x86 is history

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Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
Maybe he should ask the Hotel owner first before making grand declarations of war.

Progress is good is it not. The only thing I hate about this is the forum hype we will have to bare. Like larrabee. But on a grander scale as the hype machine goes to work in the forums.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
When you look at how a dual core Cortex A9 can't even beat a single core Atom, I find it hard to see what the real benefit of going with ARM is. Even look at the Cell and PowerPC processors. They were RISC, yet Apple switched to x86 for better performance.

I think NV would be onto something if they could come up with something twice as fast as an i7. I think that the odds of them doing that are about the same as the odds that Intel will produce a GPU twice as powerful as a GTX 580 anytime soon. In other words, it ain't gonna happen.

These "fusion" type chips seem like they'll be great in things like the iPad, but I really don't see them replacing gaming rigs for the next 5 years or so.

It could happen . So it well be NV/Arm Vs AMD APU Vs Haswell IGP if NV can get there chip out by 2014.
 

dac7nco

Senior member
Jun 7, 2009
756
0
0
Aren't x86 instructions a very small fraction of current (Core/K10) CPUs?
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,761
14,785
136
Even the MAC's now use Intel processors, they gave up on their own.

I don't see this happening anytime soon. (more than a decade away)
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
I dont know if we will ever see the demise of x86. But it will continue to lose its relevance year after year. I think Intel and AMD are going to be pigeon holed into a relatively shrinking market or be forced to jump on board the ultra mobile bandwagon. One of the most telling signs things are about to change is the announcement that Windows 8 will run on ARM. Microsoft wouldnt develop for that SOC if they didnt see a huge upside or a potential disaster if they dont get on it.

Windows has supported supposedly superior RISC processors (like the DEC Alpha) in the past, but it never caught on.

I'm not saying that the ARM version of Windows will fail as well, but I doubt that x86 is going away any time soon.
 

deimos3428

Senior member
Mar 6, 2009
697
0
0
android? chrome os? ipad? heard of those? when you consider millions of units sold, windows IS going away.
Smartphones are great. People are really jazzed they can play Wolfenstein 3D on their phones, or basic internet surfing, and other relatively simple tasks. When they can do all the hard things we need x86 for today, it'll go away.

Right now they can handle the rough equivalent of early 90s stuff, when the web and 3D gaming were new. This is about 16 years behind x86's current capabilities. I'll hedge a bit and boldly predict it'll take anywhere between 8 and 32 years for x86 to be surpassed. (See you in 2043!)
 

Nintendesert

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2010
7,761
5
0
I don't see Nvidia being a major player in its downfall. The market however for now is moving towards more mobile technology. Whether this proves to be a flash in the pan and temporary movement is debatable.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,425
8,388
126
When you look at how a dual core Cortex A9 can't even beat a single core Atom, I find it hard to see what the real benefit of going with ARM is. Even look at the Cell and PowerPC processors. They were RISC, yet Apple switched to x86 for better performance.

x86 has been RISC since the mid 90s. the problem with powerpc was manufacturing. and powerpc is hardly dead, it powers the ps3, wii, and xbox360.


Aren't x86 instructions a very small fraction of current (Core/K10) CPUs?
yup. since the pentium pro and the nx586 there has been a decoder sitting in front of the processor that takes x86 instructions and breaks them down/combines them, etc. into the processor's internal RISC code.
 
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Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
Meaning only AMD has the future potential looking at now.

That's the whole problem with x86. Only Intel is making a profit on it. So if anyone else wants to challenge them, they have to do it with a different architecture. AMD is deep in debt and bleeding millions every quarter. I think NVIDIA evaluated doing x86 and realized that (other than for Intel) it's a dead end.

While ARM has been huge on the mobile market, they may have created a chip that can take that success to the desktop.

Intel is not the first big company to get blindsided by new tech. They could end up like DEC/AOL/Myspace/3DFX/etc.
 

StinkyPinky

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2002
6,832
881
126
People simply assume Intel are just sitting around with thumbs up their arses. They are a massive company with massive resources and vast experience and lots of contacts in partner companies. I'm sure Intel can make chips for cellphones/tablets if they put the effort in.

Good luck to Nvidia as it is great to see more competition but I think Intel have their measure.
 

StinkyPinky

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2002
6,832
881
126
android? chrome os? ipad? heard of those? when you consider millions of units sold, windows IS going away.

Windows 7 is the best selling Windows in history. 150 million licences were sold in just 6 or so months. Probably double that now.

If Windows 8 has a stripped down version for tablets and netbooks (and it sounds like it will), then I suspect MS will continue to dominate the OS market.
 

veri745

Golden Member
Oct 11, 2007
1,163
4
81
That's the whole problem with x86. Only Intel is making a profit on it. So if anyone else wants to challenge them, they have to do it with a different architecture. AMD is deep in debt and bleeding millions every quarter. I think NVIDIA evaluated doing x86 and realized that (other than for Intel) it's a dead end.

While ARM has been huge on the mobile market, they may have created a chip that can take that success to the desktop.

Intel is not the first big company to get blindsided by new tech. They could end up like DEC/AOL/Myspace/3DFX/etc.

I think that by "bleeding millions every quarter", you actually mean, "made money every single quarter of 2010". AMD is doing just fine, and they have a boatload of new products coming out this year.

I do agree, however, that x86 could fall faster than most people expect, although I doubt it will become obsolete in the next decade.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
I think that by "bleeding millions every quarter", you actually mean, "made money every single quarter of 2010". AMD is doing just fine, and they have a boatload of new products coming out this year.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/14/amd_q3_2010_results/

3Q 2010 they lost $118,000,000

The only time I can remember them "making money" was for selling off their foundry and for suing Intel. Not from selling chips.
 

Ross Ridge

Senior member
Dec 21, 2009
830
0
0
ARM is conceivably a long term threat to Intel's (and AMD's) x86 VPUs in the server market, where performance per watt matters. On the desktop, workstations and even laptops, compatibilty and raw performance matters more. The PowerPC architecture has a better chance than ARM of gaining market share in the PC market.

The recent announcement of ARM support in Windows 8 says more about the failure of Intel and the Atom to make much headway in markets already dominated by ARM rather than the other way around.
 

Bateluer

Lifer
Jun 23, 2001
27,730
8
0
I think NVIDIA evaluated doing x86 and realized that (other than for Intel) it's a dead end.

Intel denied them the license to make a chipset for their CPUs with integrated memory controllers and denied them the license to make x86 CPUs. Its not that Nvidia couldn't or wouldn't develop an x86 chip, they couldn't legally do it.

Of course, they might have been able to purchase Via and use their license, but I'm not sure its transferable if bought. Might not have even been transferable to Via when they bought Centaur, but they don't sell enough volume for Intel to care.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
Intel denied them the license to make a chipset for their CPUs with integrated memory controllers and denied them the license to make x86 CPUs. Its not that Nvidia couldn't or wouldn't develop an x86 chip, they couldn't legally do it.

Of course, they might have been able to purchase Via and use their license, but I'm not sure its transferable if bought. Might not have even been transferable to Via when they bought Centaur, but they don't sell enough volume for Intel to care.

I think the recent FTC decision against Intel would have allowed NVIDIA to buy VIA (or even AMD I suppose) and maintain a x86 license. However, who other than Intel is actually making money on x86?
 

exar333

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2004
8,518
8
91
the only thing growing in the PC game market are Indie games. The rest are ported from consoles assuming they ever get ported...thats not really growing as it just keeping it afloat.
were already starting to see fewer desktops on store shelves and more lappy's with tablets getting ready to take up more shelf space.
by the time of next consoles release, depending on sales, there may not be as many ports, consoles will have all the AAA titles

Once most computers (Fusion/SB etc.) have decent graphics capability, will you even need a console anymore? That's the question. Then PC gaming will merge with console gaming and everything will essentially be 'PC gaming'.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
Windows has supported supposedly superior RISC processors (like the DEC Alpha) in the past, but it never caught on.

I'm not saying that the ARM version of Windows will fail as well, but I doubt that x86 is going away any time soon.

Those RISC chips were targetted at nich markets like high end workstation or severs. ARM is targetted at the masses and has the potential to sell by multiples over x86 devices. I agree x86 isnt going away for good. But I see it hitting a brick wall in terms of overall market penetration as mobile devices start moving by the billions vs hundreds of millions for x86 devices. MS see's the writing on the wall. If they want growth they will need to support these ARM powered devices.
 

veri745

Golden Member
Oct 11, 2007
1,163
4
81
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/14/amd_q3_2010_results/

3Q 2010 they lost $118,000,000

The only time I can remember them "making money" was for selling off their foundry and for suing Intel. Not from selling chips.

Operating income was $128M and non-GAAP (minus GF) net income was $108M.

GF is still losing money, AMD is not.

http://www.amd.com/us/press-releases/Pages/amd-reports-third-quarter-2010oct14.aspx

sorry for the OT response, I won't respond to Wreckage again.
 
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Arkadrel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2010
3,681
2
0
Nvidia has gone off its rockers.... smart phones replaceing intire pc systems? maybe for web browseing? but for anything more demanding? like gameing... I mean theres a reason dedicated grafics cards have the size they do right? The 600 gram heavy air coolers ontop of our CPUs... Nvidia really want us to buy into this "smart phone" solution that ll replace our pcs?

 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
5,529
0
0
Operating income was $128M and non-GAAP (minus GF) net income was $108M.

GF is still losing money, AMD is not.

http://www.amd.com/us/press-releases/Pages/amd-reports-third-quarter-2010oct14.aspx

GF is losing money making AMD chips. Once the 2 truly separate, AMD will have to report actually buying chips from GF.

x86 going away is about as likely as Windows going away
I love the irony of that statement when it's combined with Microsoft's announcement of Windows 8 for ARM.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
12,968
221
106
Nvidia has gone off its rockers.... smart phones replaceing intire pc systems? maybe for web browseing? but for anything more demanding? like gameing... I mean theres a reason dedicated grafics cards have the size they do right? The 600 gram heavy air coolers ontop of our CPUs... Nvidia really want us to buy into this "smart phone" solution that ll replace our pcs?


Yes, but where are consoles headed?

In 2005, Xbox 360 was using high end hardware (triple core Power PC) and a discrete graphics chip.

But what if the next generation doesn't start off so "High end"? Cheap Console SOC already optimized for 1080p effectively cripples the discrete video card gaming market. (HPC would be a different story)
 
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