Xi Backs Down on Taiwan?

[Perknose]

"China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war

[...]

Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo."

^^^ This is good news as far as it goes. But personally, I wouldn't trust Xi as far as I could spit. Those CCP fuckers play the long game. I believe that at some point, Xi or his successor will try to coerce Taiwan into submission with a naval blockade, but only when they feel they have the upper hand.

FT subscriber only link.

 

[sdifox]

PRC has been threatening to invade since 1949.

 

[soulcougher73]

PRC has been threatening to invade since 1949.

little boy who cried wolf.

 

[uclaLabrat]

"China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war

[...]

Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo."

^^^ This is good news as far as it goes. But personally, I wouldn't trust Xi as far as I could spit. Those CCP fuckers play the long game. I believe that at some point, Xi or his successor will try to coerce Taiwan into submission with a naval blockade, but only when they feel they have the upper hand.

FT subscriber only link.

Given their pending demographic and economic woes, the time for them to strike really is now, or in the very near future with a window that is likely shrinking.

Shitty timing for them that putin has caused a mini western mobilization in terms of materiel production, so western (and especially US) response would likely be more robust than 3 years ago.

 

[Moonbeam]

Given their pending demographic and economic woes, the time for them to strike really is now, or in the very near future with a window that is likely shrinking.

Shitty timing for them that putin has caused a mini western mobilization in terms of materiel production, so western (and especially US) response would likely be more robust than 3 years ago.

It's always possible, however, that they won't pay any attention to your advise.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Given their pending demographic and economic woes, the time for them to strike really is now, or in the very near future with a window that is likely shrinking.

Shitty timing for them that putin has caused a mini western mobilization in terms of materiel production, so western (and especially US) response would likely be more robust than 3 years ago.

They've got some great intel out of it, and they didn't have to sacrifice a few million troops to learn it. Whenever they decide to take Taiwan, they'll know exactly what not to do.

 

[kage69]

Goading? lol

That's pretty funny given the stream of saber rattling Beijing has been making since 2013.

Someone got an earful from the G7. Things are bad in China. G7 can make them a lot worse.

 

[Ajay]

But personally, I wouldn't trust Xi as far as I could spit.

Times 10!

 

[kage69]

The US has got some nerve making Xi send those air and naval assets across the median line and around Taiwan. Again.

"Recent developments in the Taiwan Strait have drawn significant attention from global military analysts. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taiwan has reported the movement of 23 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels in the vicinity of the island nation. This activity was observed between 6 a.m. on June 12 and 6 a.m. on June 13."

Probably still a little butthurt from Taiwanese voters telling him to shut his bao hole too.

Give it up Pooh Bear.

 

[Moonbeam]

The US has got some nerve making Xi send those air and naval assets across the median line and around Taiwan. Again.

"Recent developments in the Taiwan Strait have drawn significant attention from global military analysts. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taiwan has reported the movement of 23 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels in the vicinity of the island nation. This activity was observed between 6 a.m. on June 12 and 6 a.m. on June 13."

Probably still a little butthurt from Taiwanese voters telling him to shut his bao hole too.

Give it up Pooh Bear.

My guess, self identification being such an interesting problem that creates so many other hideous issues, is that the programming we receive as children accounts for all this stupidity. Clearly the way all human beings come into the world is practically genetically identically in the very same way, in other words human like everyone else. So how on earth were we all programmed to feel differently when it is such an obvious lie. Perhaps there was implanted some how and somewhere an emotional need to feel different and we pass it along to our children.

I only want to thank the heavens that whatever the cause may be, in my case and in my case alone, everything about me was created as maximally superior.

 

[kage69]

You don't have to guess in this case. The problem is Chinese nationalism.

Taiwan sees what the CCP has done to Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. It's not about appearing superior, it's about self-determination and being left the hell alone, ultimately not having to live a lower standard of living under an oppressive authoritarian regime - which would only happen after the executions and 're education camps' phase.

That's the hideous issue that overrides all other interesting problems for Taipei.

 

[K1052]

Xi trying to project their bellicose attitude on to the US aside seems like a pretty good sign that he has enormous reservations about undertaking such an effort. Probably a combination of the risks (huge military and economic ones) and the many pressing domestic issues they face which could explode if the country goes to war. This view of course could always change.

Not hard to imagine him looking at Russia-Ukraine and thinking there is a good chance it could go badly sideways.

 

[akugami]

Make no mistake, while some consider it sabre rattling, there just hasn't been a time and place where the calculus weighs in favor of them invading. If they ever decide that the pros outweigh the cons, they will invade. I have no doubt of that. Much like Osama bin Laden, the actions of the west created modern day China. One must be vigilant against their brand of authoritarianism, while understanding that the general populace has very little say in what the CCP does.

As someone who is of Chinese descent, I still have extended relatives on the mothership. I have reports of chat groups on WeChat, and online forums, that get shut down discussing what seems like innocuous subjects to us. Things were opening up under previous president Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, but Xi Jinping has been absolutely horrifying for personal freedom in China. Similar to how Russia was becoming more free until Putin.

 

[Indus]

Make no mistake, while some consider it sabre rattling, there just hasn't been a time and place where the calculus weighs in favor of them invading. If they ever decide that the pros outweigh the cons, they will invade. I have no doubt of that. Much like Osama bin Laden, the actions of the west created modern day China. One must be vigilant against their brand of authoritarianism, while understanding that the general populace has very little say in what the CCP does.

As someone who is of Chinese descent, I still have extended relatives on the mothership. I have reports of chat groups on WeChat, and online forums, that get shut down discussing what seems like innocuous subjects to us. Things were opening up under previous president Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, but Xi Jinping has been absolutely horrifying for personal freedom in China. Similar to how Russia was becoming more free until Putin.

Is the "bai lan" thing real btw?

People jaded so much with their prospects in life, they don't even wanna try anymore?

 

[BoomerD]

I blame Richard Nixon for modern China.

 

[akugami]

Is the "bai lan" thing real btw?

People jaded so much with their prospects in life, they don't even wanna try anymore?

I honestly wasn't that familiar with that term. The extended relatives I deal with are struggling, but they are fighting. I would say that it's very possible that many are so jaded that they have no expectations of a better life. Paperwork got screwed up with the wife's brothers, and we had to redo it all over again. And it's pretty much a 10-14 year process for sponsorship. Many people desperately want out. While there were Chinese illegal immigrants before, the fact that it is increasing by a magnitude in the last decade or so tells you all you need to know about Xi's regime.

I think it should be obvious that my email for official government business, both in the US and for applying for a travel visa to Asian countries, is nowhere similar to my online handle and email that I use for forums like this. Not just for general Internet security's sake, but for protection of any extended relatives in China. It's that crazy in terms of how paranoid you have to be, even if you're not a Chinese citizen but have relatives in China.

 

[akugami]

I blame Richard Nixon for modern China.

When I speak of modern China, I mean communist China. Not Imperial China, which lasted for 2000 years even though the ruling family changed hands quite frequently. I am by no means a Chinese historian. I was born in a country, not China, and my earliest memories are from the USA. I even have relatives who live in, and are full participating citizens of, Redneckistan USA.

 

[manly]

Make no mistake, while some consider it sabre rattling, there just hasn't been a time and place where the calculus weighs in favor of them invading. If they ever decide that the pros outweigh the cons, they will invade. I have no doubt of that. Much like Osama bin Laden, the actions of the west created modern day China. One must be vigilant against their brand of authoritarianism, while understanding that the general populace has very little say in what the CCP does.

As someone who is of Chinese descent, I still have extended relatives on the mothership. I have reports of chat groups on WeChat, and online forums, that get shut down discussing what seems like innocuous subjects to us. Things were opening up under previous president Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, but Xi Jinping has been absolutely horrifying for personal freedom in China. Similar to how Russia was becoming more free until Putin.

I'm no expert, but I don't think China really minds the status quo. What they would mind is if Taiwan unilaterally declared independence.

Xi is a dictator, and like most of that ilk, he's got to be incredibly paranoid about maintaining total control. So yeah much to lose by invading Taiwan, but not a whole lot to gain tbh. And with their demographic problems looming, many have argued they have a very narrow window to invade before it's too late. I don't really buy that myself, but obviously much of the calculus depends on how certain everyone is that the U.S. will defend Taiwan at all costs.

 

[cytg111]

You don't have to guess in this case. The problem is Chinese nationalism.

Taiwan sees what the CCP has done to Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. It's not about appearing superior, it's about self-determination and being left the hell alone, ultimately not having to live a lower standard of living under an oppressive authoritarian regime - which would only happen after the executions and 're education camps' phase.

That's the hideous issue that overrides all other interesting problems for Taipei.

Not trying to counter your argument just doing a side-channel observation, redundant in nature cause we all know it to be true, that nationalism is indeed creeping all over the planet. The US. Europe. China. India. So on and so forth.
In fact Chinas problem looks a lot like Americas problem if you ask me. State media apparatus blasting nationalist propaganda into folks brains.

I consider Fox, Newsmax, OANN etc to be state media. Change my opinion? .

 

[sdifox]

Not trying to counter your argument just doing a side-channel observation, redundant in nature cause we all know it to be true, that nationalism is indeed creeping all over the planet. The US. Europe. China. India. So on and so forth.
In fact Chinas problem looks a lot like Americas problem if you ask me. State media apparatus blasting nationalist propaganda into folks brains.

I consider Fox, Newsmax, OANN etc to be state media. Change my opinion? .

The are not nationalist per se. They are side effects of capitalism. The rich want to keep what they got and are willing to pay for propaganda machines.

 

[cytg111]

The are not nationalist per se. They are side effects of capitalism. The rich want to keep what they got and are willing to pay for propaganda machines.

I know. But suppose you were not an American and you took your chopper another 1000 meters up. What's the difference?

 

[darkswordsman17]

Isn't this the exact same shit that Russia claimed? I'd say that's worrying.

And basically everyone else. Remember Iraq 2003? Seems to be the modern playbook. Start saying someone is trying to goad you into war, so you just had to go to war.

 

[kage69]

Not trying to counter your argument just doing a side-channel observation, redundant in nature cause we all know it to be true, that nationalism is indeed creeping all over the planet. The US. Europe. China. India. So on and so forth.
In fact Chinas problem looks a lot like Americas problem if you ask me. State media apparatus blasting nationalist propaganda into folks brains.

I consider Fox, Newsmax, OANN etc to be state media. Change my opinion? .

There is no free speech or free judiciary in China. A pretty big difference off the bat when it comes to political freedom and nationalism. China's sole political party controls it's own military, one currently on an expansionist agenda towards multiple countries at the same time. There is simply no analog to the political situation in China here in the States. The country is run by a single guy with an iron fist who does not care about other people's ideas, he's not even a fan of actual history so the entire country has to 'learn' his special version of Chinese and world history. State media there is consolidated, it doesn't have separate special interests and doesn't argue with itself like the right wing echo chamber does here in the States.

Look at the police state and social credit score bullshit. Nationalism is a problem in many places, but thankfully there are many areas in which the US isn't even a weak analog for it. China ranks second only to North Korea on that scale I'm afraid. The US has it's problems, but you don't see us setting up re education and forced labor camps for an entire ethnic group, right?

Strait up Nazi shit, even down to making movies about this and trying to sell the narrative these folks are better imprisoned than at home; they're having fun, acquiring new skills blah blah blah. In reality these people are tortured if they don't speak Mandarin, work, or comply with the CCPs social engineering efforts. Lots of torture. Widespread sterilization of women. MSS agents put in civilian houses to replace imprisoned fathers.

It's no contest.

 

[Ajay]

Much like Osama bin Laden, the actions of the west created modern day China. One must be vigilant against their brand of authoritarianism, while understanding that the general populace has very little say in what the CCP does.

No, we are not responsible for the actions of some rich spoiled kid from Saudi Arabia who decided to launch a terror war against the US and it’s allies. If you need to blame something wrt Osama, blame Wahhabism.

We also didn’t create modern China - the Chinese did. What did we do? Help them become part of the WTO. Mao, and his freaking lunatic communist brutes helped create modern China - and their party continued their Marxist-Leninist fever dream forward. Xi is a ruthless bastard who is responsible for destroying relations with the west and implementing a crushing regime of brutality against the Chinese people. Yes, we were seeing better leadership b/4 Xi. What might have been….

 

[kage69]

No, we are not responsible for the actions of some rich spoiled kid from Saudi Arabia who decided to launch a terror war against the US and it’s allies. If you need to blame something wrt Osama, blame Wahhabism.

We also didn’t create modern China - the Chinese did. What did we do? Help them become part of the WTO. Mao, and his freaking lunatic communist brutes helped create modern China - and their party continued their Marxist-Leninist fever dream forward. Xi is a ruthless bastard who is responsible for destroying relations with the west and implementing a crushing regime of brutality against the Chinese people. Yes, we were seeing better leadership b/4 Xi. What might have been….

I disagree, with regret. This goes back a lot farther than 2001. China got carved up in the 19th century, bad, was held down by a variety of boots, European and American. We kept them stoned and divided, played factions against each other. Personally I think when you go through something like the horror of Nanking it's impossible for views on foreigners not to worsen. Some of the affronts to China weren't losses of life, but rather of face. Our Navy seized one of their ships suspected of transporting chemicals to Ghaddafi, back in the 90s. We ended up letting it go, but the delay and how the Navy acted was seen as a huge insult. Then there what was called the Third Strait Crisis, when Clinton sent a carrier group to Taiwan to shut down a largescale intimidation effort by the Chinese. That one in particular made the old school PLA brass really go berserk. They still cite it as one of the reasons they need "a military that can win wars." Many of them have advocated giving the US "a bloody nose" since then.

Modern China is the product of many things: war, subjugation, cultural unity, the lasting influence of Confucianism, starvation, authoritarianism, and the writings of political theorist/proud Nazi Carl Schmitt. A whole other thread in other words.