Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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TwistedAndy

Member
May 23, 2024
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Maybe it’s time to put this argument to rest? In the last 4 years Apple had more ST gains than any x86 designer, and their rate of improvement actually accelerated with M4. Yes, some of those were achieved by increasing the power consumption (just like anyone else does). There is no evidence whatsoever that they are stalled or hurting for loss of talent. I don’t think that “they failed to increase Clang subtest IPC since 2021” is a good argument. Their IPC there is already ridiculously high. They might be at a practical limit.

Apple M4 has an 8 - 12% IPC increase compared to M1. Most of the performance gains come from higher clock speeds and more advanced nodes.

As for the power consumption, the M4 P-core consumes more than twice the power as the M1:

 

poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
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The 16% IPC increase is a pretty good result. My biggest concern is that it took almost two years to achieve that.

If we take Apple, for comparison, M4 has 8 - 12% better IPC than M1 (in SPEC17 and GeekBench 6 without SME). Yes, during the last 4 years, Apple has had a smaller IPC increase than AMD in 2 years. Most of the performance increase comes from higher clock speeds.
my goodness. The level of defence for AMD. ARM did 16% YoY. 16% in 2 years and a "new" core is not good. Its average.

Apple is stuck atm, we know that.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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I think it's because some "leakers" and "insiders" have been selling that this is going to be totally revolutionary, and clearly it's not. It's not terrible, but it's not ground-breaking.
No, it's mid.
The rule of thumb is 25% 1t or more, or piss off.
They've been really, really consistent at not violating that, but alas.
 

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
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We have results for SPEC for Apple chips and OpenBenchmarking is a joke.
real world performance is always better than synthetic and potentially manipulated benchmarks

open bench is a joke because its real? man, we have user submitted benchmark threads here on the forums, those would easily be as legit... Are you thinking of userbenchmark? the site that is very not legit?
 

TwistedAndy

Member
May 23, 2024
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But Apple is increasing clock rates faster than AMD. AMD (and Intel) need to go for IPC because they can't get much frequency. Apple can still get frequency.

Yes, but the power consumption of M4 has more than doubled compared to M1. One P-core in M4 running at 4.5 GHz consumes 7.2 to 9W. If you have 12 of them (in M4 Max), the total power consumption only for the CPU part will be nearly 100W.

Apple has to throttle them down back to M3 levels. As a result, the performance of M4 Max will be nearly the same as that of M3 Max on MT load.
 

leoneazzurro

Golden Member
Jul 26, 2016
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Nobody really noticed that they used 9950X and 7700X for Gen. Vs. Gen. comparison (GNR-03, probably IPC) ?
What the .... )
Probably a typo in the footnotes, otherwise there would be no sense at all in the scores (no way a 16 core CU can be only +17% in a multi-core test compared to a 8 core CPU, and in the same slide notes all the tests are noted as n-threads). Not the first time slide decks are inconsistent.

Edit: correcting a typo.
 
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Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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real world performance is always better than synthetic and potentially manipulated benchmarks

open bench is a joke because its real? man, we have user submitted benchmark threads here on the forums, those would easily be as legit... Are you thinking of userbenchmark? the site that is very not legit?
No I'm not thinking of userbenchmarking

I was a bit misleading in my statement, sorry. The problem with OpenBenchmarking is that people misuse it: wrong compiler flags, obsolete versions of SW (for instance some of the benchmarks used to be only optimized for x86 intrinsics/assembly and only got Arm support recently), etc. I basically don't trust the database of results. But I agree the width of applications is great and much more pertinent than other benchmarks such as Geekbench and SPEC.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Some of the metrics that are important for client are totally missing (7zip for example), the ones that are included WebXprt & Jetstream it’s 15% and 12% respectively. Also, why would they compare the 9950X v 7700X in the IPC chart? I’m willing to bet it does worse in 3rd party benchmarks than what AMD showed us tonight.

More importantly, who exactly is buying this thing over Zen 4 X3D? It doesn’t meaningfully beat RPL in 1T performance (either worse or at parity in javabloat and cinememe) and probably doesn’t outperform Zen 4 X3D in gaming.. so what is the market for SKUs like 9600X and 9700X?

If price is approx. the same, anyone buying lower priced 7600X, 7700X (rather than 7800x3d) would instead buy 9600x and 9700x.
 

poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
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Yes, but the power consumption of M4 has more than doubled compared to M1. One P-core in M4 running at 4.5 GHz consumes 7.2 to 9W. If you have 12 of them (in M4 Max), the total power consumption only for the CPU part will be nearly 100W.

Apple has to throttle them down back to M3 levels. As a result, the performance of M4 Max will be nearly the same as that of M3 Max on MT load.

Good, so about the same as X Elite and Intel/AMD are much worse. Apple will simply kick up the fans in Macbook Pros and this is a non issue on the Studios. Well, this is the result of IPC stagnation..
 

Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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If I hear the fans I'm going into low power mode. That's the biggest problem with x64 laptops
So far I've been able to count on Apple not doing that (unless I was actually doing something).
Oh yeah my P1 laptop is a pain. As soon as it's plugged in, fans turn on
OTOH doing heavy SIMD programming, my M1 Pro fans turn on as soon as I launch my program. But it's much less annoying than the P1.
 

TwistedAndy

Member
May 23, 2024
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Good, so about the same as X Elite and Intel/AMD are much worse. Apple will simply kick up the fans in Macbook Pros and this is a non issue on the Studios. Well, this is the result of IPC stagnation..

Yep, and that's what Apple will do. I think they can increase clock speeds without major architecture updates for another two generations.

As for the new AMD Zen 5 lineup, it's good enough. It's not something groundbreaking, but a decent update. I'm waiting to see the new Strix Halo with 16C and the integrated LP cores. I hope it will address the idle power issue.

As for Intel, I'm really excited to see the new E-cores (Skymont). If the leaked slides are correct and we will see a 38-60% IPC increase, the HX SKU (8 + 16) looks really nice. As for P-cores, I think we will see a moderate 15-20% IPC boost.
 

leoneazzurro

Golden Member
Jul 26, 2016
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No, it's mid.
The rule of thumb is 25% 1t or more, or piss off.
They've been really, really consistent at not violating that, but alas.
What it is interesting is that no test used for the IPC increase over Zen4 is 1t. They are all multiple threads, of course there are lower threaded tests (like FC6 - which has a strange behaviour with AMD) and higher threaded tests.
What is "strange" in all that is, multi-threaded performance increase is exactly where I'd put it (and I wrote it earlier in this thread that I expected around 10-15% in that) because nowadays it is mostly limited by thermals and power, which are also consequences of the production process. n-thread is exactly where the N4 to N5 process jump allows it to be. Single thread, I think we have to see the specific benchmarking. But all in all, the performance increase is not stellar, so in the desktop arena competition will continue as today. Server is another matter.
 

poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
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As for Intel, I'm really excited to see the new E-cores (Skymont). If the leaked slides are correct and we will see a 38-60% IPC increase, the HX SKU (8 + 16) looks really nice. As for P-cores, I think we will see a moderate 15-20% IPC boost.
balls in Intel's court now.
 

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
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I think it's because some "leakers" and "insiders" have been selling that this is going to be totally revolutionary, and clearly it's not. It's not terrible, but it's not ground-breaking.
The problem isn't performance uplift, its timing:

  • M2 launched June 6, 2022 (~11% uplift mostly clocks)
  • Zen 4 launched September 27, 2022 (13% IPC + 16% clocks)
  • Cortex-X3 launched late 2022
  • M3 launched October 30, 2023 (~15% mostly clocks)
  • Cortex-X4 launched late 2023
  • M4 launched May 15, 2024 (7% IPC + 10% clocks)
  • Zen 5 launches in July, 2024 (16% IPC uplift 0% clocks)
And now lets extrapolate:
  • Cortex X925 will launch late 2024
  • Cortex "X6" will launch late 2025
  • Zen 6 will launch mid 2026
  • Cortex "X7" will launch end of 2026
  • Cortex "X8" will launch end of 2027
  • Zen 7 will launch some time 2028

The issue isn't the uplift itself. It's that we already know that If Zen 6 comes with a "Nehalem" style upgrade (a lot of uncore changes but only ~10% more IPC as promised).

If
AMD continues to execute at that (22 month) pace, Zen 6 will only arrive mid-2026 and Zen 7 comes in 2028. That in turn means that you'll still see about the same ST and MT performance from AMD chips early 2028 that you'll get in July.

I know it's a big if (as is the execution of competitors) but given AMD now has 4 competitors instead of 1 in 2027, they will fall behind, unless they pick up the pace.
 

leoneazzurro

Golden Member
Jul 26, 2016
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ST and MT performance will be affected also by uncore and process improvements. 2026 means we will see N3-N2 for the cores and in Zen5 a some performance is also related to the IF links/connection to the I/O die. So thinking they will stay static is in my opinion wrong.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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as a total platform, Strix Point is looking great.

It will be a great APU to get for a laptop.

AMD should really rush to put these into AM5 sockets as APU and sell them as business desktops. It seems AMD is already getting some traction in this category with Phoenix.
 
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