Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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I expect a better IPC. I have the feeling that with the new uarch, AMD has left some low hanging fruits to pick (due to time constraints, process, or strategy). Don't get me wrong, I think the Zen5 IPC improvement looks good on integer workloads, but with a new uarch there's always room for improvement in particular when a new process is invited to the party.

Is that enough to wait for Zen6? I'm unsure. But I'm eagerly waiting for desktop Zen5 benchmarks and deep technical reviews before making a decision.

Mike Clark somewhat alluded to that in his interview with C&C. I'm hopeful for it anyway. I'd really like to see AMD be willing to give up some frequency to improve IPC and hopefully get a more efficient core out of it. The GHz race, to be honest, has been exciting and it's pretty remarkable how much the designers have been able to do to get near 6 GHz operation, but I would appreciate even more a "smarter" core that still improves performance but runs at more efficient frequencies.

Mike Clark: Yeah, as we think of Zen 5 we needed a new foundation for more compute to drive future workloads that continue to stay on this cadence of double digit IPC per generation. So you know we have been at the original Zen was 4-wide [dispatch and] 6 ALU’s and we had done a lot of innovation to really you know leverage all those resources [in] Zen, Zen 2, Zen 3, Zen 4. But we really we’re not to be able to keep that up, so we really needed to reset that foundation of a wider unit, more ALUs, more multiplies, more branch units, and then be able to leverage that like we did with the originals then to provide innovation going forward.
 
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Nothingness

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Jul 3, 2013
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Could Zen6 bring greater than 20% IPC increase?

It's notable that although every Zen core has brought "double digit" IPC gains, it's never been >20%.
If I knew I could not tell you 😀 I think another 10% for integer might be good.
 

Nothingness

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Jul 3, 2013
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Mike Clark somewhat alluded to that in his interview with C&C. I'm hopeful for it anyway. I'd really like to see AMD be willing to give up some frequency to improve IPC and hopefully get a more efficient core out of it. The GHz race, to be honest, has been exciting and it's pretty remarkable how much the designers have been able to due to get near 6 GHz operation, but I would appreciate even more a "smarter" core that still improves performance but runs at more efficient frequencies.
Thanks for the quote!

Regarding the rest of your post, I fully agree: I'd prefer more IPC and less frequency, I really like the Apple and Arm approach. And if I consider getting an AMD it's because they are more efficient than Intel... and have AVX-512.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
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If I knew I could not tell you 😀 I think another 10% for integer might be good.
It is a good target. The problem is the Zen cadence is nearly half the speed of the competition. Both ARM and Apple try to have yearly product updates.

Zen's cadence as of late is for fighting refresh-happy Intel and even then it may not be enough.
 
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CouncilorIrissa

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Jul 28, 2023
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Thanks for the quote!

Regarding the rest of your post, I fully agree: I'd prefer more IPC and less frequency, I really like the Apple and Arm approach. And if I consider getting an AMD it's because they are more efficient than Intel... and have AVX-512.
I know there was a discussion about the frequency/IPC tradeoff that x86 manufacturers are making and how they are chasing the highest clocks for the sake of marketing and I'm frankly not buying that theory, in AMD's case at the very least.

Hear me out: if you look at the Q2 earnings report, you'll see that most of their revenue comes from DC. That's a market that does not care about frequency and marketing points in the slightest, it's all about efficiency. And it's not mid 00's in client either: the lower clocked X3D chips have gained enormous mindshare despite being on the market for only 3 years precisely because of their PPC in games.

So I feel that it does not make sense for AMD to keep chasing high clocking designs unless the engineers feel that it's the optimal way to extract performance at this point in time. The only reason I could think of that could make them wary of switching to lower freq, higher IPC design if it's indeed more performant is severe area penalty maybe? So severe that it would not work on server?

Now answering the question of why the ARM and x86 vendors have arrived at such different conclusions regarding this trade-off requires someone who actually knows what he's talking about, I have no idea personally. Any guesses as to what might be going on here?
 

desrever

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Nov 6, 2021
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Now answering the question of why the ARM and x86 vendors have arrived at such different conclusions regarding this trade-off requires someone who actually knows what he's talking about, I have no idea personally. Any guesses as to what might be going on here?
My speculation is that the optimal clock vs IPC for ARM and x86 is just different.
 

Kryohi

Member
Nov 12, 2019
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The only reason I could think of that could make them wary of switching to lower freq, higher IPC design if it's indeed more performant is severe area penalty maybe? So severe that it would not work on server?
This is the answer really, imho. The zen compact cores are much more area-efficient than apple cores.
why the ARM and x86 vendors have arrived at such different conclusions regarding this trade-off
Did they? Except for Apple, which only sells consumer hardware, aren't all other arm vendors at similar PPC* and area levels compared to Zen (C) cores?

*At least on average, considering both int and fp ppc
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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Why are we expecting big gains for Zen 6 when the same roadmap that halted 32% dreams for Zen 5 also showed 10%-plus?
First 16% is way over 10% plus. Second, until the actual benchmarks come out, that 16% is from AMD. The real number could be more, as it has been before.
 

DavidC1

Senior member
Dec 29, 2023
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First 16% is way over 10% plus. Second, until the actual benchmarks come out, that 16% is from AMD. The real number could be more, as it has been before.
Why don't you look back at the leaked slide, re-read my post and come back to me?
 

H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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First 16% is way over 10% plus. Second, until the actual benchmarks come out, that 16% is from AMD. The real number could be more, as it has been before.
There are benchmarks though, we know everything there is to know about Zen 5 mobile since it has officially launched.

There’s dozens of benchmark scores for Zen 5 desktop. There was even an AMD overclocking event that shares the scores they achieved on popular benchmarks.

Zen 5 isn’t a mystery anymore.
 
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CouncilorIrissa

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Don’t think anyone’s expecting large gains with leveraged core. Zen 4-like jump at best (so 12-13%), but with much smaller clock gains, 100-200 MHz tops.
 

DavidC1

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Dec 29, 2023
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Don’t think anyone’s expecting large gains with leveraged core. Zen 4-like jump at best (so 12-13%), but with much smaller clock gains, 100-200 MHz tops.
Flametail is expecting 20%, and Nothingness is talking about greater gains, and it isn't the only time where it was alluded to saying a big departure in architecture gives more room for future uarchs.

If a big improvement is coming, it's not Zen 6.
There are benchmarks though, we know everything there is to know about Zen 5 mobile since it has officially launched.
Yea, 10% on Int and 25% or so on FP.
 

H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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Yea, 10% on Int and 25% or so on FP.
Which makes the 16% IPC score dubious if Zen 5 desktop doesn’t get close to that 16% increase on int performance.

In the past they’ve made their advertised IPC figure match the SPECint2017 score. This was the case with Zen 2, 3 & 4. For Zen 5 it sounds like they’re calculating IPC based off of a mixture of int and fp uplift instead.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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Flametail is expecting 20%, and Nothingness is talking about greater gains, and it isn't the only time where it was alluded to saying a big departure in architecture gives more room for future uarchs.

If a big improvement is coming, it's not Zen 6.

Yea, 10% on Int and 25% or so on FP.
Zen 5's goals were as follows IMO.

Mobile: much better efficiency. It does that.
Desktop: speed in all computing. unknown at this time.
server: same as desktop, but not quite as much on speed as efficiency. Unknown at this time.

Until the desktop and server are known, the 16% is meaningless.
 

CouncilorIrissa

Senior member
Jul 28, 2023
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Flametail is expecting 20%, and Nothingness is talking about greater gains, and it isn't the only time where it was alluded to saying a big departure in architecture gives more room for future uarchs.
Flametail is asking whether it could, rather than straight up expecting.

And Nothingness is on record saying that another 10% would be a good result which is in line with the roadmap.
If I knew I could not tell you 😀 I think another 10% for integer might be good.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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I expect the Zen 6 core to be an optimization of Zen 5, so I'm not going to keep my expectations high with regards to IPC. With a little more xtor budget, they can flesh out portions of the core they didn't have room for in Zen 5, so I think it will amount to like 10-15% ST uplift. I suspect a good chunk of the gains to come from what hopefully will be a better memory subsystem via the new IOD. By using a higher bandwidth and lower latency interface between the CCD and IOD, the core should be able to stretch its legs better.
 
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Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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Flametail is asking whether it could, rather than straight up expecting.

And Nothingness is on record saying that another 10% would be a good result which is in line with the roadmap.

Personally I'm hopeful for more than Zen 5, but I'm not expecting anything crazy. If they could hit mid-teens percent improvement, that would be great.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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I'm beginning to think that client Zen6 will see mostly a ~10% improvement in general performance, but that it will vary quite widely depending on the workload being measured. My feeling is that, with the rumored alignment of the desktop and mobile platforms, we will see some notable improvements in memory handling, such as a mall cache, and fleshing out of the guts of the core to better match the front end. This will result in wortkloads that can take advantage of those things showing a notable improvement and others barely showing much of anything.

The average will be about 10%, but the standard deviation will be quite high.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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It is a good target. The problem is the Zen cadence is nearly half the speed of the competition. Both ARM and Apple try to have yearly product updates.

Zen's cadence as of late is for fighting refresh-happy Intel and even then it may not be enough.
Exactly. If ARM sticks to their healthy IPC CAGR, they'll surpass AMD's absolute performance in a few years.
 
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