Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

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destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
It's funny how absolutely fickle cryptocurrency is. Everyone was convinced BTC would break $20K by EOY few days before Christmas.

Now there's a HUGE FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in BTC... about its slow & expensive tx limits, how its market share dropped by half (80 -> 40%), etc.

I bought BTC at ATH ($18,700~). Now I'm tempted to cut my losses ('only' -25%~) and sell it for other alt coins.

I'm well up still but some recent trades (after standing by just watching the value rise for some time) have apparently been ill-timed, right before major turn-downs across the market. Though SALT still looks like it is following a general trend even though I'm down, thankfully hardly at all, and I'd say it looks like a great buy in the long run.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
It's funny how absolutely fickle cryptocurrency is. Everyone was convinced BTC would break $20K by EOY few days before Christmas.

Now there's a HUGE FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in BTC... about its slow & expensive tx limits, how its market share dropped by half (80 -> 40%), etc.

I bought BTC at ATH ($18,700~). Now I'm tempted to cut my losses ('only' -25%~) and sell it for other alt coins.
You gotta have big balls to speculate or be young and reckless. Preferably both. You must have old man shriveled up balls like me if -25% paper loss is giving you second thoughts. During the dotcom days I had -$100k single day loss and multiple $100k single day gains. But I had balls of steel back then and was young and reckless. If I had bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it here.
 
Reactions: Ns1

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Yup...

Buying high, selling low makes you part of the target market by making you think of cutting your loses. Buying high & selling higher takes iron clad armored balls. The people who had BTC they bought years ago when BTC spiked & collapsed and held on for years before they could cash in their profits this year learned that the hard way.

Crypto really is the most brutal unregulated global market there is. Looks like easy money when the profits roll in, looks like the end of the world when market turns around.

Been like this for almost a decade now, no change in sight imo.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Other problem is the sheer amount of XRP. Dealing with 100 billion ripple coins means they are already way, waaaaaaaaay overpriced, but people buy into them now anyways cause they're cheap.

Good for profit now... very, very good actually. But don't see a future for them and wouldn't want to be stuck holding the bag at the end with these.
The idea behind XRP as well as XLM is that you'll have secondary markets where people trade XRP for local currencies. That allows you to use XRP and XLM as a type of clearing house for cross-border trades. IOW, if I want to move money from Saudi Arabia to the Philippines, first I need to change my riyals into Ripples or Lumens. That happens in the secondary market with market makers constantly making trades in the currencies in which they specialize. The cryptocurrency then gets transferred to its destination. At that point you need to change the Ripples or Lumens into Philippine pesos. Again, that depends on the secondary markets and market makers.

So the higher the volume of secondary market trades, the more demand you have for the cryptocurrency and therefore it increases in value.

The problem I see with Ripple though is that because of the issues with the consensus protocol, the ledger needs to be centralized. I don't remember the precise nature of the problem but to avoid ledger conflicts, you need a trusted party to oversee the ledger. That requires that it be centralized and that creates a single point of failure. My personal opinion is that no one is going to want to handle a huge volume of transactions over a system like that. We already have that with the SWIFT system. But all major banks use SWIFT so I might be wrong about whether this really presents an issue for banks.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
The idea behind XRP as well as XLM is that you'll have secondary markets where people trade XRP for local currencies. That allows you to use XRP and XLM as a type of clearing house for cross-border trades. IOW, if I want to move money from Saudi Arabia to the Philippines, first I need to change my riyals into Ripples or Lumens. That happens in the secondary market with market makers constantly making trades in the currencies in which they specialize. The cryptocurrency then gets transferred to its destination. At that point you need to change the Ripples or Lumens into Philippine pesos. Again, that depends on the secondary markets and market makers.

So the higher the volume of secondary market trades, the more demand you have for the cryptocurrency and therefore it increases in value.

The problem I see with Ripple though is that because of the issues with the consensus protocol, the ledger needs to be centralized. I don't remember the precise nature of the problem but to avoid ledger conflicts, you need a trusted party to oversee the ledger. That requires that it be centralized and that creates a single point of failure. My personal opinion is that no one is going to want to handle a huge volume of transactions over a system like that. We already have that with the SWIFT system. But all major banks use SWIFT so I might be wrong about whether this really presents an issue for banks.

Let's see with ripple... being centralized the 2 owners can create as much more ripple as they want as it is not mined. They can also freeze or reverse any transaction they want, and have done so in the past. Also remember you have to burn ripple in a transaction which is getting pretty costly by now, if anyone did any transactions they'd notice. As the owners can create as much more ripple as they want it won't matter to them. Also see the chart history of ripple, pump&dump central. (Pun intended )

XLM founder is formerly from Mt. Gox after an argument he left Ripple and created his own fork ... it's essentially the same coin with just enough code change to fork soooo... well... you can draw your own conclusions there.

It's an open market and everyone can send their money where they want, and those are highly profitable right now.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Let's see with ripple... being centralized the 2 owners can create as much more ripple as they want as it is not mined. They can also freeze or reverse any transaction they want, and have done so in the past. Also remember you have to burn ripple in a transaction which is getting pretty costly by now, if anyone did any transactions they'd notice. As the owners can create as much more ripple as they want it won't matter to them. Also see the chart history of ripple, pump&dump central. (Pun intended )

XLM founder is formerly from Mt. Gox after an argument he left Ripple and created his own fork ... it's essentially the same coin with just enough code change to fork soooo... well... you can draw your own conclusions there.

It's an open market and everyone can send their money where they want, and those are highly profitable right now.
I might be wrong about this but my understanding is that all XLM and XRP are pre-mined so no more can be created. Rather the issue is that a huge volume of both are held by a very small group of people - The Stellar Foundation in one case and Ripple's founders in the other.

But you're right, Stellar is a Ripple clone but the guy heading up the stellar foundation is one of the people who created Ripple. And as far as I know, only Stellar is actually being implemented for a cross-border payment system. That's a project Stellar is doing with IBM covering Australia and the S. Pacific.

So while I agree that the Ripple system is flawed, I think that Stellar is it's logical successor since it uses a decentralized ledger that isn't subject to the sorts of manipulation you've cited.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
So you are telling me all the latest "investors" who were buying at the mania of $19,000 + who have now lost 33% found this drop in their wallet "nothing new or unexpected"? Pshaw.

I can prove you wrong right now.....if what you say was true...then NOBODY would buy at the high KNOWING that it would lose 33% in just a couple of weeks.

In fact, if it goes below $10,000 soon ...why even touch it now? What about $8,000? Where is the bottom on this currency? I can understand being a supporter of bitcoin, but you have to give a little and realize that it went up too far, too fast and too soon.

Hmm, next support looks to be around $7,500. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't hold either, might though. You only lose if you sell low, it's a choice to be the market or not. It's not the get rich quick scheme it looks like unless you get lucky. It's a brutal market.

For sure it went up fast, nobody wants to buy in at the high but it happens. That's how markets work. Just like Forex ... without the stupid 1000x leverage offered to ordinary people a few years ago to shoot themselves with.

Edited.
 
Last edited:

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Let's see with ripple... being centralized the 2 owners can create as much more ripple as they want as it is not mined. They can also freeze or reverse any transaction they want, and have done so in the past. Also remember you have to burn ripple in a transaction which is getting pretty costly by now, if anyone did any transactions they'd notice. As the owners can create as much more ripple as they want it won't matter to them. Also see the chart history of ripple, pump&dump central. (Pun intended )

XLM founder is formerly from Mt. Gox after an argument he left Ripple and created his own fork ... it's essentially the same coin with just enough code change to fork soooo... well... you can draw your own conclusions there.

It's an open market and everyone can send their money where they want, and those are highly profitable right now.

Well here's the thing - XRP is meaningless, especially as a currency. The Ripple Network is what banks are looking into, and I think the tokens are merely tools to actually write the real-world money transactions into the network. The value of the token is meaningless for the network - banks aren't paying the price for massive amounts of tokens, the tokens are merely being passed around because that action writes the data to the ledger. It's a terrific concept for real-world money transfer, it's basically a super-fast bank-to-bank transfer system. Transfers are confirmed by means of recording them in a digital ledger, in a way that is "confirmed" across the world nearly instantaneously by the network ratifying it as a done deal with a unanimous vote. Inter-bank money has largely been digital for a long time now,. The way I've heard it, in a sentence, small-fry transactions are recorded and added to scheduled deliveries of large stores of assets when banks clear large numbers of individual transfers as a single transfer between themselves. But these transaction settlements can take days for the aggregate transactions to occur, so parties don't get access to the cash not because it doesn't exist in your bank's hands yet, but because trust is low in the current system because any large settlement of inter-bank trades can take a turn for the worst. I think the idea of a centralized network like RippleNet is to hold all parties accountable in a way that allows banks to ratify who is owed what rapidly and settle before assets even moves. And rarely does anything still physically move in the end, as the big banks that all the smaller banks hold at end up holding accounts at their national/central banks (which then bank with other national/central banks around the globe) which actually hold the vast majority of assets and account balances/ledgers note the movement. In short, RippleNet is supposed to be a far cheaper and even faster method of real-time settlement between more banks, as it also cuts down communication time between the different levels of banks as well. They all receive record of the transaction at the same time if they are listening to the same network.

XRP value is largely superfluous, it doesn't matter in the end, not for the customers of RippleNet. What I've read is the XRP transactions between all the banks are essentially pegged to their local currency at agreed-upon rates; the XRP transfers aren't happening on any retail exchange, there are just recorded on the network when two banks agree.

I probably have a lot of that wrong, but I'm certainly curious about the potential of crypto/blockchains and their tokens to not exactly replace fiat, but to represent it in a faster universal ledger.

Of course what Ripple is doing and achieving with their network has a lot of value, so retail XRP trade will be subject to the whims of perception -- where XRP ends up in terms of value though, I don't think has any real world implication for the network's health and/or prospects. Retail trading, I believe, serves a function as a way to propagate transaction history and write to the blockchain, thereby helping confirm prior transactions. What really happens, *I think* is that tiny amounts of XRP are moved alongside what amounts to ledger data of other asset transactions, and the XRP transaction, really just a tiny piece and unlikely whole units of XRP, is what serves as confirmation. I think the real world network turns that into a sort of smart contract but Ripple itself isn't using smart contracts. I say it's sort of because the XRP transaction data also serves as instructions for banks to settle their own larger transfers.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
The funny thing is that when there is a cryptocurrency that's actually designed to be used as a real currency (fast transaction times, high transaction volume, price stability controls, and government/institutional backing to prevent fraud), nobody here will want to invest in it. The returns on it would suck, because it will be designed to prevent inflation and huge price swings.
 
Reactions: Ns1

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Well here's the thing - snip
I believe you got that right except iirc, you can transfer any amount of money using just a single XRP token. So you wouldn't by x xrps for y dollars in order to transfer money.

However the people who invest in XRP think that eventually the banks would open the network up to individuals and that would be what would drive the price.

Personally, I don't think that's likely. It would make as much sense as letting individuals have a SWIFT account. In principle, I can see it happening but I don't think it would be worth the load on the network. Plus they get to charge fees for the use of the network. Why would they give that up.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
I believe you got that right except iirc, you can transfer any amount of money using just a single XRP token. So you wouldn't by x xrps for y dollars in order to transfer money.

However the people who invest in XRP think that eventually the banks would open the network up to individuals and that would be what would drive the price.

Personally, I don't think that's likely. It would make as much sense as letting individuals have a SWIFT account. In principle, I can see it happening but I don't think it would be worth the load on the network. Plus they get to charge fees for the use of the network. Why would they give that up.

Yeah I don't see that happening. It doesn't make sense - if Ripple catches on, the individual customers will reap the rewards of faster transfers. That's good enough for me - I don't want yet another payment processor to contend with. Actually it's not even that, it's just bank transfers, payments need a different network. But honestly, if a customer transfers to another account with the same bank, that should be instant. And when it's not, a network like Ripple should make it appear to be instant.


And yeah, as I went on, I caught onto the idea that it would likely be a random and tiny amount, probably just the equivalent of hundreds of satoshis as opposed to even one whole XRP.
 

Arcadio

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2007
5,637
24
81
One can own 1/100th of a BTC, and that is still only 210 million people in the world "that can own one"...and that isn't until c. 2024 when the absolute limit of 21 million BTC is reached and actually available in the world.
The absolute limit of 21 million Bitcoins will be reached a little later than 2024, in the year 2140. Specifically, May 7th, 2140.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Bitrefill first to successfully run Lightening Network real world test to pay phone bill with Bitcoin. Video link included.

As per developer; Speed=Instant, Fee=Zero.

https://www.coindesk.com/payment-provider-bitrefill-runs-successful-lightning-transaction-test/amp/

Mainnet Lightning Network paying my actual phone bill with actual Mainnet funds on @bitrefill. Speed: Instant. Fee: Zero. Future: Almost Here. https://t.co/futhn502Lp

And Lightening Network blog from Bitrefill https://blog.bitrefill.com/test-instructions-lightning-on-bitrefill-ef6db8714b00
 
Reactions: [DHT]Osiris

Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
11,210
1,080
126
I need an advice. My portfolio is 50% BTC, 15% VET, 35% others. I bought that 50% BTC at ATH ($187600~) before December dip. Should I sell all of my BTC to buy VET TONIGHT?

* If I did this, it hurts. I'm losing -25% of my BTC holding ($14,000 now) to buy VET.
* The conservative side of me thinks to leave BTC alone, but I'm feeling FOMO for VET. By the time BTC recovers, VET may have made much more returns. And I may regret not doing it.
* I have more fiat to invest from Coinbase by January 6. But I just think I can't wait that long. Who knows how much VET may grow in a week.

What do you think guys?

1. Should I dump BTC for VET at a 25% loss tonight?
2. Leave BTC alone and buy VET with more fiat full 6 days from today? (Saturday)
 

Arcadio

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2007
5,637
24
81
I need an advice. My portfolio is 50% BTC, 15% VET, 35% others. I bought that 50% BTC at ATH ($187600~) before December dip. Should I sell all of my BTC to buy VET TONIGHT?

* If I did this, it hurts. I'm losing -25% of my BTC holding ($14,000 now) to buy VET.
* The conservative side of me thinks to leave BTC alone, but I'm feeling FOMO for VET. By the time BTC recovers, VET may have made much more returns. And I may regret not doing it.
* I have more fiat to invest from Coinbase by January 6. But I just think I can't wait that long. Who knows how much VET may grow in a week.

What do you think guys?

1. Should I dump BTC for VET at a 25% loss tonight?
2. Leave BTC alone and buy VET with more fiat full 6 days from today? (Saturday)
Do you mean VEN?

If I were you I would sell some BTC, but not so much as to feel regret by selling at a loss.
 
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