Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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We won't know until well after the fact, but yes, you are likely correct. AMD never used a conventional N7 node either.
As I recall from the winter of 2019 tsmc referenced a special performance library that had been designed or modified to meet amd's needs. Whatever that meant. Tsmc doesn't like to go into detail about anything pertinent to their ip. this was in reference to the summer 2019 launch of zen 2. maybe rx5000 too but I forget the details of that.
 

Joe NYC

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To quote our very own "lord" on this Lord day @DrMrLordX amd ought to have started out with 3d vcache models to pump sales all throughout fall and winter and now into spring.
To say that AMD was somehow holding back V-Cache models of Zen 4 is not realistic.

It has a combination of new set of process technologies from TSMC bonded together, that has not been used by anyone before, the range of parameters for V-Cache to operate in safely is narrower than plain Zen 4, And AMD had for find this range supported by extensive testing, and then ramp up production.

V-Cache CPUs would have helped with Zen 4 launch, but also AMD not shooting itself in the foot with the AM5 platform would have helped with the launch quantities of Zen 4.
 
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Joe NYC

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This week is the 7800 X3D launch week. The stats are most likely just temporary.

True. My prediction was that the AM5 platform will overtake both Intel and AMD AM4 platform by some time in June. That prediction is looking better this week.

It is taking 9 months for AM5 platform to get into competitive range across the board, and by not being ready on Day 1 held Zen 4 back.

But next round, with Zen 5, AMD will not have a problem with new platform. We will see if having to switch platforms again will hold Intel back. But one thing that has to be acknowledged is that Inte is still better than AMD at launching a new platform in reasonably broad and stable state.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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To say that AMD was somehow holding back V-Cache models of Zen 4 is not realistic.

IT is a combination of new set of technologies from not used by anyone before, the range of parameters for V-Cache to operate in safely is narrower than plain Zen 4, And AMD had for find this range supported by extensive testing, and then ramp up production.

V-Cache CPUs would have helped with Zen 4 launch, but also AMD not shooting itself in the foot with the AM5 platform would have helped with the launch quantities of Zen 4.
I never said it did. Others are implying AMD would have held back. The theory cannot be possible. I would further argue saying both zen 3 and zen 4 release dates were impacted by the pandemic.

But AMD had done v-cache before or do you mean the current shrink on the cache for zen 4?

AMD shot itself in the foot by not support ddr4, not high prices. with ddr4 on intel you gained short term higher performance vs high prices "slow" ddr5 which isn't true anymore. Ddr5 prices have fallen harder than prior generations this early into its mainstream life. new speeds are coming out every 4-5 weeks. DDR5 will be phased out starting in 3 years.

Intel never had serious plans on pricing their 13900k above $600, any such pricing was done by a reseller like Amazon. Even with sharp cuts Intel is outsold. When AMD changed their pricing to reflect cyber monday sales also when @Markfw tried to get me to buy then DDR5 was still as high as launch prices. Only had ddr5 begin to dump its value since mid december where it has rapidly fallen in price. Use of third party price chart trackers can confirm this is the reason sales began climbing.

AMD's biggest weakness now is their aib partners have not qualified 48 and 96 and 192 gb kits yet for their platform. x670 is miles ahead of z790, with the latter only having tb4 ports on very expensive models. X670 is the professional's or the creator's wet dream for an all in one platform that doesn't break the bank, has amazing memory capacity, great capacity for storage and a high frequency for frequency loving apps.
 

DrMrLordX

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Apr 27, 2000
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To quote our very own "lord" on this Lord day @DrMrLordX amd ought to have started out with 3d vcache models to pump sales all throughout fall and winter and now into spring.
Dunno if I can claim to be the first to say that, but yes, it would have been a more-compelling product lineup that way. Stacking on N5 might not have been ready at that time though.

AMD did kind of Osbourne their own 7950X etc.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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AMD shot itself in the foot by not support ddr4, not high prices. with ddr4 on intel you gained short term higher performance vs high prices "slow" ddr5 which isn't true anymore. Ddr5 prices have fallen harder than prior generations this early into its mainstream life. new speeds are coming out every 4-5 weeks. DDR5 will be phased out starting in 3 years.

IMO, AMD shot itself in the foot by launching Zen 4 with only the high end PCIe Gen 5 670e platform, while AMD itself knew there would be nothing to plug into it. AMD had some insight, being one of 2 GPU companies, when PCIe5 x16 would be needed.
$350 motherboard can kill the sales of $300 CPU.

DDR5, was IMO a secondary issue, supporting DDR4 with Zen 5 would have been more trouble (and money wasted) than benefit, in the long run


Intel never had serious plans on pricing their 13900k above $600, any such pricing was done by a reseller like Amazon. Even with sharp cuts Intel is outsold. When AMD changed their pricing to reflect cyber monday sales also when @Markfw tried to get me to buy then DDR5 was still as high as launch prices. Only had ddr5 begin to dump its value since mid december where it has rapidly fallen in price. Use of third party price chart trackers can confirm this is the reason sales began climbing.

AMD's biggest weakness now is their aib partners have not qualified 48 and 96 and 192 gb kits yet for their platform. x670 is miles ahead of z790, with the latter only having tb4 ports on very expensive models. X670 is the professional's or the creator's wet dream for an all in one platform that doesn't break the bank, has amazing memory capacity, great capacity for storage and a high frequency for frequency loving apps.

I think those memories just became available recently. Intel had support for them earlier, but AMD is adding support as well, as these DIMMs start to make it to market.

On a workstation level segment, I think AMD should have gone with 4 memory channels + additional PCIe lanes. That platform, spanning from HEDT to low to mainstream servers would have been far superior in popularity than Sienna platform will be.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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Dunno if I can claim to be the first to say that, but yes, it would have been a more-compelling product lineup that way. Stacking on N5 might not have been ready at that time though.

AMD did kind of Osbourne their own 7950X etc.
you complain enough that I can say you said it and am probably right 60pc of the time.
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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????

AM5 launched September 27th. 6 months 2 weeks.

I was talking about my prediction, that AMD will have its ducks in a row by June, and that's when AM5 platform will overtake AM4.

A620 are just emerging now, and some motherboards still have issues with idle power. So another 2-3 months, and we will be in AM5 nirvana.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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IMO, AMD shot itself in the foot by launching Zen 4 with only the high end PCIe Gen 5 670e platform, while AMD itself knew there would be nothing to plug into it. AMD had some insight, being one of 2 GPU companies, when PCIe5 x16 would be needed.
$350 motherboard can kill the sales of $300 CPU.
This is an incorrect take. Pcie5 drives were DUE, they got delayed last minute due to problems with the designs the initial companies had. Even the current drives available are awful. No company starts out with their cheapest gear first. It's always from the top down. Intel's high end is not worth the money. Their low end is, or was until AMD dropped prices low enough that you can now score a great 7950X+x670e for 700 or 800.
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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I think those memories just became available recently. Intel had support for them earlier, but AMD is adding support as well, as these DIMMs start to make it to market.
Incorrect. 7200MT/s memory has been available for a very long time since late august 2022. It was very expensive. 8200 MT/s ddr5 was announced at the end of march. It's intro pricing won't be close to the intro on 7200. Most of the low 6000s kits were at least or past half a grand us dollars in at the time of zen 4 and raptor's launch. they're under 280 now. The newer 96 gb kits at 6400 and 6800 will be coming in at under 400 usd but at this rate may be asp'ing at a much lower price.


perfect time to build a pc baby.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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AMD must have known early on that their DDR5 support was kind of spotty (their IF speed being the main bottleneck). They should have released quad channel DDR4 support at least for the 7950X/7900X models to make users happy and to keep their monster CPUs well fed with data. If they had asked me, this would have been my free advice to them to make their product line-up more compelling against Intel's value combination of relatively cheaper DDR4 mobos paired with their HOT CPUs.
 
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soresu

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Dec 19, 2014
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The newer 96 gb kits at 6400 and 6800 will be coming in at under 400 usd but at this rate may be asp'ing at a much lower price.
Most memory manufacturers are scaling down production due to oversupply and low market demand.

This means any coming kits will likely be more expensive than less.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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Most memory manufacturers are scaling down production due to oversupply and low market demand.

This means any coming kits will likely be more expensive than less.
That won't take effect until late q3. They're not going to destroy what they have so far and it's a lot. assuming demand doesn't pick up then it will get expensive once excess sells out. The problem is this is a risk they have taken on in the past and been wrong about demand 4-6 months from now. Historic models are a poor way to visualize future sales trends outside the big holidays.
 

eek2121

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IMO, AMD shot itself in the foot by launching Zen 4 with only the high end PCIe Gen 5 670e platform, while AMD itself knew there would be nothing to plug into it. AMD had some insight, being one of 2 GPU companies, when PCIe5 x16 would be needed.
$350 motherboard can kill the sales of $300 CPU.

DDR5, was IMO a secondary issue, supporting DDR4 with Zen 5 would have been more trouble (and money wasted) than benefit, in the long run




I think those memories just became available recently. Intel had support for them earlier, but AMD is adding support as well, as these DIMMs start to make it to market.

On a workstation level segment, I think AMD should have gone with 4 memory channels + additional PCIe lanes. That platform, spanning from HEDT to low to mainstream servers would have been far superior in popularity than Sienna platform will be.
AMD knew exactly what they were doing, and I dare say they succeeded.

They pushed for margins over volume while ramping up production, gradually shifting as production increased. This allows them to hit (or come close to) margin targets on earnings reports.
Incorrect. 7200MT/s memory has been available for a very long time since late august 2022. It was very expensive. 8200 MT/s ddr5 was announced at the end of march. It's intro pricing won't be close to the intro on 7200. Most of the low 6000s kits were at least or past half a grand us dollars in at the time of zen 4 and raptor's launch. they're under 280 now. The newer 96 gb kits at 6400 and 6800 will be coming in at under 400 usd but at this rate may be asp'ing at a much lower price.


perfect time to build a pc baby.

What does 'recently' mean to you? March of this year and August of last year are both pretty recent to me. If you knew how long it takes to churn the microcode that supports these modules you'd understand. Also remember that memory vendors actively choose to support XMP (an Intel standard) because Intel has historically controlled the market.

1st generation EXPO is an attempt to change that. Yes, it has it's problems, but the initial implementation of XMP did as well.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,352
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AMD knew exactly what they were doing, and I dare say they succeeded.

They pushed for margins over volume while ramping up production, gradually shifting as production increased. This allows them to hit (or come close to) margin targets on earnings reports.


What does 'recently' mean to you? March of this year and August of last year are both pretty recent to me. If you knew how long it takes to churn the microcode that supports these modules you'd understand. Also remember that memory vendors actively choose to support XMP (an Intel standard) because Intel has historically controlled the market.

1st generation EXPO is an attempt to change that. Yes, it has it's problems, but the initial implementation of XMP did as well.
Recent means within the last month. August is 7+ months ago as of today. I couldn't give a toss what an overpaid code monkey is doing at those offices. Are we discussing capacity or frequency here? You being fresh with me isn't helping. XMP is a protocol for memory speed and timings. Not capacity. The capacity is hardware based. The motherboard BIOS must be able to recognize those capacities. For AMD under most AIBs it's still in very early beta stages. And Genius, most people are aware what XMP is. Were you aware that the kits by Micron and Corsair are dual platform compatible? I threw out the G.Skill name to see if anyone would bite and give me a ridiculous reply. I was right, it worked. See you next Tuesday, for our next round of you saying something ridiculous.
 
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Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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This is an incorrect take. Pcie5 drives were DUE, they got delayed last minute due to problems with the designs the initial companies had. Even the current drives available are awful. No company starts out with their cheapest gear first. It's always from the top down. Intel's high end is not worth the money. Their low end is, or was until AMD dropped prices low enough that you can now score a great 7950X+x670e for 700 or 800.

The problem was PCI Gen 5 x16 GPU slot. AMD knew there would be nothing to plug into it for probably 2 years, and still went ahead and launched Zen 4 with these overpriced, overengineered boards.

The boards should have been much simpler and cheaper, with Gen 4 for GPU and Gen 5 for storage for high end, all Gen 4 for low end. For next 2 years.

IIRC, difference between x670 and b650 is 28 USB ports vs 22 USB ports, both being crazy numbers and overkill.

BTW, Intel misjudged things even worse, by having Gen 5 for GPU and only Gen 4 for storage.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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The problem was PCI Gen 5 x16 GPU slot. AMD knew there would be nothing to plug into it for probably 2 years, and still went ahead and launched Zen 4 with these overpriced, overengineered boards.
Not quite mister Joe. No pcie5 drives but you could install pcie4 drives, a larger number without sacrificing throughput if you only put pcie4 slots and nvme. For content creators whether that's youtubers, gamers, music artists who need lots of storage, people who produce lascivious materials, vfx artists and video editors who need storage for big files and fast scratch it made a lot of sense. Oh and intel were going to include pcie5 so why wouldn't they have to either? The overnegineering is a result from how poorly engineered the first major 2 revisions of am4 were, x370 and x470 are far from the quality x570 is, and x670 is higher due to better materials being used. Pcie5 requires better signaling and this added to costs. The breakeven is higher for aibs. If there is an x770 and there likely will be next year it'll include support for pcie6. The problem with this board is everyone knows that unless something catastrophic happens, DDR6 is coming sooner than most would anticipate it coming. Those two should push board prices up. Nvidia's Blackwell is going to use pcie5 according to various rumors. I can't see why it would especially given the status of direct storage wafting in the wind like a tattered flag.
 

Joe NYC

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Incorrect. 7200MT/s memory has been available for a very long time since late august 2022. It was very expensive. 8200 MT/s ddr5 was announced at the end of march. It's intro pricing won't be close to the intro on 7200. Most of the low 6000s kits were at least or past half a grand us dollars in at the time of zen 4 and raptor's launch. they're under 280 now. The newer 96 gb kits at 6400 and 6800 will be coming in at under 400 usd but at this rate may be asp'ing at a much lower price.


perfect time to build a pc baby.

I was talking about the oddball 24 / 46 GB module sizes not speeds.

The prices for 6000 speed chips were not astronomical, but agreed, this is a good time to be buying now.

Regarding faster DIMM speeds, there is a new standard being implemented called MRDIMM being evaluated.

Getting anything faster than 6400 and Introducing instability to your system by doing it is just an exercise in masochism. Your system IS going to crash on you when you need it the least, at the worst time.

It's the best to let the JEDEC, memory manufacturers, CPU and motherboard makers figure out this problem, rather than me figuring it out.
 
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Joe NYC

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???

Z790 has 1x pcie 5 x16 pcie slot
1x pcie5 x4 nvme

And dependingon the board multiple pcie 4 slots. Did you mean b7x0?

The original platform that launched with Alder Lake had Gen 5 for GPU and Gen 4 for nvme.

I did not look into the new 790 platform yet, to know where the Gen 5 lanes for storage are coming from, if directly from CPU or not.

But this is getting off topic for Zen 5, last post from me here on the platforms here.
 
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A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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I was talking about the oddball 24 / 46 GB module sizes not speeds.
Oh those. That is new but not new at the same time. I saw some chatter on Asian forums mid last year and learned more about them at work during the summer. The units discussed ere rdimms. Whatever, it didn't apply to my personal life and then in late fall I'd learned they were coming to consumer. In January or very early February a vendor put out a press release about them. The speeds weren't terribly great but they'd get better over time. The consumer bioses began getting updates months ago either referenced or not. Most consumers will not need it maybe 48 GB kits if they can't afford or don't need 64 but need more than 32. The kits close the tiny gaps in the market where you either had to switch to a better platform or not to access those higher caps. It's like getting TR to get access when you don't need TR performance or buy in cost. Get it?

I can't think of many uses for 92GB or 192GB kits on Intel or Ryzen mainstream consumer but maybe small time editors or graphics designers? IDK

The original platform that launched with Alder Lake had Gen 5 for GPU and Gen 4 for nvme.

I did not look into the new 790 platform yet, to know where the Gen 5 lanes for storage are coming from, if directly from CPU or not.

But this is getting off topic for Zen 5, last post from me here on the platforms here.
Yeah that's cause z690 was the first to have pcie5 x16 and intel touted this big time over amd but they forgot their alder lake had bugs, a poorer imc and the boards weren't friendly with some ram. It is better now. PCIe5 nvme existed but only with an add in card. The high end boards came with such a card. Some really high end boards do come with gen 5 nvme built in, but using that slot halves the pcie5 x16 slot.
 
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