It would be an outrageous to claim that XBox is a success, even though it's yet too early to call it a failure. If you want the true definition of that you've got to look at PS1. That was Sony's first attempt in the business and it made them kings. Can't imagine PS2 still selling strong in 2004? Well, neither did most people imagine PS1 still selling strong in 1999! Sony crunched every bit of juice out of PS1 and expect them to do the same with PS2. The market share MS gained was not from Sony, it was mainly from Sega's leftovers and Nintendo. No one can disagree that PS1 had incredibly strong sales, but note that PS2 is currently selling at a rate of 2.5 times the rate that PS1 was selling at. I just don't see how XBox and NGC is seriously affecting PS2's sales right now.
The XBox radicals here should open their eyes. Because the video game business doesnt evolve around the North America; in fact, what matters most is the market in Japan. Sega seized hardware production because DC couldn't sell in Japan. Nintendo lost their monopoly because they didn't have anything against the PS1 in Japan, and not even N64 could regain the crown for them. XBox's sales looks awfully bad because it couldnt sell in Japan no matter how much they cut the price and what they put in the bundle. XBox, if keeps relying on PC game ports, will not suceed in Japan because computer games to video games is David to Goliath in Japan. You can argue that both DC and XBox sold all right in the US, so who cares what goes on in Japan? But matter of fact is, success in Japan is vital for survival. It was in Japan that Sega failed, and it was in Japan that Nintendo lost. And I will bet, if XBox keeps struggling in Japan, MS might not even release XBox2 there, and thus receive less support from big-name Japanese game makers. And here is a hard truth for MS, there is very little demand for XBox outside of North America. So how good is an XBox that kicks ass on paper but doesn't go international?
Some of you argue that PS2 needed a period of time to get rolling, which is true. But XBox has already had 11 months to do that. PS2, by its 11th month, was tearing up the sales charts, both in consoles shipped and games sold. XBox's second year will be a crucial one, if it still wants to make a run at PS2 for its money, it will have to accomplish a lot more than they did in 2002, otherwise I can only imagine an unhappy ending to MS's shot in the video game market. There is no brand loyalty involved here, people simply buy the best console out there because there is just something about the PS2 that makes it that much more appealing. If brand loyalty plays such a significant role then Nintendo and Sega should never find themselves in the position they are in today. The XBox, at the current state, will not attract people who already have capable PCs, and will hardly attract true console gamers because of its PC resemblance and reliance on ports. What MS should do is try to stop treating the video game business like it's computer games. Be agressive in negotiating with the Japanese game makers, land contracts with them so that they will develop their big titles on XBox, and get them to make exclusive games for XBox. It is these Japanese game makers that will make the difference, because most US game makers are multi-platform. What's more from these Japanese makers? Diversity and games that will sell in Japan, which is key to selling the consoles in Japan, because sports and shooter games don't propel you to the top. If XBox can do those in 2003, it will pick up in the sales and popularity, because I tell you the truth, few true console gamers take the XBox seriously right now.