arguing that human emotions and hysteria won't be a factor, and there will be some insane price corrections over time, but generally if this is any kind of bubble, it's really the first of its kind, a whole new asset category.
As far as East Asia is concerned, those countries are just generally far more tech-obsessed than we'll ever be, and rapidly adopted cryptos for actual use far earlier. And some new very useful cryptos are typically launching over there because some are practically dividend-paying assets and even now the existing and potential regulations are less scarier than here in the US; the SEC has been vocalizing intent to disrupt any crypto that acts like a more normal investment vehicle (with dividends) unless they fully comply with all the standing regulations that exist for that market. In the end that'll be the only way forward I think, some regulation, but the launching party phase is trying to gain ground without regulations for now, which I think will work in the end if/when any regulations do come out in that region.
"What a time to be alive" is very fitting here, because one way or the other, we're going to learn a lot in the end and pave the way forward. Either all this will just blow over eventually, or will end up being the fin-tech revolution that has been promised since inception.