Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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MS_AT

Senior member
Jul 15, 2024
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I think they are choosing to go slowly and carefully rather than rush things through and failing to catch some devastating bug (like the Arrow Lake regression in games).
Even if so, it still means they are falling behind ARM competition that is able to iterate faster without obvious issues.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
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AMD used to be nimble in Zen 1-3 times.
Wrong. Zen 1 and Zen 2 gap is 28 month. Again I have to point this out: the only positive exception is Zen 3.

I doubt Zen 6 will be 2027. It'd be effective corporate suicide. The cadence must accelerate, ARM isn't slowing down. But 22 months as is average is the bare minimum to survive.
 
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inquiss

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Oct 13, 2010
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Ipc can increase by 10% and performance much more if the bottleneck is elsewhere...like memory bandwidth...
 

Thunder 57

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Aug 19, 2007
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Wrong. Zen 1 and Zen 2 gap is 28 month. Again I have to point this out: the only positive exception is Zen 3.

I doubt Zen 6 will be 2027. It'd be effective corporate suicide. The cadence must accelerate, ARM isn't slowing down. But 22 months as is average is the bare minimum to survive.

To be fair there was Zen+ in between Zen 1 and Zen 2. It was a modest bump though. It is basically what Zen 1 should have been but AMD was nearly broke and they needed to get something out to generate some revenue.

You are right though Zen 6 cannot be a 2027 product. I know there was a leak stating that but I don't believe it.
 
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LightningZ71

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Mar 10, 2017
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And, if this is one, it'll likely be no different. At best, they could release an N3e version of the CCD, assuming such a thing was already under development, but missed the production deadline. What would that bring though? Maybe 200Mhz peak ST boost, perhaps 300Mhz+ for all core MT clocks under load. It won't solve the iod link restrictions. I doubt it brings even a consistent 5%.

Maybe there's a notable hardware eratta that an XT can solve that gives a bump.

But it isn't going to be a big gain.
 

FlameTail

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Dec 15, 2021
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And, if this is one, it'll likely be no different. At best, they could release an N3e version of the CCD, assuming such a thing was already under development, but missed the production deadline. What would that bring though? Maybe 200Mhz peak ST boost, perhaps 300Mhz+ for all core MT clocks under load. It won't solve the iod link restrictions. I doubt it brings even a consistent 5%.

Maybe there's a notable hardware eratta that an XT can solve that gives a bump.

But it isn't going to be a big gain.
Another possibility would be the opposite of that: a Zen5 Refresh that uses the same CCD as Zen5, but with a new IOD (that will also be used for Zen6).
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
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Wrong. Zen 1 and Zen 2 gap is 28 month. Again I have to point this out: the only positive exception is Zen 3.

I doubt Zen 6 will be 2027. It'd be effective corporate suicide. The cadence must accelerate, ARM isn't slowing down. But 22 months as is average is the bare minimum to survive.
Zen 1 got a healthy upgrade with Zen 1+. The 14nm->12nm frequency gain with many bugs got fixed resulted in a ~10% perf gain. Those embarrassing XT cash grabs can't be compared to that.

Zen 6 *seems* to be launching late 2026 which makes some Zen 6-based product launching in 2027. That's similar to Zen 5 as we are still waiting on Strix Halo, Kraken Point, Sonoma Valley, Fire Range, more X3D stuff, etc.
 
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gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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Zen 1 got a healthy upgrade with Zen 1+.
It's a shrink of Zen 1 with improved clock rates that took 13 months to follow Zen.
AMD already launched the N3E shrink of Zen 5C only months after the N4P version and you're saying they're less nimble?
The problem is cadence. Zen 5 is a Q1 2024 product that launched in Q3. Zen 6 is a competitive product in Q3 2025 but it launches in... 2027?
 
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yuri69

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Jul 16, 2013
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It's a shrink of Zen 1 with improved clock rates that took 13 months to follow Zen.
AMD already launched the N3E shrink of Zen 5C only months after the N4P version and you're saying they're less nimble?
IMO they are considering the budget and manpower increase compared to the Zen 1-3 days.
 

gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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IMO they are considering the budget and manpower increase compared to the Zen 1-3 days.
They finally managed to get the APU to launch in time with their leading GPU arch instead of Vega. The budget is working.
But the problem is they do not yet have enough teams and simultaneously in-development architectures like ARM. Previous products slipping should not impact the next but for AMD it still does. And so Zen 6 will only be competitive in the server space. And against Intel only if Intel keeps messing up.
 
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marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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Another possibility would be the opposite of that: a Zen5 Refresh that uses the same CCD as Zen5, but with a new IOD (that will also be used for Zen6).
I would be surprised if AMD didn't release a 3nm revision of zen 5 for consumers

Or are they focusing energy on sound wave 🤔
 

Meteor Late

Member
Dec 15, 2023
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It's a shrink of Zen 1 with improved clock rates that took 13 months to follow Zen.
AMD already launched the N3E shrink of Zen 5C only months after the N4P version and you're saying they're less nimble?
The problem is cadence. Zen 5 is a Q1 2024 product that launched in Q3. Zen 6 is a competitive product in Q3 2025 but it launches in... 2027?

It was more than that, they achieved around a 10% memory latency reduction IIRC, and there was a cache latency bug that got solved.
 
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Meteor Late

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Dec 15, 2023
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What if launch in 2027 is because they are waiting for TSMC 2nm? I mean, Zen 5 was supposed to be a revolution some years ago and probably part of that was being on 3nm with the added transistor budget. Maybe AMD doesn't want to do the same mistake?
 
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gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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What if launch in 2027 is because they are waiting for TSMC 2nm?
Why wait? They don't have a problem with the same core on multiple nodes. Launch on N3 and later for N2.
My theory on that 2027 rumor is that there is truth - Zen 6 products are planned for 2027. But it isn't the first Zen 6 products. Consumer Zen 6 products launch before that.

Don't extrapolate from Turin and now again I say don't extrapolate from Venice.
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
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They finally managed to get the APU to launch in time with their leading GPU arch instead of Vega. The budget is working.
But the problem is they do not yet have enough teams and simultaneously in-development architectures like ARM. Previous products slipping should not impact the next but for AMD it still does. And so Zen 6 will only be competitive in the server space. And against Intel only if Intel keeps messing up.
Sure, the current budget manifests itself - the range of server and mobile products has grown considerably. But the core IP roadmap not really.

The Zen 5 IP was late, it was not the x86 messiah, and did not really close the gap to Apple. Sure, AMD server products are still great, but Intel has finally awaken and starts spamming cores. So yea, Zen 6 IP being late again with a 10+% IPC gain is sad.
 
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