Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
200-300 MHz would have been enough for Zen 3 to somewhat tie Alder Lake, it would prevented Pat from making his "rear-view mirror" comment.

That was all talks to fool the gullible, in MT the 5950X at its stock 142W PPT is roughly 8% faster than the 12900K@241W.

I say roughly because Computerbase average use both CB R20 and R23 wich are a best case for Intel as well as Povray wich doesnt enable AVX2 for AMD CPUs, otherwise they would perform 18% better in this app.

 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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ughhh no.

It didn't tie ADL-S, it vaporized it, lmao.

I don't think Zen 3 x3d vaporized ADL. I think the fair assessment is:

Zen 3 > Comet Lake
Zen 3 > Rocket Lake
Zen 3 < Alder Lake <- This is where AMD f-ed, up lost Halo effect
Zen 3 x3d = Alder Lake
Zen 4 > Alder Lake
Zen 4 = Raptor Lake
Zen 4 x3d > Raptor Lake
Zen 4 x3d > Raptor Lake Refresh

AMD still has not fully regained the lost Halo effect.

what.
The client decline is all laptops since channel was stuffed with garbage.

When AMD lost the Halo effect, AMD meant nothing special anymore, then Intel could get away with it.

Fall of 2021 is when AMD dropped the ball. Sacrificed client for gains in server.

Zen 3 x3d was sacrificed in favor of Milan-X. Milan-X was just a nice bonus in market where AMD already had a good lead.

In the meantime, Zen 3 x3d in desktop meant everything. Also a new N6 stepping meant everything.

Now follow the trajectory from start of 2022. AMD gained almost nothing in server and lost 66% of client.

Overlooking a F. Up on this scale just means you are not paying attention to all of the relevant data, especially in terms of revenue $$$.

Regarding notebooks, if AMD is nothing special anymore, if Halo is gone, what is the point of paying premium for Rembrandt notebook? It is all connected.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
3,322
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I don't think Zen 3 x3d vaporized ADL
It did, to get any mileage out of S881 in gaming you had to have rather expensive (by then) fast DDR5 kits.
Just not viable.
When AMD lost the Halo effect, AMD meant nothing special anymore, then Intel could get away with it.

Fall of 2021 is when AMD dropped the ball. Sacrificed client for gains in server.

Zen 3 x3d was sacrificed in favor of Milan-X. Milan-X was just a nice bonus in market where AMD already had a good lead.

In the meantime, Zen 3 x3d in desktop meant everything. Also a new N6 stepping meant everything.

Now follow the trajectory from start of 2022. AMD gained almost nothing in server and lost 66% of client.
The client MSS is all about laptop.
DIY desktop is rounding error volumes.
what is the point of paying premium for Rembrandt notebook?
Well it literally whacks everything Intel pre-LNL in terms of battery life around.
Thinkpad Z13 with low power IPS is quite literally unreachable levels of battery life and it's been like a year since it launched.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,333
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That was all talks to fool the gullibe, in MT the 5950X at its stock 142W PPT is roughly 8% faster than the 12900K@241W.

I say roughly because Computerbase average use both CB R20 and R23 as well as Povray wich doesnt enable AVX2 for AMD CPUs, otherwise they would perform 18% better in this app.


Single thread performance is what is relevant to client.

Trivially parallelizable workloads are not. And they end up as a power efficiency test, since they bump into the power limits and are throttled. This is where AMD has a clear advantage, but it less relevant to client if Intel is ahead in Single thread - as it happened with Alder Lake vs. Zen 3.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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It did, to get any mileage out of S881 in gaming you had to have rather expensive (by then) fast DDR5 kits.
Just not viable.

The client MSS is all about laptop.
DIY desktop is rounding error volumes.

I agree. But it is the desktop where you gain the Halo effect, and notebooks where you cash in on it.

Something Intel is well aware off. Why else would Intel be releasing these ridiculous 300 Watt contraptions for desktop?

This is the point that seems to be (somewhat) lost on AMD.

Well it literally whacks everything Intel pre-LNL in terms of battery life around.
Thinkpad Z13 with low power IPS is quite literally unreachable levels of battery life and it's been like a year since it launched.

You are making my point here. If AMD still had a Halo effect customers would ask for AMD notebook and would end up with very well-balanced Rembrandt notebook.

If AMD is nothing special, and the customers may have heard Intel is back, they can just as well get a cheaper Intel based notebook with DDR4.
 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
1,205
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, in MT the 5950X at its stock 142W PPT is roughly 8% faster than the 12900K@241W.
It was esentially a tie in MT from 3Dcenter Meta Reviews
Zen 3 slammed in power consumption, but what you gonna do when Intel don't want to spend extra die space on more P cores? That's for high paying customers only.
Zen 3 > Rocket Lake
Idk if you're talking about just gaming perf or like "overall", but in gaming RKL = Zen 3. If it was overall, then ye Zen 3 roasts RKL
Zen 4 = Raptor Lake
Even if this was overall, I would argue RPL>Zen 4. ST is a bigger priority than the efficiency advantage vs Zen 4, at least in DIY.
It did, to get any mileage out of S881 in gaming you had to have rather expensive (by then) fast DDR5 kits.
Just not viable.
Since when did you care about the costs to the lowly DIY consumer, don't you have a hate boner for the general DIY space cuz they don't pay mommy Lisa the big bucks? 🤣
If you want to argue value, then the 5800x3d blows the 12900k out of the water, no problem. If you want to argue just perf overall without cost, then ye, it's esentially a tie. You don't really get to go halfsies.
Also, look at the list of memory that reviewers were using to compare the two... like half of them were literally just DDR4

I agree. But it is the desktop where you gain the Halo effect, and notebooks where you cash in on it.
Eh, idk. That's more of just how much mindshare Intel has with the general public with marketing and longevity, not really how good it's doing in desktop. Having better perf in desktop helps, for sure, but Intel is seen as the "premium" and "reliable" option for just regular people for way more reasons than just "high performance".
Plus, I think even regular people are starting to catch on to the "wow Intel runs hot/consumes a lot of power" thing recently, prob in large part due to Apple and them moving away from Intel chips.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Single thread performance is what is relevant to client.
Not for 16C/32T and 16C/24T CPUs, that may be the case with low core count CPUs but even in this segment a 10% difference in ST perf is negligible, it s not as if Intel advantage in this metric was huge, but marketing drums were indeed beaten at full tilt, that may explain your perception.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
3,322
4,790
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But it is the desktop where you gain the Halo effect, and notebooks where you cash in on it.
No.
Completely unrelated markets.
If AMD still had a Halo effect customers would ask for AMD notebook and would end up with very well-balanced Rembrandt notebook.
They buy a laptop; AMD/Intel whatever irrelevant.
AMD's job is to maximize premium design win count and bankroll the market development efforts.
You are slipping dude!
?
 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
1,205
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You are slipping dude! 🤣
Thought he made it pretty clear he only cares about premium products, it's in line with his character arc lol
Not for 16C/32T and 16C/24T CPUs, that may be the case with low core count CPUs but even in this segment a 10% difference in ST perf is negligible,
The cope is wild
ST is king for DIY, even for those flagship skus. Not everyone buying those skus are buying it for "muh productivity", bunch of them are just buying it for the biggest e-p***s (same reason I bought this 12900hs lol). Plus, anyone doing any real MT work is prob on TR... for various, obvious reasons...
Besides, the 12900k and 5950x esentially have the same MT perf, so ye, ST is the deciding factor.
but marketing drums were indeed beaten at full tilt, that may explain your perception.
True, Intel marketing brainwashed me. You really redpilled me. 🤣
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Besides, the 12900k and 5950x esentially have the same MT perf, so ye, ST is the deciding factor.

True, Intel marketing brainwashed me. You really redpilled me. 🤣

5950X a little faster in MT but it use only 142W at most, the 12900K use 241W, if you need an additional heater in a cold country the latter has some advantage...

In ST the 12900K is not that faster, 18% better in Computerbase test, and that s with 3 tests using CB R20 and R23 as well as Povray wich doesnt use AVX2 for AMD, otherwise the 5950X would be 18% faster in this test, so overall the real number is close to 8-9% better ST perf, so yes, Intel marketing can dupe most people.
 
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Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
1,205
1,172
106
5950X a little faster in MT but it use only 142W at most, the 12900K use 241W, if you need an additional heater in a cold country the latter has some advantage...

In ST the 12900K is not that faster, 18% better in Computerbase test, and that s with 3 tests using CB R20 and R23 as well as Povray wich doesnt use AVX2 for AMD, otherwise the 5950X would be 18% faster in this test, so overall the real number is close to 8-9% better ST perf, so yes, Intel marketing can dupe most people.
There was literally no new information in that entire paragraph.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
There was literally no new information in that entire paragraph.

Guees that it s quite a time that there isnt any, we ll have to wait for AMD spilling a few beans at CES in early 2023, in the waiting that s the same things that are rehashed ad nauseam, but if you have something credible and unknown to us that s welcome.
 

AAbattery

Member
Jan 11, 2019
27
56
91
Guees that it s quite a time that there isnt any, we ll have to wait for AMD spilling a few beans at CES in early 2023, in the waiting that s the same things that are rehashed ad nauseam, but if you have something credible and unknown to us that s welcome.
If sales of Zen 4 is still decent, I am afraid AMD might reveal nothing about performance at CES. Well, Lisa might say exactly the same thing about Zen 5 as Zen 4, when at CES that year she said it was in their labs and looked good.

If CES wasn't so consumer focused, I would think they might want to reveal a server benchmark of Turin rather than reveal anything about Granite Ridge.
 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
1,205
1,172
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Guees that it s quite a time that there isnt any, we ll have to wait for AMD spilling a few beans at CES in early 2023, in the waiting that s the same things that are rehashed ad nauseam, but if you have something credible and unknown to us that s welcome.
I'm talking about "no new information" in reference to the importance of ST perf over other metrics for DIY.
And also how a 10% advantage in ST isn't worth it in comparison for ADL vs Zen 3, when literally every other review finds it worthwhile enough to point out...
I am afraid AMD might reveal nothing about performance at CES.
Based on rumors of 1H 2024 launch, is it too optimistic to hope that AMD will spill the beans on Zen 5 IPC uplift in a certain application (like Zen 4?) probably
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,333
2,947
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Eh, idk. That's more of just how much mindshare Intel has with the general public with marketing and longevity, not really how good it's doing in desktop. Having better perf in desktop helps, for sure, but Intel is seen as the "premium" and "reliable" option for just regular people for way more reasons than just "high performance".
Plus, I think even regular people are starting to catch on to the "wow Intel runs hot/consumes a lot of power" thing recently, prob in large part due to Apple and them moving away from Intel chips.

The client revenue may be 10:1 notebook, but I think mindshare is 10:1 desktop. Which makes it 100x more important to gain mindshare in desktop. You can judge it by the number of computer hardware channels and their subscribers.

The arrogance with which AMD ignored it, but not ignoring Alder Lake launch came to bite AMD in the ... err ... behind with a vengeance. N6 based Zen 3 and Zen 3 X3D were both weapons which AMD did not use, and ended up steamrolled by Alder Lake. In the meantime, Zen 3XD did nothing for Milan-X (that could not have waited 3 months).

The people who were religious about their notebooks have left for Apple. Those who stayed with more affordable PC notebooks are not influencers in any way.
 

AAbattery

Member
Jan 11, 2019
27
56
91
Based on rumors of 1H 2024 launch, is it too optimistic to hope that AMD will spill the beans on Zen 5 IPC uplift in a certain application (like Zen 4?) probably
Ah, yes. The infamous ">15% single-thread uplift" from Computex 2022, that the footnote said was from a comparison to the 5950X in Cinebench R23, when the actual result was close to double that.

Speaking of single-thread uplift, I was looking at Passmark scores, wondering where Zen 5 will land. I'm guessing around 5400.

 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
1,205
1,172
106
The client revenue may be 10:1 notebook, but I think mindshare is 10:1 desktop. Which makes it 100x more important to gain mindshare in desktop. You can judge it by the number of computer hardware channels and their subscribers.
Mindshare in desktop DIY doesn't translate to the general public.
The people who were religious about their notebooks have left for Apple.
The people who wanted battery life and go to school left for Apple. To this day, I regret getting a gaming laptop rather than a mac. Should have just bought a lower end gaming pc and gotten a mac for school...
Ah, yes. The infamous ">15% single-thread uplift" from Computex 2022, that the footnote said was from a comparison to the 5950X in Cinebench R23, when the actual result was close to double that.
🤣 Give us a baseline for Zen5 AMD
Speaking of single-thread uplift, I was looking at Passmark scores, wondering where Zen 5 will land. I'm guessing around 5400.
Surprised to see 12th gen >20% ahead of Zen 3 in this benchmark. Someone's been telling me it was only 8%... lol
Anyway, A 25% uplift is prob a safe bet tbh for Zen 5
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
If sales of Zen 4 is still decent, I am afraid AMD might reveal nothing about performance at CES. Well, Lisa might say exactly the same thing about Zen 5 as Zen 4, when at CES that year she said it was in their labs and looked good.

If CES wasn't so consumer focused, I would think they might want to reveal a server benchmark of Turin rather than reveal anything about Granite Ridge.

They published Zen 4 expected IPC uplift 6 months before launch, granted they did unveil only 60% of the real number but if Zen 5 is to be lanched in mid 2024 they should give some hints, beside shareholders and other investors want some numbers, so eventually they ll talk about it when they ll release Q4 2023 earnings.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,765
4,668
136
As I see, finally people are starting to see the light that desktop is a nieche market, and what happens on this market does not define anything.

Mobile is more important market.
 
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