Ze First Debate

[Moonbeam]

That's a very big question with a very small answer: greed.

I agree but clearly you need to maintain infrastructure at some point take running water for example. Kind of hard to go to a well for it is you like a hundred stories above the water table. I am wondering since there seems to be cost efficiencies in concentrating infrastructure needs geographically, you wouldn’t run city water out to a farm miles and miles away when you can provide water for many many locals for the same cost. At the same time providing well water etc at a home in the country can be rather easily maintained over say, fixing a city plumbed by lead pipes. So I am wondering if what you call greed and it’s inevitability in certain kinds of political systems would not pose problems financing increased density. Who would finance a castle in a geological location marked quick sand?

I just don’t know if this has anything to do with the discussion here because my understanding is limited. Not sure I grasp what is being said.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I agree but clearly you need to maintain infrastructure at some point take running water for example. Kind of hard to go to a well for it is you like a hundred stories above the water table. I am wondering since there seems to be cost efficiencies in concentrating infrastructure needs geographically, you wouldn’t run city water out to a farm miles and miles away when you can provide water for many many locals for the same cost. At the same time providing well water etc at a home in the country can be rather easily maintained over say, fixing a city plumbed by lead pipes. So I am wondering if what you call greed and it’s inevitability in certain kinds of political systems would not pose problems financing increased density. Who would finance a castle in a geological location marked quick sand?

I just don’t know if this has anything to do with the discussion here because my understanding is limited. Not sure I grasp what is being said.

You aren't far off and several of your ideas have been used in the past. Your idea of moving water from areas where it's freely available to where it isn't has had it's place in humanity since the dawn of civilization, via aqueducts. Most of NYCs problems are 'last mile' though from my understanding. Inordinate amounts of effort and money have been spent getting it to where it is, and now there's a relatively small number of people profiting from it's deterioration. Likely hoping the wheels of their particular machine stay attached until they aren't holding the hot potato anymore. Note: this is also a tale as old as civilization.

Eventually a lot of the last mile bits will get ripped out and replaced en masse rather than maintained properly, and it'll be a right shit show instead of a steady stream.

 

[manly]

Apologies in advance for veering off topic, but this actually happened at the Sao Paulo mayoral debate!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/16/americas/sao-paulo-mayoral-debate-chair-attack-intl-latam/index.html

 

[akugami]

You can disagree all you want, but the facts don't support it. Specially since buying, selling, investing in real estate has been going on for decades.. nothing has changed in that respect,. which puts your argument flat on it's face. Do you even understand why the housing market exploded after the pandemic which caused houses prices to sky rocket? Low interest rates, combined with lack of supply. We are currenlty short 6 million single family houses to meet demand currently across this country. We don't have enough skilled workers as it is to keep up with demand, so that number increases every year. We haven't been able to keep up with demand for over a decade. When interest rates dropped to the lowest they have every been, it amplfied that supply problem because people who couldn't afford a house, where able to, which created more competitition, driving up prices. But this also highlights the other issue, and that is income/wages, as you so eligantly demonstrated in your example, not realizing it. Wages hasn't kept up with inflation since Reagan, for the most part wages have been stagnet for decades.

Don't forget corporations like Zillow and Redfin, which were supposed to be only assisting with house sales were buying up houses. Further reducing availability. Which leads to rising prices.

 

[NWRMidnight]

^ Real estate investor.

Remove the profit motive and tax incentives from real estate and we will have a housing glut we have not seen since the foreclosure crisis of 2009 to 2012.

It starts with outlawing AirBNB.

1) I own one piece of real estate, my house.

2) How does your suggested tax changes, build 6 million homes, add trade skilled workers to build such homes, change zoning laws to facilitate construction, and meet demand and create a glut of houses? You do understand where the demand comes from right?

3) What caused the forclosures of 2007 to 2010 (you can't even get the dates right)? If you are honest about the answer, you will find that it also disproves your theory about real estate investors.

4) If you outlaw AirBNB, then you have to out law rentals all together, including motels, hotels. So much for free enterprise. Of course, such a move won't help housing prices.. (see point #2)

5) what will happens to the people that depend on being able to rent a house? Do you even understand why many people rent, even though they could buy a house?

6) Why is there a push to build multifamily housing, more so than single family housing if it's a real estate investment problem?

7) more people own their homes today than ever before, (65%). How is that possible if the cost of housing/house prices is due to real estate investors?


Nothing you suggest will help the housing shortage and housing costs, because it doesn't do anything to fix what is causing the problem.

 

[Moonbeam]

You aren't far off and several of your ideas have been used in the past. Your idea of moving water from areas where it's freely available to where it isn't has had it's place in humanity since the dawn of civilization, via aqueducts. Most of NYCs problems are 'last mile' though from my understanding. Inordinate amounts of effort and money have been spent getting it to where it is, and now there's a relatively small number of people profiting from it's deterioration. Likely hoping the wheels of their particular machine stay attached until they aren't holding the hot potato anymore. Note: this is also a tale as old as civilization.

Eventually a lot of the last mile bits will get ripped out and replaced en masse rather than maintained properly, and it'll be a right shit show instead of a steady stream.

I am well aware of that. What went through my mind with NYC was the Tower of Babble where even the knowledge of how to maintain the system can get lost. I remember as a young man of now forgotten age I read a short story called the, I think, The Marching Morons by Kornbluth, in which a few million geniuses are all that is left to maintain a complex civilization of billions of people.

What I am not sure about is whether you are seeking to argue something or just supporting aspects of what I was saying. I'm not trying to make a point. I was trying to contextualize a question.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I am well aware of that. What went through my mind with NYC was the Tower of Babble where even the knowledge of how to maintain the system can get lost. I remember as a young man of now forgotten age I read a short story called the, I think, The Marching Morons by Kornbluth, in which a few million geniuses are all that is left to maintain a complex civilization of billions of people.

What I am not sure about is whether you are seeking to argue something or just supporting aspects of what I was saying. I'm not trying to make a point. I was trying to contextualize a question.

Supporting you, and answering what I thought was a question (my bad if it wasn't). Relevant to this, I remember an anime from my youth that had a really interesting premise from what I remember (I'm sure some nerd here will correct me) where the immediately after a catastrophe, entirety of civilization forgets everything except basics (how to talk, how to eat, etc), so nobody has any past, nobody knows how to do anything complex, they have everything a modern society has but no ability to either recreate it, or, to an extent, even make use of it. Big O.

No idea how it ends, as a) I haven't lived long enough to see it in this reality, and b) I was beholden to broadcast network timing as a child.

 

[akugami]

Supporting you, and answering what I thought was a question (my bad if it wasn't). Relevant to this, I remember an anime from my youth that had a really interesting premise from what I remember (I'm sure some nerd here will correct me) where the immediately after a catastrophe, entirety of civilization forgets everything except basics (how to talk, how to eat, etc), so nobody has any past, nobody knows how to do anything complex, they have everything a modern society has but no ability to either recreate it, or, to an extent, even make use of it. Big O.

No idea how it ends, as a) I haven't lived long enough to see it in this reality, and b) I was beholden to broadcast network timing as a child.

Think I might know the anime, A Wind Named Amnesia?

 

[NWRMidnight]

Don't forget corporations like Zillow and Redfin, which were supposed to be only assisting with house sales were buying up houses. Further reducing availability. Which leads to rising prices.

The only way such a move reduced availability is if they didn't put them back on the market, and just held on to them. Which is not the case. What they did do, is buy them, and flip them. A normal practice that has been going on longer than I have been alive (55 years). Even if they held on to them and just rented them out, it would have little effect on housing prices as it doesn't do anything to offset the cause, which is lack of supply.

Lack of supply is also the major driving force behind high rent prices as well, and a major contributer to homelessness.

Heck, when I was in my twenties,, I had to have 3 room mates just so I could afford to live on my own. The same problem exists today, but even worse. It's all tied to supply/income deficiencies.

 

[Muse]

Another is Rick Wilson (also Lincoln Project cofounder). On August 18, 2024 I downloaded a Tiktok video he did excoriating Trump (I have it as an MP4 file) in a way that I figure would make Steve Schmidt blush. I went looking for it a few days ago, wanted to post a link here but couldn't find it. I think it was accessible from a reddit thread. There are a bunch of Rick Wilson's Tiktok videos on Trump you can see if you search, but maybe not that one unless you're lucky. He was responding to a Trump team cease and desist order. He just dared Trump to go through with prosecuting, said he would destroy him in court and that Trump knows it and doesn't dare.

I found that Rick Wilson Tiktok bit, this is intense!

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7404373767738215722

 

[Muse]

Due to all the talk here about housing crises in the USA...

60 Minutes had a really great piece about a month ago on a company based in Texas (Icon) that's 3D printing houses, interviewing the central figure, he's very bright/impressive, wearing a big cowboy hat, no less. NASA is likely going to use them to create a base on the moon by rocketing 3D printing hardware up there, hopefully by the end of this decade! I saw another piece on a company 3D printing houses on the news yesterday.

Here's the 60 Minutes piece. Skip the ad at the start...

 

[Moonbeam]

I found that Rick Wilson Tiktok bit, this is intense!

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7404373767738215722

Wow, his hand was really shaking..........

 

[Moonbeam]

The only way such a move reduced availability is if they didn't put them back on the market, and just held on to them. Which is not the case. What they did do, is buy them, and flip them. A normal practice that has been going on longer than I have been alive (55 years). Even if they held on to them and just rented them out, it would have little effect on housing prices as it doesn't do anything to offset the cause, which is lack of supply.

Lack of supply is also the major driving force behind high rent prices as well, and a major contributer to homelessness.

Heck, when I was in my twenties,, I had to have 3 room mates just so I could afford to live on my own. The same problem exists today, but even worse. It's all tied to supply/income deficiencies.

Lack of supply also relates to job concentration in places bosses like to live. As I may possibly not outlive any slide into abject poverty not earning at a modern wage rate, I can live anywhere, down stream, that I want and even have a better environment and housing to boot. But I am enough where happy where I am and don't have to learn how to get around in a new place. And since I own my home so far I'm not yet homeless.

 

[akugami]

@NWRMidnight At the height of the price increase in 2021, Zillow had over 7000 houses in its inventory. I believe they have since sold most of them.

I read in another article, not the one linked, that while the houses they bought only represented about 2% of houses sold, they targeted about 24 markets. And while it only represented 2% of all houses sold in a given period, in some areas like Phoenix, it represented 5% of available houses. That's just Zillow under the iBuyer brand, and Redfin. Keep in mind there are multiple corporations investing in houses. So I'm only guessing, but I wouldn't be surprised if close to 10% of houses in certain desirable areas were bought by these corporate investors.

Now, by no means am I saying big corporations buying houses was the only, or even the major, factor that caused the insane housing price increases of the last 4-5 years, but it certainly didn't help.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Due to all the talk here about housing crises in the USA...

60 Minutes had a really great piece about a month ago on a company based in Texas (Icon) that's 3D printing houses, interviewing the central figure, he's very bright/impressive, wearing a big cowboy hat, no less. NASA is likely going to use them to create a base on the moon by rocketing 3D printing hardware up there, hopefully by the end of this decade! I saw another piece on a company 3D printing houses on the news yesterday.

Here's the 60 Minutes piece. Skip the ad at the start...

only downside is concrete is super CO2 intensive. but the guy makes a good point about reduction of material types and waste, which is a huge benefit. ICF is also pretty interesting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

1) I own one piece of real estate, my house.

2) How does your suggested tax changes, build 6 million homes, add trade skilled workers to build such homes, change zoning laws to facilitate construction, and meet demand and create a glut of houses? You do understand where the demand comes from right?

3) What caused the forclosures of 2007 to 2010 (you can't even get the dates right)? If you are honest about the answer, you will find that it also disproves your theory about real estate investors.

4) If you outlaw AirBNB, then you have to out law rentals all together, including motels, hotels. So much for free enterprise. Of course, such a move won't help housing prices.. (see point #2)

5) what will happens to the people that depend on being able to rent a house? Do you even understand why many people rent, even though they could buy a house?

6) Why is there a push to build multifamily housing, more so than single family housing if it's a real estate investment problem?

7) more people own their homes today than ever before, (65%). How is that possible if the cost of housing/house prices is due to real estate investors?


Nothing you suggest will help the housing shortage and housing costs, because it doesn't do anything to fix what is causing the problem.

Congrats on owning your own home. If we can free up unoccupied AIRBNBs for full time owner occupied residency that would help ease supply to those seeking such properties as a personal residence to live in.

My suggested tax changes would help free up currently for rent properties to be converted into for sale properties that can then be purchased by families for full time occupancy.

Foreclosures have always existed and will continue to exist. They did not reach a crises stage until about 2009. The seeds of the mortgage financing crash arguably began in the early 2000s. I know, I was there in the industry starting in 1991. This topic has several points of view depending on your perspective. If you want to go down this rabbit hole we will need a new thread.

AIRBNB is all encompassing, however for the purposes of my proposal I am only referencing single family homes and in some cases condominiums and town homes as they can be individually owned. Said properties are not "hotels or motels" so to compare a structure whose sole purposes is for temporary use only versus one that can be purchased with mortgage and then be occupied for 30 years is kind of silly. So no, banning AIRBNB rentals of unoccupied single family homes would not impair hotels or motels but it may make them less competitive.

Instead of renting a house, rent an apartment. Problem solved.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, we cannot build as many homes as we would like because in some cases there is not enough water do do so. Locally some areas are strained due to lake of water pressure. It is ridiculous.

 

[BoomerD]

Congrats on owning your own home. If we can free up unoccupied AIRBNBs for full time owner occupied residency that would help ease supply to those seeking such properties as a personal residence to live in.

My suggested tax changes would help free up currently for rent properties to be converted into for sale properties that can then be purchased by families for full time occupancy.

Foreclosures have always existed and will continue to exist. They did not reach a crises stage until about 2009. The seeds of the mortgage financing crash arguably began in the early 2000s. I know, I was there in the industry starting in 1991. This topic has several points of view depending on your perspective. If you want to go down this rabbit hole we will need a new thread.

AIRBNB is all encompassing, however for the purposes of my proposal I am only referencing single family homes and in some cases condominiums and town homes as they can be individually owned. Said properties are not "hotels or motels" so to compare a structure whose sole purposes is for temporary use only versus one that can be purchased with mortgage and then be occupied for 30 years is kind of silly. So no, banning AIRBNB rentals of unoccupied single family homes would not impair hotels or motels but it may make them less competitive.

Instead of renting a house, rent an apartment. Problem solved.

In our small beachside town, Air BnB is limited by city code to only a couple of small parts of town…however, that doesn’t stop it from happening elsewhere…until neighbors turn them in and the owner gets hit with steep fines. Long term rentals are fine…short term rentals tend to get vacationers who “forget” that their temporary neighbors might have kids or jobs…and they party till the wee hours.

 

[Muse]

only downside is concrete is super CO2 intensive. but the guy makes a good point about reduction of material types and waste, which is a huge benefit. ICF is also pretty interesting.

There was mention made toward the end of the video that they are working on reducing the carbon footprint (no details provided).

Found this in a search:

How does 3D printing reduce carbon footprint?

3D printing reduces carbon footprints in a few different ways: Less energy and material waste. The process of additive manufacturing itself has a far lower carbon footprint compared to subtractive processes

On the moon they won't have concrete, they will use the loose material the moon is covered with, they call it regolith.

Regolith refers to the upper layer of the moon's surface, consisting of dust and rubble resulting from impact events and erosion caused by the solar wind. It is a fluffy material with a high void volume and contains glassy spherules formed by melting during micrometeorite impacts.

 

[Muse]

I like what Steve Schmidt did. Formerly a Republican campaign consultant, became a founder of The Lincoln Project and a DEMOCRAT! Has rejected the R party thoroughly and is doing his best to bury them. He's as funny as a heart attack, so don't expect chuckles (has a new YT video out just about daily).

New Steve Schmidt YT video that hits the nails on the head:

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Think I might know the anime, A Wind Named Amnesia?

Nope, it was Big O.

The Big O - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Big O is set in the fictional city-state of Paradigm City[a]. The city is located on a seacoast and is surrounded by a vast desert wasteland. The partially domed city is wholly controlled by the monopolistic Paradigm Corporation, resulting in a corporate police state. Paradigm is known as "The City of Amnesia"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_O#cite_note-6 because forty years prior to the story, "The Event"[c] destroyed the world outside the city and left the survivors without any prior memories. The city is characterized by severe class inequity; the higher-income population resides inside the more pleasant domes, with the remainder left in tenements outside. Residents of the city believe that they are the last survivors of the world and no other nations exist outside the city. Androids and giant robots known as "Megadeus" coexist with the residents of Paradigm City and residents do not find them unusual.[5]

 

[Paratus]

Due to all the talk here about housing crises in the USA...

60 Minutes had a really great piece about a month ago on a company based in Texas (Icon) that's 3D printing houses, interviewing the central figure, he's very bright/impressive, wearing a big cowboy hat, no less. NASA is likely going to use them to create a base on the moon by rocketing 3D printing hardware up there, hopefully by the end of this decade! I saw another piece on a company 3D printing houses on the news yesterday.

Here's the 60 Minutes piece. Skip the ad at the start...

only downside is concrete is super CO2 intensive. but the guy makes a good point about reduction of material types and waste, which is a huge benefit. ICF is also pretty interesting.

There was mention made toward the end of the video that they are working on reducing the carbon footprint (no details provided).

Found this in a search:

How does 3D printing reduce carbon footprint?

3D printing reduces carbon footprints in a few different ways: Less energy and material waste. The process of additive manufacturing itself has a far lower carbon footprint compared to subtractive processes

On the moon they won't have concrete, they will use the loose material the moon is covered with, they call it regolith.

Regolith refers to the upper layer of the moon's surface, consisting of dust and rubble resulting from impact events and erosion caused by the solar wind. It is a fluffy material with a high void volume and contains glassy spherules formed by melting during micrometeorite impacts.

I’ll let you guys know when I see the Phase 1 safety reviews for this equipment we are apparently sending to the moon. (In other words it’s going to be a while)

Also concrete doesn’t have to be CO2 intensive. New formulations can actually be carbon negative.

Researchers develop carbon-negative concrete

A viable formula for a carbon-negative, environmentally friendly concrete that is nearly as strong as regular concrete has been developed at Washington State University.

phys.org

 

[NWRMidnight]

Congrats on owning your own home. If we can free up unoccupied AIRBNBs for full time owner occupied residency that would help ease supply to those seeking such properties as a personal residence to live in.

My suggested tax changes would help free up currently for rent properties to be converted into for sale properties that can then be purchased by families for full time occupancy.

Foreclosures have always existed and will continue to exist. They did not reach a crises stage until about 2009. The seeds of the mortgage financing crash arguably began in the early 2000s. I know, I was there in the industry starting in 1991. This topic has several points of view depending on your perspective. If you want to go down this rabbit hole we will need a new thread.

AIRBNB is all encompassing, however for the purposes of my proposal I am only referencing single family homes and in some cases condominiums and town homes as they can be individually owned. Said properties are not "hotels or motels" so to compare a structure whose sole purposes is for temporary use only versus one that can be purchased with mortgage and then be occupied for 30 years is kind of silly. So no, banning AIRBNB rentals of unoccupied single family homes would not impair hotels or motels but it may make them less competitive.

Instead of renting a house, rent an apartment. Problem solved.

There's no need to go down any rabbit hole with you. It's been discussed already on this board.

You say you should know what caused the housing crisis, because you where in the industry, yet evade the very easy, short answer, which can be summed up in one sentence. And at the same time claiming that it didn't become a crisis stage untill 2009. Which is factually false. It peaked in 2009, it became a crisis 2 years prior.

Also, who implies that foreclosures didn't exist before the housing crisis, or wouldn't continue to exist? That is a stupid statement to make unless you are trying to act condescending, and make it appear you know what you are talking about, when in reality, you don't.

All you are showing is you don't listen, you are ignarant as hell, and nothing you have suggested, including banning airbnbs, will help bring down the cost of single family homes, or housing costs in general, including rentals.

 

[NWRMidnight]

@NWRMidnight At the height of the price increase in 2021, Zillow had over 7000 houses in its inventory. I believe they have since sold most of them.

I read in another article, not the one linked, that while the houses they bought only represented about 2% of houses sold, they targeted about 24 markets. And while it only represented 2% of all houses sold in a given period, in some areas like Phoenix, it represented 5% of available houses. That's just Zillow under the iBuyer brand, and Redfin. Keep in mind there are multiple corporations investing in houses. So I'm only guessing, but I wouldn't be surprised if close to 10% of houses in certain desirable areas were bought by these corporate investors.

Now, by no means am I saying big corporations buying houses was the only, or even the major, factor that caused the insane housing price increases of the last 4-5 years, but it certainly didn't help.

That doesn't change anything, unless they say on them and kept then off the market which they didn't do.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There's no need to go down any rabbit hole with you. It's been discussed already on this board.

You say you should know what caused the housing crisis, because you where in the industry, yet evade the very easy, short answer, which can be summed up In one sentence. And at the same time claiming that it didn't become a crisis stage untill 2009. Which is factually false. It peaked in 2009, it became a crisis 2 years prior.

Also, who implies that foreclosures didn't exist before the housing crisis, or wouldn't continue to exist? That is a stupid statement to make unless you are trying to act condescending, and make it appear you know what you are talking about, when in reality, you don't. Which I suspect is why you avoided answering the simple question as to what caused the housing crisis.

All you are showing is you don't listen, you are ignarant as hell, and nothing you have suggested, including banning airbnbs, will help bring down the cost of single family homes, or housing costs in general, including rentals.

You are free to disagree but you are wrong.

I see people make loans with 200 or 300 privately held single family homes as collateral in one loan request, most valued under $275k. Starter homes in middle to lower middle class working neighborhoods. The price category in highest demand ... all owned by one man.

Like I said earlier, it's not all bad, but it would better overall if they were in in the hands of 300 families.

One day the mortgages will be paid off, the housing expense is small, income is high enough to enjoy life. But if they remain rentals that will never be paid off by the renter.

But you do you. No difference is made either way. 😀