Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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JoeRambo

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2013
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You can command ASPs when you're in the lead.

Depends on market situation overall. AMD is historically very greedy and anti consumer when they are in the lead, but i don't think they can ignore economic downturn.
Intel was selling i7-920 for $284 not out of good samaritan intentions, but rather that's where the price had to be in 2008.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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You can command ASPs when you're in the lead.

I don't think the challenge AMD is facing is ability to snatch a few sales here and there at very high prices.

For the last year, approx. 75% of server market has been Ice Lake and 25% Milan. Which is laughable and a grotesque state of this industry.

The challenge AMD is facing is breaking Intel's grip on the market. Otherwise, (potentially) lousy ARL will continue to outsell (potentially) outstanding Zen 5 in the same 75% to 25% ratio.
 
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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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I don't think the challenge AMD is facing is ability to snatch a few sales here and there at very high prices.
It's what they want.
The challenge AMD is facing is breaking Intel's grip on the market.
They did it long ago.
For the last year, approx. 75% of server market has been Ice Lake and 25% Milan. Which is laughable and a grotesque state of this industry.
No it's correct. Milan costs real money, unlike ICX.
 
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Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Depends on market situation overall. AMD is historically very greedy and anti consumer when they are in the lead, but i don't think they can ignore economic downturn.
Intel was selling i7-920 for $284 not out of good samaritan intentions, but rather that's where the price had to be in 2008.

So AMD releasing the 1800X (at half the price) that beat or matched Broadwell 6900k was "AMD being greedy"? I will admit they have become more margin focused since then, but come on. That's just silly.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,161
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Depends on market situation overall. AMD is historically very greedy and anti consumer when they are in the lead, but i don't think they can ignore economic downturn.
Intel was selling i7-920 for $284 not out of good samaritan intentions, but rather that's where the price had to be in 2008.

Recommended price was 340$, do the maths with inflation, we are roughly at 500 current $, it eventually went lower because it had to face the X6 1100T.

But isn't that just a confirmation of Intel having a grip on the market?

Grip maintained by predatory pricing, predatory market manipulation.

If those numbers are half right the dam will explode, at some point either one goes AMD and is safe financiarly or he keep buying outdated Intel gear and get in bankruptcy, cloud providers will have no choice if they want to keep being in business.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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Recommended price was 340$, do the maths with inflation, we are roughly at 500 current $, it eventually went lower because it had to face the X6 1100T.



If those numbers are half right the dam will explode, at some point either one goes AMD and is safe financially or he keep buying outdated Intel gear and get in bankruptcy, cloud providers will have no choice if they want to keep being in business.
It's not like Intel based servers are broken, they run Linux and cloud platform software just fine. So, the paradigm is buy more cheap Intel servers, or fewer expensive AMD servers. There are other factors (cooling, etc), but this seems to be how the market is working right now. And, Intel is allow to have miserable margins - particularly since they are a domestic company (a foreign company would face greater scrutiny).
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,161
3,858
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It's not like Intel based servers are broken, they run Linux and cloud platform software just fine. So, the paradigm is buy more cheap Intel servers, or fewer expensive AMD servers. There are other factors (cooling, etc), but this seems to be how the market is working right now. And, Intel is allow to have miserable margins - particularly since they are a domestic company (a foreign company would face greater scrutiny).

They run fine assuming you are content to consume 1.5x the power and still have only 0.5x the throughput, so you ll be left for a same cloud service to buy 2x the racks and consume 3x the power to provide the same service as a single AMD based rack.

If that s what you call just fine, well, eventually, in the waiting of bankruptcy unless you have customers ready to pay rougly 2x the price of your competitors.
 
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H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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Is it true Zen 5 client will re-use the same IODie? Wouldn't that introduce a memory bandwidth bottleneck? I'm not an expert on Infinity fabric, so it's very likely something I'm missing.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,075
8,103
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They run fine assuming you are content to consume 1.5x the power and still have only 0.5x the throughput, so you ll be left for a same cloud service to buy 2x the racks and consume 3x the power to provide the same service as a single AMD based rack.

If that s what you call just fine, well, eventually, in the waiting of bankruptcy unless you have customers ready to pay rougly 2x the price of your competitors.
I just said that that appears to be what is happening in the current market. All these big cloud providers/data centers have done the math. They know what they are doing. They have no plans to go bankrupt. Seems obviously a bad decision, but we are seeing that the market as a whole doesn't see it that way. Kinda of shut and closed case.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,075
8,103
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Is it true Zen 5 client will re-use the same IODie? Wouldn't that introduce a memory bandwidth bottleneck? I'm not an expert on Infinity fabric, so it's very likely something I'm missing.
I'm not sure, but lacking other facts, seems like there wouldn't be a bottleneck - same number of cores. Though, if Zen5 is indeed wider with more execution units, it *should* have higher throughput and need more bandwidth. Maybe not enough more to merit a new IOD, at least on desktop.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,161
3,858
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I just said that that appears to be what is happening in the current market. All these big cloud providers/data centers have done the math. They know what they are doing. They have no plans to go bankrupt. Seems obviously a bad decision, but we are seeing that the market as a whole doesn't see it that way. Kinda of shut and closed case.

They will learn the hard way next year since Intel s SPR will be 2 gen late compared to Zen 5, just imagine that they are currently buying gear that will be largely outdated in 18 months at most.

Is it true Zen 5 client will re-use the same IODie? Wouldn't that introduce a memory bandwidth bottleneck? I'm not an expert on Infinity fabric, so it's very likely something I'm missing.
The bottleneck is in RAM bandwith, link from IOD to CCX is fast enough, otherwise increasing RAM speed wouldnt improve perfs at all.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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The bottleneck is in RAM bandwith, link from IOD to CCX is fast enough, otherwise increasing RAM speed wouldnt improve perfs at all.
I presume the new BIOS from AM5 motherboards will help with supporting higher speed DDR5, but I hear the Infinity Fabric clock is holding back the use of Gear 2.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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no.
Cheap Xeons are a perfectly fine option.
If you accept an outcome that Ice Lake, with performance deficit of up to 1:2 can outsell better performing Milan 3:1, as a result or price manipulation, how do you expect the outcome with ARL vs. Zen 5 to be any different?

Jerry Sanders (I know, I am going way back and I already mentioned Hector Ruiz today).

Jerry Sanders once said: "Volume is our vaccine". Until AMD breaks 40% or 50% market share, the wicked witch(er) will continue to hold the market under its spell.

That's something AMD never manage under Jerry, and it is still eluding AMD under Lisa Su.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
3,298
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If you accept an outcome that Ice Lake, with performance deficit of up to 1:2 can outsell better performing Milan 3:1
I mean if Intel is selling stuff at cost, so shall it be.
AMD isn't chasing volumes or engaging Intel in a price war.
how do you expect the outcome with ARL vs. Zen 5 to be any different?
DT is an irrelevant market overall.
and it is still eluding AMD under Lisa Su.
Yea it's the new, smart and very evil AMD.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Hahaha, that's a good one. All of Zen 3, except occasionaly the 5800X, were hard to get for months!

That is true. I was in the market for 5800X some 3 to 5 months after launch, and they were very hard to get, had inflated scalper prices.

I finally managed to order one, after some weeks of searching, directly from AMD.com at MSRP.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,075
8,103
136
They will learn the hard way next year since Intel s SPR will be 2 gen late compared to Zen 5, just imagine that they are currently buying gear that will be largely outdated in 18 months at most.
Do you understand that these companies have an accounting department, that gets their data from their engineers and run the numbers. They know the costs and their margins on services provided. They are professionals - no imbecilic. What they came up with is something like 'these Intel servers are so cheap, we can buy them and use them for a while'. Also, AMD can't make enough CPUs to provide for every client in the world - so at some point they must buy Intel to keep the hamsters running - they will price accordingly. Demand is so great that people will pay. Heck, it's post Covid - everyone is paying more for just about everything anyway.
 
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