OP:
If you want to wait for the AGP X800XL, and see what it costs, that is your perogative.
I will tell you this, which no one can dispute: the 6800GT is faster at most games/settings now. The 6800GT has a more advanced feature set. The 6800GT will allow you to see things you cannot see with a X800XL. (SM3 on Splinter Cell Chaos Theory, Soft Stencil Shadows on Riddick, and HDR on Far Cry)
If the AGP X800XL is "good enough" for you, you should buy one. It's not a gamble I would take, we've already seen three big games with nVidia only features released or demo'd in the year the nV40 has been out, how many more will there be over the two years you say you want to own this card?
Good luck with it.
If you want to wait for the AGP X800XL, and see what it costs, that is your perogative.
I will tell you this, which no one can dispute: the 6800GT is faster at most games/settings now. The 6800GT has a more advanced feature set. The 6800GT will allow you to see things you cannot see with a X800XL. (SM3 on Splinter Cell Chaos Theory, Soft Stencil Shadows on Riddick, and HDR on Far Cry)
If the AGP X800XL is "good enough" for you, you should buy one. It's not a gamble I would take, we've already seen three big games with nVidia only features released or demo'd in the year the nV40 has been out, how many more will there be over the two years you say you want to own this card?
Good luck with it.