Wow, very informed and informative posts from HumblePie. Thank you for putting the info out there.
I haven't personally bothered to look into terminal ballistics, but I have listened to a few experts I trust, and everything you just posted is congruent with their rules of thumb.
- With all pistol calibers, no matter what the caliber, you need to hit something vital to get an immediate stop.
- Increasing the caliber does basically nothing to your chances of a given shot hitting something vital, but an additional shot almost doubles those chances.
- Ergo, 9mm is an obvious choice. No less effective, easier to train for, cheaper, allows for lighter and more compact guns or more capacity.
Not to say that other calibers are somehow terrible. Rather, training >>>>> equipment.
Exactly. Shot placement is the most important. People have been easily killed with a .22lr with proper shot placement. People have been "dropped" with a single shot of .22lr straight away dead. It's not unheard of or impossible. But the damage a .22lr will cause into a less vital spot of the body isn't going to be nearly the same as any .380 or above pistol caliber. Which is why it's not that great of a defensive round overall. But a .22lr does allow for very rapid and very accurate follow on shots. So in the right hands, even a .22lr is very fatal for self defense.
Actually, here is a website with charts listed for various guns used in self defense situations and their lethality. Data comes from records found of shootings in news, police reports, and other public sources.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/7866
In the site it shows that out of the ammo used for handgun ammo, the most popular is 9mm. But the most "lethal" is .22lr. Meaning when a .22lr pistol was used, the chances of kill the target with a successful hit to a vital spot was higher.
But when multiple rounds are used, the picture changes. It takes a bit more rounds from .22lr to incapacitate than a 9mm. Even .45 acp is less than 9mm for multiple shots.
.45 acp has even a greater failure to incapacitate than 9mm over all with either one shot or multiple shot scenarios.
Granted, the charts and data presented are the most inclusive of all data. And it is more a "study" than a full scientific experiment, but good trends can still be taken from it.
This site expresses the opinion of the data and charts from that previous site. Pretty much the same conclusion.
http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2012/06/foghorn/ask-foghorn-22l-for-self-defense/
If you want to stop someone use a shotgun. It's going to be the most lethal. If you are using a handgun and are very accurate with the ability to maintain absolute calm in a crisis, then a .22lr might actually be a damn good round for you.
For most people a 9mm or a .357 is going to be the better choice. The 9mm might have less "incap" potential by those charts with the initial shot, but that's because of how popular the caliber is. Meaning many people use that caliber, especially novices. A novice shooter in a defensive situation is not going to have the best shot placement with the initial shot. It speaks to such in those charts. The other calibers, besides .38 special, are typically not considered "novice' calibers. Meaning most people buying their first gun are going to buy a 9mm. If they are a novice they are going shoot badly with that first shot. What is telling is that in scenario's requiring multiple shots to take someone down, the 9mm is then the most lethal of all pistol calibers. Again, this is due to the zeroing in effect and light recoil of the caliber. Allowing for more accurate and better follow on shots. Even novices after the first shot can place better and faster follow on shots with the 9mm.
Those are the trends that the data from those sites show.
Other rounds are FINE rounds and can get the job done. Even .22lr. But if looked at from an completely objective angle...
9mm is the most proliferate round. In a SHTF scenario finding ammo and guns in this caliber for pistols is going to be easiest.
Under normal market conditions, 9mm is the cheapest to train with.
9mm makes just a big a hole as any other modern defensive pistol hollow point round. The differences in the damage caused between calibers from .380 to .45 is really negligible.
The recoil from 9mm is considerably lighter than some other pistol caliber ammo. Making follow on shots more accurate and at a higher firing rate.
9mm guns typically hold far more ammo in flush fit magazines for the available handguns out there. Especially when considering compact or subcompact guns that are easy to conceal and carry.
There is a reason 9mm the world over is primary defensive round of choice. It works for the vast majority of situations out there. As a caliber that is very popular the world over, in a SHTF scenario where you find yourself in a different country for whatever reason, again 9mm is going to be much easier to scrounge for.