Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[techjunkie123]

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

IPC = increased price for consumers, not instructions per clock.

999$ 9950X incoming.

 

[Fjodor2001]

lol, what a joke that 40% IPC was

Hope is not lost yet. Still waiting for the retail chips before commenting on it IIRC. Would really be a surprising last minute twist if it ends up at 40% IPC though.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

Hope is not lost yet. Still waiting for the retail chips before commenting on it IIRC. Would really be a surprising last minute twist if it ends up at 40% IPC though.

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

Thanks for anchoring the prices at that level. Now AMD cannot go above it at least. Would have preferred $399 for the 9950X though when you were setting the bar anyway.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

Thanks for anchoring the prices at that level. Now AMD cannot go above it at least. Would have preferred $399 for the 9950X though when you were setting the bar anyway.

Why stop there? $299 9950X

 

[Fjodor2001]

Why stop there? $299 9950X

Thanks for lowering the bar. On WTFTech in a few minutes, and then AMD will have to update the MSRP accordingly.

 

[Joe NYC]

X3D Is the new premium option therefore.

Yes.

That was my conclusion too, when I saw that pricing, it seems apparent that AMD is shifting V-Cache parts from niche to "mainstream to premium", while regular Zen 5 is shifting to "budget to mainstream" segments.

And Intel is being relegated to competing only in the lower segments.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yes.

That was my conclusion too, when I saw that pricing, it seems apparent that AMD is shifting V-Cache parts from niche to "mainstream to premium", while regular Zen 5 is shifting to "budget to mainstream" segments.

And Intel is being relegated to competing only in the lower segments.

If true, then what will AMD release as mid-life kicker instead of X3D?

Or are we expecting a more or less full Zen5 lineup within ~2 months of first SKU release (assuming X3D will be released in September), and then nothing of major importance until Zen6?

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

 

[blackangus]

The X3DNow ?
More Cache!
(j/k)

 

[Joe NYC]

If true, then what will AMD release as mid-life kicker instead of X3D?

Or are we expecting a more or less full Zen5 lineup within ~2 months of first SKU release (assuming X3D will be released in September), and then nothing of major importance until Zen6?

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

If X3D parts are ready within a few months, what would be the justification of holding them back a year?

It would result to 1 year loss of sales of that part. Instead of buyers flipping a coin, half going to Intel half going to AMD, with X3D part out and competitively priced, there will be a lot less of the coin flipping and nearly all buyers will go to AMD.

Over the period of a year, this will amount to millions in sales for AMD - or alternatively millions of lost sales. Millions of lost sales sacrificed at the altar of some great marketing strategy.

Regarding to what comes after X3D parts, if they figured stacking more layers, they could release those, without having to tape out any new parts.

Other alternatives stem from what @Kepler_L2 posted here earlier, that the Zen 5 A0 silicon was already out in early 2023. From that, there may be a couple of possibilities:
- newer stepping's of Zen 5, could be released as xx50 parts (7750x)
- since Zen 5 was ready so long ago, Zen 6 may be further along the way of the development, and will be released after a shorter time interval after Zen 5.

 

[Goop_reformed]

Nothing to combat the expected Arrow Lake Refresh?

The question is can Arrow Lake Refresh can even beat Zen 5x3d.

 

[StinkyPinky]

I noticed on Best Buy someone has posted photos and reviews of a HX370 laptop

Benchmarks:
Lightroom export 156 24MP RAW: 2 min 16 seconds
Lightroom AI denoise: 11 seconds
Geekbench 6 Single core: 2886
Geekbench 6 Multi core: 15279
Geekbench 6 GeForce 4060 Vulcan 91219 / OpenCL 87042
Geekbench 6 890M Vulcan 46290 / OpenCL 42932
GeekbenchML CPU 3452 (no NPU)
GeekbenchML 890M 7347
GeekbenchML GeForce 4060 12087
Crystaldiskmark 5037 MB/s read 3033 MB/s write

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438.p?skuId=6584438#tabbed-customerreviews

 

[Thunder 57]

Feels like 2018.

Exactly this. Some rumor came out that Zen 2 was going to be stupidly low priced and so many people bought it. People thought I was an idiot for suggesting otherwise (not on this forum).

I feel there's enough info shared to have a pretty decent idea though. The only last remaining complete mystery is pricing. Well, that is, until I managed to get the truth for you all here.

If those prices are accurate, I'll eat a can of cat food. I would guess more like $250/350/500/600 (maybe even 650) respectively. Maybe we should make a Google doc like the one where we put in IPC/clock guesses so we can see how wrong we all end up being .

 

[Malachijtjfjf]

I noticed on Best Buy someone has posted photos and reviews of a HX370 laptop

Benchmarks:
Lightroom export 156 24MP RAW: 2 min 16 seconds
Lightroom AI denoise: 11 seconds
Geekbench 6 Single core: 2886
Geekbench 6 Multi core: 15279
Geekbench 6 GeForce 4060 Vulcan 91219 / OpenCL 87042
Geekbench 6 890M Vulcan 46290 / OpenCL 42932
GeekbenchML CPU 3452 (no NPU)
GeekbenchML 890M 7347
GeekbenchML GeForce 4060 12087
Crystaldiskmark 5037 MB/s read 3033 MB/s write

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438.p?skuId=6584438#tabbed-customerreviews

where did you get those numbers from?

 

[jdubs03]

where did you get those numbers from?

You have to select “see all customer reviews” (it’s the 2nd review item), but here is the direct, direct link:

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/reviews/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438?variant=A

 

[Fjodor2001]

If X3D parts are ready within a few months, what would be the justification of holding them back a year?

Other alternatives stem from what @Kepler_L2 posted here earlier, that the Zen 5 A0 silicon was already out in early 2023.

The first quote says AMD ought to release Zen5X3D as soon as the chip is ready. But then the second quote says the regular Zen5 was ready already in early 2023, but is not released until now in July 2024.

So in that case why use differt policy for Zen5 vs Zen5X3D? Why not release both as soon as possible after they are ready?

(For regular Zen5, I know there is some lead time from A0 silicon until actual release is possible. But it ought to be much shorter than from early 2023 until now.)

- newer stepping's of Zen 5, could be released as xx50 parts (7750x)
- since Zen 5 was ready so long ago, Zen 6 may be further along the way of the development, and will be released after a shorter time interval after Zen 5.

For the first bullet, do you mean just frequency bumps or did you have something else in mind?

For the second bullet, would that mean Zen6 release in like 12-18 months from now, so mid-life kicker is not needed?

 

[Malachijtjfjf]

You have to select “see all customer reviews” (it’s the 2nd review item), but here is the direct, direct link:

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/reviews/asus-proart-p16-16-4k-touch-screen-laptop-amd-ryzen-ai-9-hx-370-32gb-memory-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4060-1tb-ssd-nano-black/6584438?variant=A

I still can’t find any performance numbers just picture of the laptop

 

[jdubs03]

I still can’t find any performance numbers just picture of the laptop

You have to select into the ellipses. But here you go (it’s in the 2nd image):

 

[Joe NYC]

Exactly this. Some rumor came out that Zen 2 was going to be stupidly low priced and so many people bought it. People thought I was an idiot for suggesting otherwise (not on this forum).



If those prices are accurate, I'll eat a can of cat food. I would guess more like $250/350/500/600 (maybe even 650) respectively. Maybe we should make a Google doc like the one where we put in IPC/clock guesses so we can see how wrong we all end up being .

My expectation was that Zen 5 MSRPs would be the same as Zen 4 MSRPs. But setting that aside:

If Zen 5 has identical BOM, fits in the same socket, there is not a big incentive for AMD to continue fabbing Zen 4 in addition to Zen 5, if Zen 5 completely supersedes it.

And if AMD non-V-Cache models are slated to lower end / budget, there is no reason to have both Zen 4 and Zen 5 occupy that same space.

Maybe it is hard to picture this. prior to Zen 5 V-Cache release but think past Zen 5 V-Cache release.

At that point, it will make total sense for non-V-Cache to slot exactly as a replacement of Zen 4, with same retail pricing, V-Cache models to have premium pricing, and Zen 4 to slowly disappear.

So, it is just how you get from here to there. Pricing Zen 5 high, and then 3 months later giving it deep discount seems like a sub-optimal solution.

Also, another argument that these prices could be real is that AMD is holding this pricing secret far longer than normal. If Zen 5 MSRP = Zen 4 MSRP, there is no reason to keep pricing secret, because people will not stop buying current Zen 4 if Zen 5 is going to be priced higher. But if Zen 5 is targeting Zen 4 street prices, then people would absolutely stop buying Zen 4, for 2 months, waiting for Zen 5.

 

[igor_kavinski]

But if Zen 5 is targeting Zen 4 street prices, then people would absolutely stop buying Zen 4, for 2 months, waiting for Zen 5.

Knowledgeable people would stop buying. Not the regular crowd. It's not like local PC shop will advise their customers to skip Zen 4 and wait a week or two for Zen 5. I bet there will be people who buy Zen 4 with online Zen 5 recommendations staring them in the face because they have no idea what Zen 5 is coz their best friend/family techie recommended Zen 4 and that's what they are gonna buy. I've seen far too many people being happy buying old tech out of ignorance. Makes it really hard for me to keep my mouth shut when they tell me what a deal they scored. I tried it a few times. They end up getting the feeling that I'm jealous of their purchase

 

[Hans Gruber]

Knowledgeable people would stop buying. Not the regular crowd. It's not like local PC shop will advise their customers to skip Zen 4 and wait a week or two for Zen 5. I bet there will be people who buy Zen 4 with online Zen 5 recommendations staring them in the face because they have no idea what Zen 5 is coz their best friend/family techie recommended Zen 4 and that's what they are gonna buy. I've seen far too many people being happy buying old tech out of ignorance. Makes it really hard for me to keep my mouth shut when they tell me what a deal they scored. I tried it a few times. They end up getting the feeling that I'm jealous of their purchase

The play is to wait for Zen 5 to release. Then wait for the Zen 4 bundle deals with CPU, motherboard and 32GB of memory deals. Then wait up to 6 months to replace the Zen 4 CPU with a Zen 5 CPU.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Here's a car radiator for you, just $100 here (you can also buy bykski 1080 battery for roughly the same, but it'd be worse in terms of fin area )

View attachment 103165

Just a barely on topic FYI: there are many reasons why wc wackos may use a MO-RA3 420 or similar over a car radiator. The big one is that unless you get a copper radiator, you are going to be a very unhappy customer when you mix aluminum and copper in your wc loop. So when you are running your Zen5 ES, please don't use an actual car radiator (which are mostly aluminum, and have been for a very long time)! Thanks.

Feels like 2018.

Let's skip the covid this time around.

 

[Thibsie]

Just a barely on topic FYI: there are many reasons why wc wackos may use a MO-RA3 420 or similar over a car radiator. The big one is that unless you get a copper radiator, you are going to be a very unhappy customer when you mix aluminum and copper in your wc loop. So when you are running your Zen5 ES, please don't use an actual car radiator (which are mostly aluminum, and have been for a very long time)! Thanks.


Let's skip the covid this time around.

I can't imagine the weight of a copper car radiator 😳😳

 

[yuri69]

Over the period of a year, this will amount to millions in sales for AMD - or alternatively millions of lost sales. Millions of lost sales sacrificed at the altar of some great marketing strategy.

X3D is a DIY desktop thing aka tiny niche. So a marketing gain might outweigh any lost sales.

 

[gaav87]

@igor_kavinski @Hail The Brain Slug
Look i was right 30k views, 35re-tweets for wccfcs/hassan alone. I was wrong on the 100+ tweets its like 1000+ now xD