Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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That’d be a big enough perf/watt increase to show in a slide.
Well it looks that, yea.
They wouldn’t just forget to show off a >=10% perf/watt increase.
In case you've missed the keynote, stuff not AI is not relevant.
They did away with GNR in like the first 5 minutes and there you go.
As was already mentioned, this may be all clock AVX-512 full speed (as opposed to 1 half of AVX-512 at full clock speed in Zen 4)
It floats above in AVX-512 too.
 
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H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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M
Well it looks that, yea.

In case you've missed the keynote, stuff not AI is not relevant.
They did away with GNR in like the first 5 minutes and there you go.
I’m guessing it’s <10% perf/watt over Zen 4. I don’t think you skip an important detail like that. It was a 90 minute key note filled with partner wank bloat.. they would’ve squeezed it in.
 

branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
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IMO, the opposite. Client has a better time dealing with the lower than expected IPC gains than server because DIY can cope with 3D V-cache. For servers, Granite Rapids looks much more competitive with Turin now. Both are 128C, Turin should have the per-core perf advantage, but if RWC can manage to clock higher (given a certain amount of power), or at least close to Zen 5....
Z4>Z5 is a bigger leap than RPC>RWC+. Turin platform architecture should remain a big differentiator and the gains from what was shown extrapolated to Genoa results is showing another big leap.
Intel closes the gap a bit, but not enough to change the situation.
Wait for CWF.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Z4>Z5 is a bigger leap than RPC>RWC+. Turin platform architecture should remain a big differentiator and the gains from what was shown extrapolated to Genoa results is showing another big leap.
Intel closes the gap a bit, but not enough to change the situation.
Wait for CWF.
yeah CWF is the first notable Intel DC product.
Expensive, but should be good.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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IMO, the opposite. Client has a better time dealing with the lower than expected IPC gains than server because DIY can cope with 3D V-cache. For servers, Granite Rapids looks much more competitive with Turin now. Both are 128C, Turin should have the per-core perf advantage, but if RWC can manage to clock higher (given a certain amount of power), or at least close to Zen 5....

A lot of power consumption and clock speed assumption to make any conclusions.

When it comes to hype, Intel is hyping Sierra Forrest more than Granite Rapids. Which would lead me to guess that Intel thinks Sierra Forrest will be better competitively vs. competition than Granite Rapids. But then, that's another assumption...
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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We will see how the SpecInt Rate turn out for servers.

There are 2 ways to get there. Either higher power, same or lower clock speed and much higher IPC.

Or, if the power consumption is lower, server chip can run at higher all core clock speed and would need lower IPC to get there.

Nah, it's over. If AMD was able to get to the over 30% integer IPC mark, it would have been made known very loudly in their presentation today.

I never believed the crazy high IPC/perf predictions but, like pretty much everyone else, the 16% numbers (still needs 3rd party review) is still a disappointment. Not a bad number, but definitely disappointing given the changes to the core and what they were able to get previously with Zen 3. Based on those things, I was expecting at least 20% but here we are and another hype train has crashed. Looks like my 5900x will get some more life as I'll wait now for at least the 3d cache versions before upgrading, if not Zen 6. Had the hype train been real, I probably would have jumped on the initial release.

On the plus side, it does look like availability will be good for STX and soon after release. Hopefully this actually comes true in the end consumer market. While I don't care about the NPU, having the top performing NPU for now probably led AMD to get a good chunk of their design wins with all the AI fervor going around. I am also happy to see the lowered TDPs on desktop. It probably will make for an awkward gen on gen performance comparison for each tier that had a significant TDP drop, but I very much disliked how AMD seemed to be following Intel's lead into insane power consumption to eek out a tiny bit higher score on benchmarks. I for one welcome this reset on TDP levels. I just wish they did the same for the top CPU as well, though I understand why they didn't. Server will be fine and I expect they will continue to win market share there. Consumer side is quite a battlefield though. I think both Intel and AMD need a A64/Conroe type moment to reset their core designs and stop wasting power and area gunning after crazy high clocks but I don't know if that's really possible for them anytime soon. I was hoping Zen 5 was going to be AMD's first step in that direction, but it didn't turn out that way.

Ahh well, at least we should have some calm before the next hype storm starts brewing. I also want to give a shout out to @Exist50 who seems to have called quite a lot of things with good accuracy on both sides and did so without being abrasive or seeking to demean other posters. Hopefully we can get back to that type of discussion which seemed to be what we (mostly) had for a while until fairly recently.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Nah, it's over. If AMD was able to get to the over 30% integer IPC mark, it would have been made known very loudly in their presentation today.

The claim was SpecInt Rate score not IPC (correct me if I am wrong). IPC was implied.

I never believed the crazy high IPC/perf predictions but, like pretty much everyone else, the 16% numbers (still needs 3rd party review) is still a disappointment. Not a bad number, but definitely disappointing given the changes to the core and what they were able to get previously with Zen 3. Based on those things, I was expecting at least 20% but here we are and another hype train has crashed. Looks like my 5900x will get some more life as I'll wait now for at least the 3d cache versions before upgrading, if not Zen 6. Had the hype train been real, I probably would have jumped on the initial release.

Same here. I did not post any of my predictions, but my expectation was 20-25% IPC, so 16% is definitely below the expectations.

On the plus side, it does look like availability will be soon for STX and soon after release. Hopefully this actually comes true in the end consumer market. While I don't care about the NPU, having the top performing NPU for now probably led AMD to get a good chunk of their design wins with all the AI fervor going around. I am also happy to see the lowered TDPs on desktop. It probably will make for an awkward gen on gen performance comparison for each tier that had a significant TDP drop, but I very much disliked how AMD seemed to be following Intel's lead into insance power consumption to eek out a tiny bit higher score on benchmarks. I for one welcome this reset on TDP levels. I just wish they did the same for the top CPU as well, though I understand why they didn't. Server will be fine and I expect they will continue to win marketshare there. Consumer side is quite a battlefield though. I think both Intel and AMD need a A64/Conroe type moment to reset their core designs and stop wasting power and area gunning after crazy high clocks but I don't know if that's really possible for them anytime soon. I was hoping Zen 5 was going to be AMD's first step in that direction, but it didn't turn out that way.

Strix seems to be meeting and exceeding expectations except possibly Single Thread performance.

As far as the power consumption re-set, I think we will see that first in Strix Halo, in LP cores for a specific purpose, while full and dense cores have modest power consumption gains.

Ahh well, at least we should have some calm before the next hype storm starts brewing. I also want to give a shout out to @Exist50 who seems to have called quite a lot of things with good accuracy on both sides and did so without being abrasive or seeking to demean other posters. Hopefully we can get back to that type of discussion which seemed to be what we (mostly) had for a while until fairly recently.

Definitely good to see him back.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,593
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The claim was SpecInt Rate score not IPC (correct me if I am wrong). IPC was implied.

It was 32% SPECint 1t IPC increase (with the caveat that this was actually a low ball figure because the real number was too big to believe) for one poster and 40+% total SPECint rate performance when comparing core for core. Neither is happening.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Zen 4 was fine with even less because it had a higher clock rate than it's predecessor.
In this case all they needed to be around a normal 20-22% 1T performance increase was 200-300MHz more.
 
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Jan Olšan

Senior member
Jan 12, 2017
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View attachment 100290

This slide was spot on, seems Zen 6 with 10% IPC would be what I would bet on.
MLID the winning leaker.

AMD took almost two years for a paltry 16% while Apple and ARM iterating on almost yearly cadence.
This slide was always considered legit, no surprises there (MLID or not, when they show you stuff like that, that is much more reliable than just those usual quaotes from "sources"). Back then I personally though it would be underguessing more and the final IPC would be +18 %...

As for Apple... they had only one new core (M3) per four generations of SoCs, since M1. And that core doesn't have much better IPC actually, either. Rest is ramping up clocks (wchih ironically all the fanboys bashed hard as the WRONG and stupid thing to do, in 2020 - I find that very amusing).

The only one party iterating yearly is Cortex.

AMD put out Zen 3 at about the same time as M1 and came up with Z4 and Z5 since, both with +10-15% IPC so that's more progress if you believe "gigahurtz dumb"
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,593
8,768
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No it’s not. ARM did 16% YoY vs AMD’s 8% YoY.

Apple did 7% IPC M3 -> M4 in 7 months. That’s also a company that’s lost a lot of CPU talent recently.

AMD is actually on the low end.

I think you're over valuing the ARM and Apple IPC improvements. M4 was like 5% improvement and has been <= 5% for multiple generations now. The latest ARM big core seems to be < 10% though that's still TBD with proper testing. Apple (and ARM to a degree) have mostly been increasing performance through clock gains. Apple is still IPC king because of the lead they had starting several years ago, but IPC increases have not been good as of late.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,488
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AMD put out Zen 3 at about the same time as M1 and came up with Z4 and Z5 since, both with +10-15% IPC so that's more progress if you believe "gigahurtz dumb"
I think they mean Zen 5 still hasn't reached Firestorm IPC. And the 9950X will probably be behind a 10W iPad in day-to-day tasks because it didn't achieve that nor did it push clock rates higher. Although I guess it is a fair bit cheaper...
 
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