Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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DokiDoki

Member
Aug 21, 2024
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That isn't what the link says. It's says AMD isn't producing chips in the volumes big OEMs want.
There's more to it than that - 3% operating margins doesn't allow you to develop relations with OEMs the way that you'd want.

Think about it - why does Asus always gets first dibs on any new Ryzen mobile launch, and Dell always last?
 

jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
683
307
136
Quarterly earnings reports.
Intel has a negative operating margin. For different reasons surely, but they can get design wins out quickly when they launch.

That s excuses from those big OEMs, if it was that difficult to order those chips then the Minisforum, Geekom and other Ayaneo wouldnt even get a single chip.

Beside they cant be fabbed overnight, so if they dont order them early enough in vast numbers for sure that they will lack the necessary inventories if there s a big demand, and AMD doesnt want to shed money in fabbing random quantities and be left with unsold chips that they would be forced to sell at razor margins.
Like @Heartbreaker said, the tweet is about not being able to supply enough chips to the OEMs. They’ve not proved themselves capable of doing so and the OEMs are wary. That’s on AMD more than the OEMs. AMD hasn’t been planning their inventory well enough leading up to their launches to give their partners confidence. They clearly need to work on that. They offer the best product on the x86 side as of right now, they should be able to get more design wins. Something is holding them back and it’s their inventory management. The OEMs would gladly put more of AMDs chips in if they are compelling and available in volume.
 

GTracing

Member
Aug 6, 2021
78
192
76
The low operating margin isn't a good explanation for why AMD is a bad partner, IMHO. Their gross margin (which doesn't include overhead) is close to 50%. AMD could substantially increase their operating margin if they sold more chips.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
4,302
136
Intel has a negative operating margin. For different reasons surely, but they can get design wins out quickly when they launch.


Like @Heartbreaker said, the tweet is about not being able to supply enough chips to the OEMs. They’ve not proved themselves capable of doing so and the OEMs are wary. That’s on AMD more than the OEMs. AMD hasn’t been planning their inventory well enough leading up to their launches to give their partners confidence. They clearly need to work on that. They offer the best product on the x86 side as of right now, they should be able to get more design wins. Something is holding them back and it’s their inventory management. The OEMs would gladly put more of AMDs chips in if they are compelling and available in volume.

AMD do their planing in function of the OEMs orders, it work this way for any business, why should they be any different.?.

There s an arabic saying that state that whoever want to do something will find a way, and whoever want to do nothing will find an excuse, and that s exactly what those OEMs are doing, they are not difficult to decode.

When Phoenix launched they didnt order any big quantity because they bought Intel s kool aid that MTL would do a killing and hence waited for this chip to be delivered, untill they realised that it was somewhat mediocre, at wich point they started to use Hawk Point to some extent.

Now with Strix Point being released we ll see how they ll react, currently Asus has an exclusivity for one or two months, previously it was Lenovo and before them HP, that s why you dont see other designs than Asus these days, they ll be launched once this timely exclusivity is over.
 
Mar 11, 2004
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I find this absolutely perplexing. Would think after enough time they'd get their heads together and sort this out. One are where they definitely can learn from Intel's example. Billions on the table, yeesh.

You think Intel might just have something to do with that? They literally had built their entire business for decades around screwing things up for AMD with OEMs and with them putting Gelsinger in as CEO, he openly said things that seemed to point to them going back to their business dealings. Plus, Intel has hardly been some shining beacon, be it stuff like Sandy Bridge chipset issues, or their current chip issues. And, Intel also fell victim to similar issues with mobo partners that had been biting AMD for years, showing even Intel can't entirely stop some of that stuff (although that turned out to be more Intel's fault I believe? But the shenanigans that mobo makers were pulling that led to the Zen 4 issues helped expose it).
 
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jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
683
307
136
AMD do their planing in function of the OEMs orders, it work this way for any business, why should they be any different.?.

There s an arabic saying that state that whoever want to do something will find a way, and whoever want to do nothing will find an excuse, and that s exactly what those OEMs are doing, they are not difficult to decode.

When Phoenix launched they didnt order any big quantity because they bought Intel s kool aid that MTL would do a killing and hence waited for this chip to be delivered, untill they realised that it was somewhat mediocre, at wich point they started to use Hawk Point to some extent.

Now with Strix Point being released we ll see how they ll react, currently Asus has an exclusivity for one or two months, previously it was Lenovo and before them HP, that s why you dont see other designs than Asus these days, they ll be launched once this timely exclusivity is over.
You think Intel might just have something to do with that? They literally had built their entire business for decades around screwing things up for AMD with OEMs and with them putting Gelsinger in as CEO, he openly said things that seemed to point to them going back to their business dealings. Plus, Intel has hardly been some shining beacon, be it their multiple chipset related issues, or their current chip issues. And, Intel also fell victim to similar issues with AIB partners that had been biting AMD for years, showing even Intel can't entirely stop some of that stuff.
Why are they doing exclusive arrangements? They have the leverage of being the better CPU/GPU designer; makes no sense, put out high quality designs with every manufacturer. They should have the pick of the litter when it comes to the top designs. The OEMs have the performance data for both vendors. They have to see that AMD is more compelling. They’d only be hurting themselves, and AMD by not releasing products. Intel is not in the position at this juncture to be able to pull shenanigans on the down low.

Like @FlameTail said AMD has like 20% marketshare on the client side while having the better overall product for the past few years. They should’ve made a dent into Intel’s marketshare by now.

I just hear excuses on behalf of AMD. And it literally goes against what the tweet was conveying. The tweet specifically states that OEMs aren’t willing to go all in on orders to AMD because they don’t have confidence that their volume can be fulfilled. How is that the OEMs fault?
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
4,302
136
Why are they doing exclusive arrangements? They have the leverage of being the better CPU/GPU designer; makes no sense, put out high quality designs with every manufacturer. They should have the pick of the litter when it comes to the top designs. The OEMs have the performance data for both vendors. They have to see that AMD is more compelling. They’d only be hurting themselves, and AMD by not releasing products. Intel is not in the position at this juncture to be able to pull shenanigans on the down low.

Like @FlameTail said AMD has like 20% marketshare on the client side while having the better overall product for the past few years. They should’ve made a dent into Intel’s marketshare by now.

I just hear excuses on behalf of AMD. And it literally goes against what the tweet was conveying. The tweet specifically states that OEMs aren’t willing to go all in on orders to AMD because they don’t have confidence that their volume can be fulfilled. How is that the OEMs fault?

Look at the marketshares, AMD who was on a slight rise got blocked by OEMs jumping to buy MTL, while Phoenix had much better perf and perf/watt at the powers of interest wich is the 20-45W range, so ask the OEMs why they are so eager to jump on inferior products as long as it s Intel, if the Phoenix vs MTL offerings were inverted AMD would had collapsed at 10%.

Guess that it s long years of back doors arrangements that are still going on in some inertia , just look at Dell who had only 3% of their laptops using AMD, all the rest was equipped with the ultra outdated RPL line.

 

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Guess that it s long years of back doors arrangements that are still going on in some inertia , just look at Dell who had only 3% of their laptops using AMD, all the rest was equipped with the ultra outdated RPL line.

That's because Phoenix is too expensive. And yet AMD's margins are garbo.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
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That's because Phoenix is too expensive. And yet AMD's margins are garbo.

Quite the contrary, it was cheap, that s the OEMs who were greedy and were selling it at premium prices to fill their pockets, otherwise such prices slash wouldnt be possible, think about it, how much did they pay for the chip if this laptop can end at such a price..?..

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,106
5,664
136
Quite the contrary, it was cheap, that s the OEMs who were greedy and were selling it at premium prices to fill their pockets, otherwise such prices slash wouldnt be possible, think about it, how much did they pay for the chip if this laptop can end at such a price..?..


Your average consumer isn't spending that much, even at 60% off.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
4,302
136
Your average consumer isn't spending that much, even at 60% off.

There s a 1TB SSD, 2.8k OLED and moreover 64GB RAM, at 1079$ that s for sure more interesting than a 16GB LNL at same price.

Beside you d be surprised about how much people can shed this amount, i mean 650-700€ was the average price in France back in 2010-2012, wich amount to 1000€ nowadays, heck there s smartphones that cost more.
 

Tup3x

Golden Member
Dec 31, 2016
1,072
1,063
136
MLID was saying Strix Point will have massive volume when it's released. It's been more than a month since the release, and there's only been a few Asus laptops so far. Usual MLID bs.
I'm still waiting for those laptops. There's like 10 times more X Elite laptops to choose from. I'm not sure what they are doing...
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,837
4,220
136
I'm still waiting for those laptops. There's like 10 times more X Elite laptops to choose from. I'm not sure what they are doing...
The usual AMD stupidity. No designs.
If it was Intel's fault then they would have also have been able to stop SDX. But curiously Qualcomm pulled it off.

It's safe to say AMD is at fault. I suspect it is low order quantities and pricing related. Which isn't TSMC's fault, again Qualcomm uses the same process and can apparently order enough to make OEMs happy.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
4,302
136
I'm still waiting for those laptops. There's like 10 times more X Elite laptops to choose from. I'm not sure what they are doing...
The usual AMD stupidity. No designs.
If it was Intel's fault then they would have also have been able to stop SDX. But curiously Qualcomm pulled it off.

It's safe to say AMD is at fault. I suspect it is low order quantities and pricing related. Which isn't TSMC's fault, again Qualcomm uses the same process and can apparently order enough to make OEMs happy.

Well...
Now with Strix Point being released we ll see how they ll react, currently Asus has an exclusivity for one or two months, previously it was Lenovo and before them HP, that s why you dont see other designs than Asus these days, they ll be launched once this timely exclusivity is over.
 

GTracing

Member
Aug 6, 2021
78
192
76
There s a 1TB SSD, 2.8k OLED and moreover 64GB RAM, at 1079$ that s for sure more interesting than a 16GB LNL at same price.
Ehh, I think that depends heavily on the who's buying it. Lunar Lake with 16GB will be as fast or faster for the types of stuff that most users do, while offering much better battery life.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,516
4,302
136
Ehh, I think that depends heavily on the who's buying it. Lunar Lake with 16GB will be as fast or faster for the types of stuff that most users do, while offering much better battery life.

What are those tasks that most users do and wich would be out of reach of a 8840HS.?

As for battery life it s still marketing claims, better to wait for reviews.
 
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KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,164
1,426
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There was a time when they were almost bankrupt then AMD had to write off $100 million or so of one of the early APUs. Since then - well over a decade ago - I think they have always been crazily cautious with quantity. Often leaving huge amounts of potential sales on the table.

Wth the huge fixed costs of designs, tape-outs, validation this is a crazy strategy. It's like boasting that their grid margins are high but neglecting to mention that net margins are low due to huge fixed costs!

The other part of lack of OEM wins is that AMD most likely provide far less help wrh reference designs.

Whether Intel are or were up to their old tricks to distort the market? Maybe but there are plenty of things AMD could fix if they were interested in marketshare but have continuously failed to do.
 
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