Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,703
3,911
136
I suppose this is confirmation of Z5 being the highest IPC core in the world.
Pretty clear that they have made a major breakthrough on the front end, conveniently that is the one area of the core all leaks have said nothing about.
Only shame is about the SMT yield. The fact the thing clocks comfortably over 5GHz is what will make the ARM boys head scratch.
Just to be sure, There aren't any public leaks about this yet, right? As far as the plebs are concerned, this is still only forum / twitter rumor-mill?

Why I ask, is that being a chronical Eastern European I love being needlessly sceptical and wrong, instead of being too hopeful and end up disappointed.

Case in point:

I was super hyped about RDNA3, once this Skyjuice leak surfaced, as it seemed quite obviously real and it was! These decent architectural gains on paper, excellent process shrink (TSMC N5) and promises by the vendor (50% perf/watt improvement) seemed to indicate a slam-dunk. Especially as AMD delivered on RDNA1 and RDNA2 perf/watt promises and had excellent track-record with chiplets.

Turns out, even awesome looking specs & architecture details don't mean much until they are backed up by actual benhmark numbers.

April can't come soon enough.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
3,114
1,780
106
I suppose this is confirmation of Z5 being the highest IPC core in the world.
Doubt.

Apple M3 Max
3200 GB6 ST
4.05 GHz
IPC: 790.1234567901

Ryzen 7950X
3000 GB6 ST
5.7 GHz
IPC: 526.3157

Zen 5 will have to bring a >50% IPC gain. That is very unlikely, eh?

The fact the thing clocks comfortably over 5GHz is what will make the ARM boys head scratch.
Nah we chillin'
 

eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,041
4,256
136
There are no "next-gen boards" (and why would they be called 800-series when current boards are 600-series?)

Also DDR5-8000, 2400 FCLK, X3D launching day one and 8+16 SKUs are pure fantasy from him.
I mean, Zen 4 does DDR-5 8000 today, even the APUs. It just doesn’t help much due to the architecture.

Also, expect board vendors to heavily promote “AI” with board refreshes.
Agreed. Should hopefully finally dispel the belief that x86 cannot scale as wide / have the same IPC as flagship premier ARM cores.
People always say that x86 can’t get any faster/wider/better…and then it does.

Remember that if something in x86 is a bottleneck, it can be changed and the old behavior emulated, if needed. Both AMD and Intel already do that for some legacy stuff.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,726
3,141
136
Just to be sure, There aren't any public leaks about this yet, right? As far as the plebs are concerned, this is still only forum / twitter rumor-mill?

Why I ask, is that being a chronical Eastern European I love being needlessly sceptical and wrong, instead of being too hopeful and end up disappointed.

Case in point:

I was super hyped about RDNA3, once this Skyjuice leak surfaced, as it seemed quite obviously real and it was! These decent architectural gains on paper, excellent process shrink (TSMC N5) and promises by the vendor (50% perf/watt improvement) seemed to indicate a slam-dunk. Especially as AMD delivered on RDNA1 and RDNA2 perf/watt promises and had excellent track-record with chiplets.

Turns out, even awesome looking specs & architecture details don't mean much until they are backed up by actual benhmark numbers.

April can't come soon enough.

I too was pretty excited for RDNA3. Those ALU counts were wrong though because it didn't factor in that the actual spec was half the ALU count but they were dual issue (on very rare occasions).

It was also the 1st time for a long time AMD missed a publicly released perf/w uplift, even though they tried to make it seem like a hit with their shady 300w 7900XTX Vs 300w 6900XT comparison which was utter BS. To be honest whoever decided to run with those cooked numbers really needed to lose their job because it was such a step back for how transparent AMD usually are with marketing performance figures.
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
430
712
136
I too was pretty excited for RDNA3. Those ALU counts were wrong though because it didn't factor in that the actual spec was half the ALU count but they were dual issue (on very rare occasions).

It was also the 1st time for a long time AMD missed a publicly released perf/w uplift, even though they tried to make it seem like a hit with their shady 300w 7900XTX Vs 300w 6900XT comparison which was utter BS. To be honest whoever decided to run with those cooked numbers really needed to lose their job because it was such a step back for how transparent AMD usually are with marketing performance figures.
The restricted VOPD scheme has been known from the open source ecosystem in advance. Yet, there has been clowns confirming stuff like: "n33 6nm 128bit gddr6 perf>6900xt".

It was simple for the le4k3rz. The shader count was essentially doubled - even Navi 33 got 4096 shaders. 5nm sauce, improved IPC, better InfinityCache, and the frequency bumped a bit => stomp of the 6900!
 

misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
407
467
136
People always say that x86 can’t get any faster/wider/better…and then it does.
I read about the doom and gloom of x86 since I could access internet. It'd always something else sending it to the grave and the damn Michael Jackson keeps doing the thriller. Until arm windows ecosystem is thriving, there is no chance in hell I will switch, as I'm too invested into the software side.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and Gideon

Kryohi

Member
Nov 12, 2019
27
48
91
Doubt.

Apple M3 Max
3200 GB6 ST
4.05 GHz
IPC: 790.1234567901

Ryzen 7950X
3000 GB6 ST
5.7 GHz
IPC: 526.3157
What's the normalized score of the Ryzen at 4GHz? I imagine it should be a bit higher, but no idea how much.

Edit: 7800x3d at 5GHz (I think) scores already a bit better, about 544/GHz. Assuming a similar scaling to 4GHz, it would take "only" a 40% IPC improvement to catch up to the M3 in GB6. Very rough calculations though, I know.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,369
7,092
136
Postponed? wasn't 20-24 months after Zen 4 always the plan?
According to who? Hasn't AMD historically launched a new Zen generation in 18 months? Zen 4 was the exception due to COVID, new platform, new node.

Zen 5 doesn't have to deal with any of that.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
136
According to who? Hasn't AMD historically launched a new Zen generation in 18 months? Zen 4 was the exception due to COVID, new platform, new node.

Zen 5 doesn't have to deal with any of that.
According to every AMD chart which showed it simply in 2024, not 2024H1.
Planning for more validation time isn't surprising given it's supposedly an actual redesign of the core. Not like Zen234 which were all evolutions.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,369
7,092
136
2 to 3 was 16mo or therein.
According to every AMD chart which showed it simply in 2024, not 2024H1.
Planning for more validation time isn't surprising given it's supposedly an actual redesign of the core. Not like Zen234 which were all evolutions.
I figured I do the homework and just lay it out for everyone's benefit:

Zen: March 2017
Zen+: April 2018 (13 months later)
Zen 2: July 2019 (15 months later)
Zen 3: November 2020 (16 months later)
Zen 4: November 2022 (24 months later)

That's on average 17 months between releases. More changes lead to longer gaps between releases and vice-versa. I'll let everyone make their own conclusions as to where Zen 5 *should* land.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
136
I figured I do the homework and just lay it out for everyone's benefit:

Zen: March 2017
Zen+: April 2018 (13 months later)
Zen 2: July 2019 (15 months later)
Zen 3: November 2020 (16 months later)
Zen 4: November 2022 (24 months later)

That's on average 17 months between releases. More changes lead to longer gaps between releases and vice-versa. I'll let everyone make their own conclusions as to where Zen 5 *should* land.
Zen+ is a misdirection. Zen 4 was late September 2022. The real average of Zen1->2->3->4 is about 22 months. In any case, the point is AMD never said anything about 2024H1 for Zen 5. The idea that it is postponed comes from people making a trend from the exception to the rule (Zen 3) or thinking optimistically.
If it is a larger change than any Zen since the Zen 1 it would have more time allotted for validation.
 
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