Xbit: TSMC vows to ramp up 28nm production in 2012,start manufacturing 20nm in 2013

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tommo123

Platinum Member
Sep 25, 2005
2,617
48
91
I can't see a competitive x86 chip in the smartphone-world, and I can't see Intel being competitive outside of x86.

haven't we learned by now to not underestimate intel? that whole 50% might even change in time. i mean what's better financially? 50% profits of 0? or 20% profits on billions?

the smartphone race has just begun and will be worth a hell of a lot more in a decade than it is now. there is no way in hell, that intel is not going to enter that market and pass up all that $

worse still, allowing ARM to get a real foothold.

android can be run on x86 as of ICS no? gives us an inkling at least
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
12,968
221
106
Their ASPs for Atom chips are only $25. Pricing shouldn't be a problem, as long as they stand on the premium ladder. Higher volumes of chips sold would help lower pricing(or increase margins at the same price). $25 for 40 million units/year. If they capture 20% of Smartphone marketshare, it would be 80 million units/year.

80 million units a year would be a great goal for Intel, but I feel they will face a massive uphill battle as the situation currently stands.

Mention of one problem can be found here.

The problem is that the java machine for android contains some critical tuning for ARM neon architecture. On x86 and other architecture you end up with lower perfomance, poor battery and possibly with crashing (ANR Error).

We need someone to invest a huge amount of money on improving the JVM for x86 or MIPS. Oracle will not do it, and Google is worried with the explosion of cost of android development, so....

I would think a situation like that puts x86 Smartphone cpu at a significant disadvantage. This without even getting into the debate of which CPU is better for lower power Smartphones: ARM or x86.

So where does that leave Intel strategy?

Well I guess they could temporarily lower the price of the Atom Smartphone SOC and then raise it later on to get back on the "premium ladder", but I am not sure how far that would go? Probably not far.

Maybe one workaround Intel is thinking about involves lowering smartphone TCO by bypassing the wireless carriers? This would allow Intel to maintain a high profit margin (or even increase profit margin).

Of course, Steve Jobs had this idea back in 2005-2007 prior to launching the original iphone. http://www.macworld.com/article/163...ted_own_network_with_unlicensed_spectrum.html

Steve Jobs initially hoped to create his own network with the unlicensed spectrum that Wi-Fi uses rather than work with the mobile operators, said wireless industry legend John Stanton.

Stanton, currently chairman at venture capital firm Trilogy Partnership, said he spent a fair amount of time with Jobs between 2005 and 2007. "He wanted to replace carriers," Stanton said of Jobs, the Apple founder and CEO who passed away recently after a battle with cancer. "He and I spent a lot of time talking about whether synthetically you could create a carrier using Wi-Fi spectrum. That was part of his vision."

Maybe graphene xtors will make this possible for Intel in the upcoming age? Enabling X86 and whatever non-x86 CPU Intel is developing to bypass ARM and attack from a lower cost spot (like I mentioned earlier....without hurting profit margin)

One article discussing Graphene's relationship to enhancing Wifi can be found here.

One promising application for graphene is in making new parts of the radio-frequency spectrum available for consumer electronics applications, said Richard Doherty, president of Envisioneering Inc., an industry consulting firm.

“It allows you to tame a spectrum that before was the wild, wild West,” he said. For example, it might make possible a new class of WiFi-style communications gear for wireless applications, or allow set-top cable boxes to be redesigned to send and receive ever-larger amounts of high-resolution video and data.
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
So where does that leave Intel strategy?

One thing that concerns me is that Intel has a history of making some monumentally short-sighted strategic decisions.

Remember their first foray into the mobile phone market?

How about their intentions to dominate the HDTV set-top market?

And then of course we have Larrabee and the GPU market.

Netburst was a net bust.

Itanium did not turn out to be Itanic, it is still afloat, but it is infamous for this:


What history tells us is that Intel is not afraid of taking risks, and they aren't afraid of betting big and walking away from billion dollar investments that just don't pan out.

Who knows what big plan Intel has in the works, and what untold billions are allocated to supporting the effort. But will it stick?
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,842
5,457
136
That's funny that Dalvik sucks on x86. Guess stiffing Oracle has it's drawbacks.

I'm not sure where Atom fits in Android, even if Dalvik worked fine on x86. It's power consumption is too high for smartphones; and the Fire (and it's under cost friends) has pretty much destroyed the non-iPad tablet market... not that there was much of one to begin with.

I'm not sure what Intel can do actually. Maybe they should just buy ARM.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
12,968
221
106
One thing that concerns me is that Intel has a history of making some monumentally short-sighted strategic decisions.

Remember their first foray into the mobile phone market?

How about their intentions to dominate the HDTV set-top market?

And then of course we have Larrabee and the GPU market.

Netburst was a net bust.

Itanium did not turn out to be Itanic, it is still afloat, but it is infamous for this:


What history tells us is that Intel is not afraid of taking risks, and they aren't afraid of betting big and walking away from billion dollar investments that just don't pan out.

Who knows what big plan Intel has in the works, and what untold billions are allocated to supporting the effort. But will it stick?

Yep, It is amazing to me that Intel with all these failures somehow manages to still stay a large company (with the best fabs).

You just have to wonder where they could be if they got a new major project to succeed.

Therefore with the situation of heat density on 16nm and especially 10nm possibly conspiring to close the gap between Intel and ARM I figure Intel will probably focus their strategy on lowering TCO for various systems (server, smartphone) and in the process attempt to increase their hardware margins.

In fact, I am really hoping they can take Wireless/software/SOC tech even further and not only set us free from the carriers, but from the necessity of buying from the device makers as well. As it stands now the device makers and their product differentiation schemes have a lot of power. However, I strongly suspect a game changing Intel smartphone SOC that was appropriately priced with a good roadmap could give us (the consumers) the choice of avoiding that if we wanted to.
 
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Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
I love that graph.

That graph is really sad...it's the part of the reason we are still stuck with x86 and all it's legacy crap and havn't moved on to a more future oriented ISA...without all the "baggage".

I know most people are hot in love with AMD64...but in the long term that ISA just postponed the most sane solution.
If anything is "shortsigthed"...it's AMD64...
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
That graph is really sad...it's the part of the reason we are still stuck with x86 and all it's legacy crap and havn't moved on to a more future oriented ISA...without all the "baggage".

I know most people are hot in love with AMD64...but in the long term that ISA just postponed the most sane solution.
If anything is "shortsigthed"...it's AMD64...

Do you program in assembly? If not, why do you care?

BTW, try programming in Itanium assembly. It kind of sucks.
 

Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
Do you program in assembly? If not, why do you care?

BTW, try programming in Itanium assembly. It kind of sucks.

I care because of the impact on die size/cluttering.
I'm a hardware guy., I don't like software legacy to clutter up the physical die..."estate" that could be used for better things.
 

Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
http://www.xbitlabs.com/images/cpu/core-i7-3960x-3930k/die.png

Notice how the majority of the chip, despite its 8 cores, is just gobs of fast cache, memory controller, I/O, uncore, etc.? The "legacy" parts of x86 are just so incredibly small compared to the rest of the chip.

I wouldn't worry too much about "cluttering".

Would you mind makring out the parts that you mention?
And again, even if we were taling about 0,001% of the core it would be 0,001% too much.
(The actual figure is much larger)
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,554
2
76
One thing that concerns me is that Intel has a history of making some monumentally short-sighted strategic decisions.

Remember their first foray into the mobile phone market?

How about their intentions to dominate the HDTV set-top market?

And then of course we have Larrabee and the GPU market.

Netburst was a net bust.

Itanium did not turn out to be Itanic, it is still afloat, but it is infamous for this:


What history tells us is that Intel is not afraid of taking risks, and they aren't afraid of betting big and walking away from billion dollar investments that just don't pan out.

Who knows what big plan Intel has in the works, and what untold billions are allocated to supporting the effort. But will it stick?
that graph is hilarious
they'll stick with it if ARM infringes on their market segment enough, which will happen one of these days...
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,554
2
76
BTW, try programming in Itanium assembly. It kind of sucks.
yeah it's basically impossible to get any sort of superscalar performance out of it without the perfect dataset to work on, and writing a compiler that can dynamically optimize (IE in the way a human can by looking at the code) turned out to be basically impossible. It was a worthy effort.
To be honest I think they could have gotten really far if they dumped money into PhD students trying to write research papers on optimization techniques. The world will never know what Itanium could have been...
 

Fox5

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2005
5,957
7
81
yeah it's basically impossible to get any sort of superscalar performance out of it without the perfect dataset to work on, and writing a compiler that can dynamically optimize (IE in the way a human can by looking at the code) turned out to be basically impossible. It was a worthy effort.
To be honest I think they could have gotten really far if they dumped money into PhD students trying to write research papers on optimization techniques. The world will never know what Itanium could have been...

From a high level, I think the Radeon GPUs use a similar architecture. They seem to be doing OK for compute, with way more sales than Itanium ever had. Although, it would be interesting to see if AMD's Firestream line is outselling Itanium.
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
From a high level, I think the Radeon GPUs use a similar architecture. They seem to be doing OK for compute, with way more sales than Itanium ever had. Although, it would be interesting to see if AMD's Firestream line is outselling Itanium.

GPU computing is rather interesting because you can throw thousands of threads at the GPU and it won't bat an eye. If the computing element stalls on one thread, it can quickly switch to the next one and so one.
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
Would you mind makring out the parts that you mention?
And again, even if we were taling about 0,001% of the core it would be 0,001% too much.
(The actual figure is much larger)

Do you mainly use an x86 computer? If so, why?
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,554
2
76
From a high level, I think the Radeon GPUs use a similar architecture. They seem to be doing OK for compute, with way more sales than Itanium ever had. Although, it would be interesting to see if AMD's Firestream line is outselling Itanium.

yeah it pretty much worked (ie was superscalar) on large datasets and that's it.
 

grimpr

Golden Member
Aug 21, 2007
1,095
7
81
That graph is really sad...it's the part of the reason we are still stuck with x86 and all it's legacy crap and havn't moved on to a more future oriented ISA...without all the "baggage".

I know most people are hot in love with AMD64...but in the long term that ISA just postponed the most sane solution.

Yes, the final solution.

 

Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
Do you mainly use an x86 computer? If so, why?

Most of my time is actually spent on Octeon CPU' s(Multi-Core MIPS64 processors)...most of my time is spent inside a Juniper routing engine, I only have PC's (CPU and GPU's) as an hobby and a side "thingy" when I get tired of watching bits flow across our corenetwork.

But nice try
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
Most of my time is actually spent on Octeon CPU' s(Multi-Core MIPS64 processors)...most of my time is spent inside a Juniper routing engine, I only have PC's (CPU and GPU's) as an hobby and a side "thingy" when I get tired of watching bits flow across our corenetwork.

But nice try

Good for you. And how much would it cost for me to buy an Octeon system? What kind of specs would I get for that price? How many GFLOPs can it do for that price?

Also, why don't you have one of these at home? or do you?
 
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ncalipari

Senior member
Apr 1, 2009
255
0
0
From a high level, I think the Radeon GPUs use a similar architecture. They seem to be doing OK for compute, with way more sales than Itanium ever had. Although, it would be interesting to see if AMD's Firestream line is outselling Itanium.

yes but Itanium can handle integers pretty well, unlike GPGPU.

Consider that databases prefer integers to FP.
 

Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
Good for you. And how much would it cost for me to buy an Octeon system? What kind of specs would I get for that price? How many GFLOPs can it do for that price?

Also, why don't you have one of these at home? or do you?

GFLOPS is the wrong metric...you should google what a routing engine does...and look at Gbit/s
 
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