Xbox Two and PS5 Predictions

[FreshBross]

The features and distribution the market really wants is limited by what is profitable. Fully agree with the feedback that streaming games is not fully possible in the US right now. The infrastructure for the required bandwidth still lacks in many many many places. Some countries are likely ready to start adoption and testing phases on markets, such as South Korea, Japan, Ireland, Sweden and even Netherlands. But the physical aspect of games will not be replaced in the next 5 years just yet, digital downloads included.

Streaming will also be a continuously optimized protocol that service providers will have to support at a cost, I can only imagine the complains and front line tech support dealing with lag... they know this, they are not in a hurry. There's money to be made by selling the games and selling in-game, and as @SteveGrabowski just said, exclusive titles are part of the business model that support console sales.

As consumers, we get the shorter end of the stick, I too would love to at least see cross-platform multiplayer, but even that seems to be much for some of the moguls.

 

[Justinbaileyman]

I would hate if that happened. This generation Sony has put a lot of money into some great exclusives to get people to buy into their platform, almost like a loss leader. I imagine we'd see a lot less investment in quality single player games from Sony if anyone could buy their game and just play it on XBox or PC. You get people to buy your console for God of War or Bloodborne and they'll probably buy Call of Duty, Fortnite, Battlefield, GTA, and so on on your console too. Take that away and there is no point of loss leader exclusives and then the way to maximize profit is to turn these great single player franchises like The Last of Us, God of War, Uncharted, etc into crap shooters, survival games, MMOs, etc like Bethesda has done with Fallout and Elder Scrolls.

I wasnt talking about sony I was talking about Microsoft only

 

[darkswordsman17]

My prediction:
PS5 in 2019
UHD Blu-ray drive
1TB HDD
100GB USB 3 flash thumb drive (you can download games to it at stores), but stores the games on the drive and loads them right off of it. Pretty fast (faster than HDD), but can only store about 1AAA modern game (but can store several others) for fast load times. So a game you play a lot you'll swap to the drive and play from there, while others get pushed to the HDD. Special Editions of games will come on their own drive so you don't have to swap.
AMD Navi GPU
6core/12Thread AMD Zen based CPU
12GB GDDR5X
~6.7TF
$449 (but comes with a game)

PS4 Pro is discontinued, new PS4 version that ditches the Blu-ray drive and uses the thumb drive, where you can backup games to a computer or plugin an external HDD. Gets clos-ish to PS2 Slim size, called something odd like Playstation Basic (so as to break from it being basically a PS4). $199

Also a new ~2K (2560x1440, or maybe it'll have one of those 2:1 ratio phone resolutions (like 2880x1440) PSVR headset.

NeXBox in 2020
Optional UHD drive (maybe even external, like the 360's HD-DVD drive, but would be more svelte like some of the external drive options for the Mac Mini where it stacks and looks very similar).
256GB SSD
Optional HDD (again, maybe push for external, but let you also save stuff on your PCs and so you can send it via your home network)
AMD GPU
8core/16thread AMD Ryzen 2 based CPU (4 cores for OS/apps)
16GB GDDR6, 4GB of DDR4 memory for OS/apps
~9TF
They might do a big change, calling it a Surface X (or Surface Xbox or something) and Xbox will be the name for the service.
$499

Then there will be the streaming box (Surface Stream?):
4core/8thread Ryzen 2 based CPU
~PS4 Pro level GPU
8GB memory (DDR4 or low power GDDR), no optical drive
128GB SSD
$299

Xbox One and One X are discontinued, but can install the streaming service on them and use them that way.

Then 2022 we get PS5 Pro
Optional UHD Blu-ray drive
1TB SSD
AMD GPU
8core/16thread AMD Ryzen 3 based CPU (4 cores reserved for OS/apps)
16GB GDDR6
~10TF
$499
PS5 goes to $249
They release a Playstation TV like device that does streaming stuff.
4K PSVR headset

We don't see a new version of the One X (Microsoft instead migrates to focusing on streaming, so they update the Streaming box every so often, after ~5 years it matches the last Xbox; they come out with an Xbox tier system that tells you easily what level of games different systems can play)

Somewhere in there we get a new Sony portable:
Sony Android tablet
ARM CPUs with a strong GPU (maybe Nvidia?)
Good specs (8GB RAM, 128GB storage)
Magnetic controllers that clip onto the ends like the Switch's
Will work standalone (with dock at home) like Switch, but also can be paired with PS5 to work like Wii U
Also will make a device with same SoC into a standalone PSVR/AR headset.

Or maybe Microsoft does that with a Windows tablet, maybe they just make a Surface tablet and the controller and dock are Xbox branded.

 

[purbeast0]

I used to care about cross play but at this point I don't give a shit. I've seen how it completely hindered Street Fighter V's online netcode as part of it. It also has to do with Capcom being Capcom, but cross play did not help. I also don't really care if the pool of players I'm going against is 1 million or 2 million people, either way I'm going to have plenty of people to play against.

With what Sony has invested into PSVR though I think a new version on their next console is definitely going to happen, and they better give it better resolution (I'm sure they will).

 

[cmdrdredd]

I used to care about cross play but at this point I don't give a shit. I've seen how it completely hindered Street Fighter V's online netcode as part of it. It also has to do with Capcom being Capcom, but cross play did not help. I also don't really care if the pool of players I'm going against is 1 million or 2 million people, either way I'm going to have plenty of people to play against.

With what Sony has invested into PSVR though I think a new version on their next console is definitely going to happen, and they better give it better resolution (I'm sure they will).

You think it sold enough and was popular enough for that? My only experience with it was a demo at Best Buy and I didn’t like the demos they had (felt slow when I moved) so I wrote it off for my personal use.

 

[purbeast0]

You think it sold enough and was popular enough for that? My only experience with it was a demo at Best Buy and I didn’t like the demos they had (felt slow when I moved) so I wrote it off for my personal use.

Yeah SF5 sold that much I believe. This was from last year when they hit 1.9 million and I believe that was without digital sales.

https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2017...s-another-200000-copies-total-now-19-million/

But I wasn't talking about SF5 with that example, I'm talking about games in general.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Yeah SF5 sold that much I believe. This was from last year when they hit 1.9 million and I believe that was without digital sales.

https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2017...s-another-200000-copies-total-now-19-million/

But I wasn't talking about SF5 with that example, I'm talking about games in general.

I meant PSVR, like you think they will continue to develop the hardware and release future versions along with actual console development? I didn't think it did well enough.

 

[purbeast0]

I meant PSVR, like you think they will continue to develop the hardware and release future versions along with actual console development? I didn't think it did well enough.

Oh LOL thought you meant SF5.

Sony is pushing PSVR big time and it's been doing pretty well since they had all of those big sales when v2 came out. I'm not sure what you meant about it being slow though but also don't know what demo's you tried. Games like RE7 and Farpoint and Moss are ridiculous IMO and reasons to buy it. Now granted Moss is on PCVR now too (not sure bout RE7 though).

 

[cmdrdredd]

What I mean by slow is I can move my head faster than it reacts causing it to feel very odd.

 

[purbeast0]

What I mean by slow is I can move my head faster than it reacts causing it to feel very odd.

Yeah then you were using a defective unit. I've never experienced that.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Yeah then you were using a defective unit. I've never experienced that.

I think it was the low frame rate more than anything.

 

[NTMBK]

I really want to see a handheld version of the original XBox One. You could get the same memory bandwidth from a 128-bit LPDDR4X/LPDDR5 bus (LPDDR4X is already up to 4266Mb/s), the ESRAM will scale nicely down to 7nm, and 12 compute units running at ~800MHz doesn't sound that power hungry on 7nm. Plus they could use the same design for a super small low-power no-disc-drive box to go under the TV.

 

[purbeast0]

Just saw this, so it appears PSVR is doing pretty well.

https://blog.us.playstation.com/2018/08/16/celebrating-3-million-ps-vr-systems-sold/

 

[Skel]

Just saw this, so it appears PSVR is doing pretty well.

https://blog.us.playstation.com/2018/08/16/celebrating-3-million-ps-vr-systems-sold/

Not sure I'd agree.. the Kinect sold 24 million, and this was on the 360.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Not sure I'd agree.. the Kinect sold 24 million, and this was on the 360.

What does Kinect have to do with psvr?

Nothing that’s what. You are comparing a device that sold for $99 and was also bundled with the console to a device that is completely separate and retails for $400. I think 3million is a nice number and looks better than Microsoft claiming 24million Kinect sales when 80%+ of those were in bundles and the ones that were not, sold for 1/4 the cost of the psvr system.

 

[Skel]

What does Kinect have to do with psvr?

Nothing that’s what. You are comparing a device that sold for $99 and was also bundled with the console to a device that is completely separate and retails for $400. I think 3million is a nice number and looks better than Microsoft claiming 24million Kinect sales when 80%+ of those were in bundles and the ones that were not, sold for 1/4 the cost of the psvr system.

I, probably wrongly, had it in my head that this was his way of saying that because PSVR was selling that many units it would be part of the next system that Sony puts out. I got that from the other posts on the subject in this thread. I was (admittedly very badly.. never post before waking up fully) pointing out the sales of the kinect as it sold quite a bit more and it became a rally cry of things people felt were forced upon them. If you read the article, it was before the Xbox One came out and was forced upon users. Sony would be foolish to attempt the same thing by bundling it as part of whatever next PS comes out.

While I admit I went about it very badly, the Kinect does have a lot to do with psvr in this topic..

 

[purbeast0]

Kinect is not really comparable other than they were peripherals. The comparison pretty much stops there.

I don't know of a list, but I'd wager that there are WWWWAAAYYYYY more PSVR games than there are games that require Kinect. Like by a ridiculous amount. And many of these games are games designed from the ground up for PSVR. I don't even know if there was one game designed for the Kinect from the ground up (I'm sure there is I just can't think of any), that could only be played with the Kinect.

But my point was that Sony has basically gone all in with PSVR on PS4 and it's doing very well, and that due to that, I feel PSVR will be on PS5 and will be more powerful with higher resolution.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Kinect is not really comparable other than they were peripherals. The comparison pretty much stops there.

I don't know of a list, but I'd wager that there are WWWWAAAYYYYY more PSVR games than there are games that require Kinect. Like by a ridiculous amount. And many of these games are games designed from the ground up for PSVR. I don't even know if there was one game designed for the Kinect from the ground up (I'm sure there is I just can't think of any), that could only be played with the Kinect.

But my point was that Sony has basically gone all in with PSVR on PS4 and it's doing very well, and that due to that, I feel PSVR will be on PS5 and will be more powerful with higher resolution.

That is partly because of how the indie scene has become and the ease of self publishing games. Everyone is trying to get in on the next big hit and VR being a new and trendy thing at the time(maybe still is?) a lot of small developers tried to come up with games using it. Not a bad thing I guess but I am certain there is a good amount of shovel ware out there.

 

[ultimatebob]

Predictions:

Launch: Q3 2019 - Q3 2020

- 8C/16T AMD Zen/Navi derivative APU
- Native 4K 60 fps with Freesync support
- PS VR 2 Support
- 16 GB GDDR6
- 2 TB SSD (not a good one, but faster than the ole HDD)
- 4K Ultra HD Player
- Select PS4/XB1 titles backward compatible
- One slightly modified controller included

$400 - $500

Different product tiers could obviously be differentiated by bundles, different storage capacities/formats, etc.

I don't think that 2 TB of SSD storage will be cheap enough to put in a console by the end of next year. I could see them doing a 2 TB hybrid HDD with 64 GB of flash cache, though.

I'm also thinking that they'll do away with an optical drive on this console for the size savings, and start shipping games on something like a USB flash drive or an SD card.

 

[Skel]

I don't think that 2 TB of SSD storage will be cheap enough to put in a console by the end of next year. I could see them doing a 2 TB hybrid HDD with 64 GB of flash cache, though.

I'm also thinking that they'll do away with an optical drive on this console for the size savings, and start shipping games on something like a USB flash drive or an SD card.

I personally think they'll drop the optical drive either this gen or next, but they'll go streaming. I can't see them going to anything other than a disk we already use. The cost on the machine may drop, but the cost to produce the games in physical format would go through the roof. A disk is what? A few cents? I can't see them getting a cartridge type system getting anywhere near that cost.

 

[zerocool84]

Why would anyone think when new consoles come out there wouldn't be an optical drive in them? Not everyone lives in large population area with great internet. The discs are WAY cheaper than physical media like memory cards, SD cards, etc. If they did that they would lose a huge amount of potential sales in lower income area and other countries without decent internet service.

 

[Skel]

Why would anyone think when new consoles come out there wouldn't be an optical drive in them? Not everyone lives in large population area with great internet. The discs are WAY cheaper than physical media like memory cards, SD cards, etc. If they did that they would lose a huge amount of potential sales in lower income area and other countries without decent internet service.

In 2017 74% of sales were digital. While I'm not sure what the current numbers are, I would believe that this trend is still going that way. The retail footprint of games is expensive and from what I've seen is shrinking. While it might take another generation, I've no doubt the drive will be toast. I agree with you that it'll be the last physical media that we see, as it is cheaper than cartridges and whatnot, I can't see the console staying with a piece of older tech when the rest of the world is moving on. I was at the MS store last week and I don't think I saw a optical drive on any of the laptops they had out. I haven't seen one on any of my laptops from work in the past few years.

 

[purbeast0]

In 2017 74% of sales were digital. While I'm not sure what the current numbers are, I would believe that this trend is still going that way. The retail footprint of games is expensive and from what I've seen is shrinking. While it might take another generation, I've no doubt the drive will be toast. I agree with you that it'll be the last physical media that we see, as it is cheaper than cartridges and whatnot, I can't see the console staying with a piece of older tech when the rest of the world is moving on. I was at the MS store last week and I don't think I saw a optical drive on any of the laptops they had out. I haven't seen one on any of my laptops from work in the past few years.

That number is COMPLETELY misleading in the way you are trying to point it.

That 74% number includes Xbox Live and PS+ subscriptions, DLC, and PC games. Those are things you don't even have the option to purchase physically.

I know people who purchased Street Fighter 5 and have made like 10+ DLC purchases. That would make 10 out of 11 "video game purchases" according to the stat above be digital. It has no bearing on physical vs. digital games.

The only real number that would matter is full game sales digital compared to physical, at retail price too. I know a lot of people, myself included, who will buy some games digitally if they are dirt cheap compared to the physical counterpart.

EDIT:

That number even includes MOBILE video games. I'd almost argue that number proves that physical sales are pretty damn high.

 

[Skel]

That number is COMPLETELY misleading in the way you are trying to point it.

That 74% number includes Xbox Live and PS+ subscriptions, DLC, and PC games. Those are things you don't even have the option to purchase physically.

I know people who purchased Street Fighter 5 and have made like 10+ DLC purchases. That would make 10 out of 11 "video game purchases" according to the stat above be digital. It has no bearing on physical vs. digital games.

The only real number that would matter is full game sales digital compared to physical, at retail price too. I know a lot of people, myself included, who will buy some games digitally if they are dirt cheap compared to the physical counterpart.

EDIT:

That number even includes MOBILE video games. I'd almost argue that number proves that physical sales are pretty damn high.

Is this the part where no matter what link is put out, or what logic is used, it'll be trumped with "My friends and I buy physical copies therefore you're wrong?"

What other industry still uses physical media like this (even the physical copy of MS Office is just a download key)? Why do the companies like MS and Sony put so much into their digital marketplace? At best you'll see the cards for digital downloads you find at Gamestop (which every article I saw on it's closing referenced digital downloads hurting their business.). You really think that consoles will somehow be the only thing that still uses disks? When the first thing I've seen on every game I've installed is the stupid thing going out on the internet and updating itself?

It may not happen this next generation, but I can't understand why people think it'll always be there. There's just too much money for Sony and MS if they control the distribution.. not to mention disks are a dying tech.

 

[purbeast0]

Is this the part where no matter what link is put out, or what logic is used, it'll be trumped with "My friends and I buy physical copies therefore you're wrong?"

What other industry still uses physical media like this (even the physical copy of MS Office is just a download key)? Why do the companies like MS and Sony put so much into their digital marketplace? At best you'll see the cards for digital downloads you find at Gamestop (which every article I saw on it's closing referenced digital downloads hurting their business.). You really think that consoles will somehow be the only thing that still uses disks? When the first thing I've seen on every game I've installed is the stupid thing going out on the internet and updating itself?

It may not happen this next generation, but I can't understand why people think it'll always be there. There's just too much money for Sony and MS if they control the distribution.. not to mention disks are a dying tech.

Where did I say it will never happen? All I said is that your 74% number isn't even close to what you are trying to argue it is. Nice rebuttal though that had nothing to do with what I posted.

What other industry uses discs like this? How about the movie industry.