x86 is history

[Wreckage]

http://www.fudzilla.com/mobiles/item/21438-nvidia-believes-that-x86-is-history

Jensen compared the x86 architecture to defunct Circuit City

:biggrin:

OK it's mostly humorous. But I wonder if we could finally be seeing the beginning of the end for x86? It's been around a long time and many say that its starting to show its age. GPUs are starting to take over the super computer realm and simpler chips are eating away the low end. x86 is stuck in the middle and that middle could disappear. Intel is the only company actually making a real profit on x86, so it's not nearly as widespread as ARM.

Granted we are talking a decade at least for a total collapse, but it could happen.

 

[stahlhart]

I suppose if it happened to DEC, it could happen to Intel.

 

[Bateluer]

Granted we are talking a decade at least for a total collapse, but it could happen.

Doubtful. At least, not within a decade. Too much critical infrastructure, not to mention most datacenters, are entirely x86. Shoot, the change from 32bit to 64bit hasn't even fully completely yet.

Not saying ARM won't eat away at x86's market share, but its not like Intel is going to remain stationary either. They've got extremely low power versions of x86 chips coming. I'm still hoping they'll open up most of the x86 standard.

 

[Genx87]

I dont know if we will ever see the demise of x86. But it will continue to lose its relevance year after year. I think Intel and AMD are going to be pigeon holed into a relatively shrinking market or be forced to jump on board the ultra mobile bandwagon. One of the most telling signs things are about to change is the announcement that Windows 8 will run on ARM. Microsoft wouldnt develop for that SOC if they didnt see a huge upside or a potential disaster if they dont get on it.

 

[zephyrprime]

Eh, it's like the same old story with risc all over again. Only now, x86 has been improved substantially with x86-64 and the transistor budgets of ARM chips is higher than the RISC chips of yore so having to spend some transistors on decoders isn't as big of a deal.

I don't really see it. The real issue is that Intel and AMD have been real flatfooted in the mobile and embedded markets. Intel's been mostly ignoring embedded for it's entire history. Now that some embedded chips are actually more powerful, the market has become worthwhile.

 

[BBMW]

What would the compelling reason be for anyone buying anything above the smartphone/pda/tablet level to switch to this? In the markets it dominates, everyone seems pretty well served by x86-64.

 

[Wreckage]

What would the compelling reason be for anyone buying anything above the smartphone/pda/tablet level to switch to this? In the markets it dominates, everyone seems pretty well served by x86-64.

I would assume that the average consumer has no idea what x86 is. So if the next Mac or even Dell had an ARM chip and they were able to facebook on it, they would be none the wiser.

 

[grimpr]

Maybe he should ask the Hotel owner first before making grand declarations of war.

 

[Cogman]

Of course nvidia thinks x86 is dead, they have been saying the same sort of nonsense since around 2000.

Now, don't get me wrong. I think that the x86 architecture is a hindrance more than a help. But that doesn't mean that it is going away any time soon. It is so ingrained into so many environment that it is hard to see it suffer extinction.

Think of it like COBOL. People know that it needed to die, and yet it still exists strictly for legacies sake. I see x86 being the same way. Even if a new standard takes hold and starts to kick the x86 architecture out of the PC world, businesses will keep it alive for another 20 years after that happens.

 

[SickBeast]

When you look at how a dual core Cortex A9 can't even beat a single core Atom, I find it hard to see what the real benefit of going with ARM is. Even look at the Cell and PowerPC processors. They were RISC, yet Apple switched to x86 for better performance.

I think NV would be onto something if they could come up with something twice as fast as an i7. I think that the odds of them doing that are about the same as the odds that Intel will produce a GPU twice as powerful as a GTX 580 anytime soon. In other words, it ain't gonna happen.

These "fusion" type chips seem like they'll be great in things like the iPad, but I really don't see them replacing gaming rigs for the next 5 years or so.

 

[Wreckage]

When you look at how a dual core Cortex A9 can't even beat a single core Atom

Not that an Atom would fit in a cell phone.

 

[Meghan54]

These "fusion" type chips seem like they'll be great in things like the iPad, but I really don't see them replacing gaming rigs for the next 5 years or so.

But, first, gaming rigs are not even a proverbial drop in the bucket when it comes to market and share.....

Second, the mobile devices, if they get powerful enough, will become the PCs of the near future with game consoles taking over the "gaming" sector completely. The writing's already on the wall with the ipad sales figures.

If the cost of the ipad had been lower, sales would have been much higher.....the vast majority of people don't use computers for gaming, video transcoding, etc., they use them for email, Facebook and its games, web browsing, writing some papers....nothing a tad more powerful and full featured tablet couldn't perform very well.

 

[SickBeast]

Not that an Atom would fit in a cell phone.

That's not even what NV is targeting with this announcement. I would think that you of all people should know that. They are going after the high end PC market with this product. If they can do it, hats off to them. Like I said though, Intel is more likely to release a Larrabeast that's twice as fast as a GTX 580. You do the math and then talk to your NV friends about it.

:thumbsup::thumbsup:

:whiste:

 

[nyker96]

who the heck is Jensen !? Is he a CPU expert? I think not.

 

[Genx87]

That's not even what NV is targeting with this announcement. I would think that you of all people should know that. They are going after the high end PC market with this product. If they can do it, hats off to them. Like I said though, Intel is more likely to release a Larrabeast that's twice as fast as a GTX 580. You do the math and then talk to your NV friends about it.

:thumbsup::thumbsup:

:whiste:

Where did you get they are targetting high end PC's with Tegra 2? When have they ever gone beyond tablets and possibly a netbook with Tegra 2?

Nvidia targets high end gaming pc's with their Geforce line of products. What Nvidia is saying and it is correct. Mobile and tablet ships over the next decade are going to absolutely dwarf x86 shipments. If Nvidia can corner a big enough marketshare. They could ship more processors than AMD and Intel.

 

[SickBeast]

But, first, gaming rigs are not even a proverbial drop in the bucket when it comes to market and share.....

Second, the mobile devices, if they get powerful enough, will become the PCs of the near future with game consoles taking over the "gaming" sector completely. The writing's already on the wall with the ipad sales figures.

If the cost of the ipad had been lower, sales would have been much higher.....the vast majority of people don't use computers for gaming, video transcoding, etc., they use them for email, Facebook and its games, web browsing, writing some papers....nothing a tad more powerful and full featured tablet couldn't perform very well.

I'm a gamer, and I just can't see myself gaming on a tablet. I would need to have a $1500 laptop to even come close to what my $350 gaming system can do.

With heat and power consumption so high on high-end gaming rigs, I just can't see a tablet competing in terms of performance.

The consoles are way behind the PC in terms of power right now. IMO we'll see the PC gaming market grow until new consoles are released.

 

[SickBeast]

Where did you get they are targetting high end PC's with Tegra 2? When have they ever gone beyond tablets and possibly a netbook with Tegra 2?

Nvidia targets high end gaming pc's with their Geforce line of products. What Nvidia is saying and it is correct. Mobile and tablet ships over the next decade are going to absolutely dwarf x86 shipments. If Nvidia can corner a big enough marketshare. They could ship more processors than AMD and Intel.

I was talking about Project Denver, not Tegra 2.

 

[extra]

I think NV would be onto something if they could come up with something twice as fast as an i7. I think that the odds of them doing that are about the same as the odds that Intel will produce a GPU twice as powerful as a GTX 580 anytime soon. In other words, it ain't gonna happen..

Yeah. That, pretty much. I could see ARM moving up to the netbook/laptop space, and cheap PC space, in the next 10 years, for sure. But I don't see x86 going anywhere in the next 20 years....imho. Intel is one of the toughest tech companies in the world. They have a history of coming through with solid products. They have a history of executing very well, even if they don't have the best product at the time (p4 era). AMD has managed to survive despite being tiny compared to Intel, despite anti-competitive practices, and despite all the other x86 competitors going away and disappearing (i guess you could count VIA if you wanted). Despite the huge uphill battle they face, they are still around, and in fact Intel uses the 64-bit stuff AMD created.

To say that Nvidia's ARM chip spells the doom of x86-64 and that x86 will be gone in 10 years seems a bit premature. They don't have CPU building experience and the understanding of the CPU market that Intel and AMD have. No one does. If the market is demanding ARM compatibility, I would believe AMD and Intel could put out a high performance ARM cpu better than Nvidia could, at this point.

 

[sandorski]

x86 was at its' end in the mid-1980's...

 

[Wreckage]

That's not even what NV is targeting with this announcement.

Then why were you comparing a cell phone chip to the Atom? This new chip will apparently be a desktop chip (so larger/faster).

 

[dguy6789]

x86 going away is about as likely as Windows going away

 

[OBLAMA2009]

there isnt a very big market for what hes planning to come up with. he should have at least waited until he had an actual product before making that statement. also i highly doubt people are going to give up their 4 ghx i7's and replace them with 1 ghz tegras just because he says "i86 is dead"

 

[aigomorla]

Then why were you comparing a cell phone chip to the Atom? This new chip will apparently be a desktop chip (so larger/faster).

because the only real market arm has is in the cell phone / hand helds.

You dont poke a charging ogre!
How many times do we need to say this?

Even Transmeta with the backing of sony got clobbered by intel in the long run:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmeta

If you really think ARM is gonna take off, then intel will say:

"OK, we'll show u a new gen ARM type cpu which will kill our competition because we have the FAB's, and we don't care about monopoly issues because we're already giving a ton of money in fines to the government."

You dont piss off intel.. you either avoid them entirely, or your company's name is AMD.

Meaning only AMD has the future potential looking at now.

 

[VirtualLarry]

The writing's already on the wall with the ipad sales figures.

If the cost of the ipad had been lower, sales would have been much higher.....the vast majority of people don't use computers for gaming, video transcoding, etc., they use them for email, Facebook and its games, web browsing, writing some papers....nothing a tad more powerful and full featured tablet couldn't perform very well.

This is true. But thanks to Intel (primarily), the "masses" (facebook, etc., users) have subsidized the R&D of our beloved (as enthusiasts) high-end CPUs. That's going to end soon, what with the computing masses moving to a low-cost, low-power, "good enough" platform, leaving what few enthusiasts are left with the meager high-end market, in which cases high prices are just going to get higher. Might even have to start purchasing enterprise (server) hardware, as Intel might just stop marketing to the high-end enthusiast.

 

[HeXen]

The consoles are way behind the PC in terms of power right now. IMO we'll see the PC gaming market grow until new consoles are released.

the only thing growing in the PC game market are Indie games. The rest are ported from consoles assuming they ever get ported...thats not really growing as it just keeping it afloat.
were already starting to see fewer desktops on store shelves and more lappy's with tablets getting ready to take up more shelf space.
by the time of next consoles release, depending on sales, there may not be as many ports, consoles will have all the AAA titles