Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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kekframeX

Junior Member
Apr 9, 2024
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Back in the day when iPhone had a $200 BOM and retailed for $800 that was considered a handsome margin. Somehow today a $70 BOM with a $700 retail is a company barely scraping by.
Did you forget that the sales of Apple devices led to other strategic gains such as OS and ecosystem market share and buy in, which resulted in a closed ecosystem where Apple could take 30% from most software sales? A quarter of Apple's total revenue comes from software and services.

Imagine if Microsoft, Asus, and AMD merged and took $0.30 from you for every dollar you spent on your PC. The OS also runs exclusively on the hardware, vice versa which locks users to the brand. Would you like that?
 
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yottabit

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2008
1,472
470
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Back in the day when iPhone had a $200 BOM and retailed for $800 that was considered a handsome margin. Somehow today a $70 BOM with a $700 retail is a company barely scraping by.
With a CPU you’re paying almost entirely for the R&D, at least I would think

Plus retailer margins, packaging, shipping etc.. not sure if that was worked into the BOM
 

Hail The Brain Slug

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2005
3,467
2,381
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With a CPU you’re paying almost entirely for the R&D, at least I would think

Plus retailer margins, packaging, shipping etc.. not sure if that was worked into the BOM
The R&D is (or at least could be) amortized across all product lines using the CCD they designed for that gen. IIRC BOM typically does not contain those costs, but specifically the $70 figure was 2xCCD + 1xIOD + packaging (substrate)
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
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The R&D is (or at least could be) amortized across all product lines using the CCD they designed for that gen. IIRC BOM typically does not contain those costs, but specifically the $70 figure was 2xCCD + 1xIOD + packaging (substrate)

RD, assembly and so on cost much more than the BOM, and that s in all tech oriented industries, FI a VW car like a Golf has a BOM that is barely 3k $ while it s sold 10x this amount, that s comparable to a CPU.

Think that for 4bn/year manpower cost they would need 80$/CPU out of 50M/year just to pay for this expense, if a 5600G MRSP is 110-120€ it s because the RD cost is already amortized, hence this very low price, not so much for newly released products.
 
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desrever

Member
Nov 6, 2021
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I have no idea how a 90% profit margin could be considered "very crappy profitability".
Then you don't know how semiconductor margins work. Most top end parts for CPU/GPU have very high margins and even mid range parts will have decent margins but the cost of R&D is so high, companies need these margins to continue designing and making new chips. AMD is only somewhat profitable pricing their products at their current prices and doesn't have the same margins as Nvidia or Intel from 10 years ago.

How much do you think each H100 costs nvidia to make verse how much they sell for?
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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Guys, there's gross margins and then there's operating margins...

Revenue - COGS = Gross Margins. COGS = cost of goods sold, aka raw production costs.

But then you have operating expenses, which includes R&D, rent, electricity, salaries, and all the other overhead items, basically.

From AMD's last earnings statement, Gross Margins were 47% and Operating Margins were 1% (both are averaged across all segments). Note: This includes an expense item from acquiring Xilinx which dilutes the EPS.

If you want it broken down by segment, you'll have to look more closely at the tables. Make of this what you will.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,008
10,306
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Guys, there's gross margins and then there's operating margins...

Revenue - COGS = Gross Margins. COGS = cost of goods sold, aka raw production costs.

But then you have operating expenses, which includes R&D, rent, electricity, salaries, and all the other overhead items, basically.

From AMD's last earnings statement, Gross Margins were 47% and Operating Margins were 1% (both are averaged across all segments). Note: This includes an expense item from acquiring Xilinx which dilutes the EPS.

If you want it broken down by segment, you'll have to look more closely at the tables. Make of this what you will.
View attachment 103592

AMD is still writing off huge amounts of money from their Xilinx and other acquisitions over the last few years to save on taxes. Their non-GAAP results are a much better reflection of how they are actually doing overall. Their operating income goes form $36M to $1.1B for the latest quarter with an operating margin of 21%, the vast majority of the difference being in depreciation/amortization accounting.

 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,503
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AMD is still writing off huge amounts of money from their Xilinx and other acquisitions over the last few years to save on taxes. Their non-GAAP results are a much better reflection of how they are actually doing overall. Their operating income goes form $36M to $1.1B for the latest quarter with an operating margin of 21%, the vast majority of the difference being in depreciation/amortization accounting.

View attachment 103595
Correct, hence my one note regarding Xilinx.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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Do you maybe have an idea where to find such breakdown? How well threaded modern games are? And another thing that might bite Strix is Windows scheduler if by chance it will decide to move the time sensitive thread to Zen5c CCX then well... [Of course in ideal world that would not happen, but even 3 years after Alder Lake is on the market it's still not uncommon to find software with issues related to handling the E cores]
I don't know of any really good technical writeups on it, but, from living on the forums for years and looking at the task manager and programming tools monitoring the modern games I play, it's quite evident that it's rarely more than 2 physical cores that are pushed to near 100% usage in any modern game. Single threaded performance is VERY important for the first two cores, and still somewhat important in the next few. After that, they spend more of their time doing little more than waiting for system events or decompressing data.

Here's a forum post by someone that did some game comparisons by examining their thread activity...
Examining per-thread CPU usage in games...
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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For the second bullet, would that mean Zen6 release in like 12-18 months from now, so mid-life kicker is not needed?

I cam across this article saying 2025 release for Zen 6, which would be within 18 months of Zen 5 release. They say their source is AMD, but I have not seen any direct quotes from AMD about that.

 

Makaveli

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2002
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I cam across this article saying 2025 release for Zen 6, which would be within 18 months of Zen 5 release. They say their source is AMD, but I have not seen any direct quotes from AMD about that.

hmm I'm expecting Vanilla Zen 5 and X3D this year and maybe a refresh on 3nm in 2025 but not Zen 6 in 2025....

 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,998
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I cam across this article saying 2025 release for Zen 6, which would be within 18 months of Zen 5 release. They say their source is AMD, but I have not seen any direct quotes from AMD about that.

Not quite. They say that according to TechRadar AMD says that Zen 6 is on target for 2025.

From the linked TechRadar article;
AMD didn’t have anything of note to say at the LA event about its next-generation Zen 6 processors first mentioned at Computex 2024. We still don’t know much about the Zen 6 and Zen 6c architectures at the moment, only that they are still on track for a release in 2025.

A release could be anything... serverside included. And the way TechRadar mentions the 2025 date it sounds like it wasn't even part of AMD's Computex talking points, but referring to perhaps an earlier rumour.

"still on track for a release in 2025" - I'm scratching my head on this one... I can't remember any rumours to such an effect. MLID perhaps? An extrapolation of the Nirvana/Morpheus roadmap? Nirvana was 2023 - Morpheus 2024... so add a year to both... and hey you get a Zen 6 release in 2025. Centipede in action?

 
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Makaveli

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2002
4,797
1,263
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Zen6 in 2025 makes no sense.
AMD announced extended support for AM5 platform to 2027.
They can easily launch Zen6 in 2026 and launch refreshes/X3D in 2027 to support that claim. Why would they as a company want to hurry things up?
I agree I think Zen 6 will tie into the release of DDR6.

However it doesn't mean we may not see some kinda of castrated version of Zen 6 for AM5 but doubting the 2025 release date.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,458
3,322
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hmm I'm expecting Vanilla Zen 5 and X3D this year and maybe a refresh on 3nm in 2025 but not Zen 6 in 2025....

View attachment 103624

Between
a) 3nm Zen 5 refresh in 2025
b)- Zen 6 (3nm) in 2025

My guess is that Zen 6 in 2025 is more likely. Only because probability of 3nm Zen 5 refresh is ~ zero. There would have to be some major breakdown with Zen 6 for AMD to be forced to shrink Zen 5 to 3nm.

But still, the most likely outcome is
c) Zen 6 in 2026
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,458
3,322
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Not quite. They say that according to TechRadar AMD says that Zen 6 is on target for 2025.

From the linked TechRadar article;


A release could be anything... serverside included. And the way TechRadar mentions the 2025 date it sounds like it wasn't even part of AMD's Computex talking points, but referring to perhaps an earlier rumour.

"still on track for a release in 2025" - I'm scratching my head on this one... I can't remember any rumours to such an effect. MLID perhaps? An extrapolation of the Nirvana/Morpheus roadmap? Nirvana was 2023 - Morpheus 2024... so add a year to both... and hey you get a Zen 6 release in 2025. Centipede in action?

View attachment 103625

Just a lot of speculation all around. I added my 2 cents earlier when I speculated that long validation period for Zen 5 could mean shorter time interval to Zen 6.

And I came across these 2 articles, both referring to possibility of Zen 6 in 2025, but neither has a direct quote from AMD about expected timing.

There will be some events that may present an opportunity for AMD to narrow down the Zen 6 release date, such as a possible slide deck for upcoming Zen 5 reviews and upcoming Q2 earnings conference next week. But most likely, neither one will release anything new.
 

Hail The Brain Slug

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2005
3,467
2,381
136
I agree I think Zen 6 will tie into the release of DDR6.

However it doesn't mean we may not see some kinda of castrated version of Zen 6 for AM5 but doubting the 2025 release date.
There was that article semi-recently that I'm pretty sure said desktop DDR6 wouldn't be ready until 2027, so I think Zen 6 will be the last DDR5 generation.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
1,758
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Has anyone thought that there might be a Zen 6 on an MI product, like mi450x or something like that? It would support the needed margins.

Maybe they will pull a Zen5+, kind of like Zen1+ on the 2x00 series? Maybe (puts on tinfoil hat) it could be the rumored Zen5 that was meant for N3 finally getting released?
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,458
3,322
106
Has anyone thought that there might be a Zen 6 on an MI product, like mi450x or something like that? It would support the needed margins.

Maybe they will pull a Zen5+, kind of like Zen1+ on the 2x00 series? Maybe (puts on tinfoil hat) it could be the rumored Zen5 that was meant for N3 finally getting released?

It seems that AMD changed the names. Mi325 will likely be only HBM 3e, then Mi350, if there is an Mi350a version might have Zen 5 CPUs.
 
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