Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Properly multithreaded games are the future and always will be.
Idtech games are literally here, now and you can play them.
The new Indy game a spiritual successor to Escape from the Butcher Bay and you should play it. Now.
PhDs can seldom write working MT code
Well it's not their job.
Shifting more work to GPU is easier - it inherently forces you to be parallel and gives far bigger scale than puny CPU cores.
GPUs are poo. If you can get away with not touching the GPU, you should.
 

soresu

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2014
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Idtech games are literally here, now and you can play them.
Yes this was the one example that did come to mind, they seem to have put a lot of effort into optimising it either for insane frame rates on good hardware or acceptable frame rates on mediocre hardware - something Valve once was a big advocate of with Source engine, but seems to have slipped from with their Steam/SteamOS/VR etc pursuits.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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I'll keep a ghetto x64 machine for old games but future spending is lamentably going to locked down Apple crap because AMD and Intel simply cannot compete (or refuse to do so, I can't tell the difference).
Only possible if all you care about is expensive productivity/creativity software, browsing, Unix-y or Apple software development and AI.

Do printers ALWAYS work on MacOS? I need to know.
 
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I'm curious to see if ARM Ltd, AMD or Intel will pick up on this Blueshift Memory's new Cambridge architecture.
It's vague enough to be hyperbole and probably meant to be a trap for gullible investors.

Anyone remember BitBoys? Someone's revolutionary point cloud rendering technology that was gonna destroy DirectX compatible GPUs by making graphics photorealistic with infinite detail overnight? Softmachines' reverse HT?

Still waiting...
 
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Meteor Late

Senior member
Dec 15, 2023
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What's with this "clock speed" thing about ARM? before it was that ARM couldn't clock high and that's why they had high IPC, now it's that they are close to x86 frequency so there is little margin left.
We don't know if Apple stopped having much IPC increases because of hard wall, lack of talent or because it was easier to just get increases via clock bumps, but ARM players have had higher YoY performance, until it slows down, let's wait before saying the wall is here.
Also, I don't think there is a fixed number where clock speed cannot be incresed anymore, just because Intel was the leader and reference and they got stuck at 5GHz for so long and AMD was catching up in terms of architecture is not proof current frequency is the wall.
Just like ARM players have higher IPC, who is to say they cannot get higher clock speed too? or AMD can maybe do the same, as Intel has been the evident loser in terms of Big Core architecture, Intel is no reference on what is possible anymore. Just because Intel was having so many issues getting their chips to clock at 6GHz and the whole degradation fiasco, doesn't mean AMD cannot get Zen 6 desktop to clock at 6.2GHz single core.
 
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soresu

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2014
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It's vague enough to be hyperbole and probably meant to be a trap for gullible investors.

Anyone remember BitBoys? Someone's revolutionary point cloud rendering technology that was gonna destroy DirectX compatible GPUs by making graphics photorealistic with infinite detail overnight? Softmachines' reverse HT?

Still waiting...
Certainly possible, they did announce a RISC-V based reference design back in November, and seem to have some partnerships in the works including something HBM based according to this article....

 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
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What's with this "clock speed" thing about ARM? before it was that ARM couldn't clock high and that's why they had high IPC, now it's that they are close to x86 frequency so there is little margin left.
We don't know if Apple stopped having much IPC increases because of hard wall, lack of talent or because it was easier to just get increases via clock bumps, but ARM players have had higher YoY performance, until it slows down, let's wait before saying the wall is here.
Presumably we won't end up with a shorter pipeline, higher IPC ARM chip clocking higher than x64 parts. That would be too embarrassing. So I assume they'll hit a frequency wall like x64 did this year.
 

aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
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Guys please remember this is a Zen6 thread.
Unless you have a speculation in performance compared to ARM, or compared to any other processors outside of speculation on Zen6, it should not be discussed in this thread.

Please go somewhere else if you want to talk about another processor that doesn't involve the speculation of Zen6.

Moderator Aigomorla
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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The market is slowing down - people can't drop grand and a half on new toy every year which isn't much different than the one they've got, purchase cycles increased, the "AI" stuff isn't working yet to get people buying.

Yeah, it's amazing what one can do when selling 200 mln+ premium devices per year - personally I'd prefer if they got battery life in my iPhone to 7 days.

People can drop a grand and a half but it has to deliver value for money. As performance gains became smaller that's harder to do - but especially because there has been no killer app for PCs in forever. They were hoping AI would be it, but for whatever benefits AI may deliver the only reason to have those benefits be delivered locally is if you have privacy concerns. The average consumer does not care about privacy at all, the success of Google and Facebook are proof enough of that fact.

Corporations definitely don't want their private data sent to the Microsoft mothership, but their solution to that will be some sort of private AI cloud. Probably not an actual private AI cloud as in AI running on servers the corporation owns (except for very large corps) but something akin today's cloud offerings where you can basically get a little piece of Microsoft or Amazon's cloud carved out for you. Corporations are already trusting tons of data to that, so why should they draw the line at AI?

If you assume the above, where's the market for a Copilot AI PC? Why does someone need to buy a new PC just to get onboard AI processing if they will end up using some form of cloud AI? Maybe to save money if you have to pay for that cloud AI, I guess.

As for a 7 day smartphone battery life, why? How does that improve your life? Is it that big of a problem to plug it into a charger every night or two? The Venn diagram crossover for "I have no electricity and no ability to carry a little portable battery pack" and "I have cellular connectivity and a need to be constantly available should someone try to contact me" is practically nonexistent.
 
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Doug S

Diamond Member
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Pay attention to moderator warnings, do not ignore them. A warning was given to stay on topic.
Well it had some games. Then Apple killed 32b apps.
Apple goes fast and loose with platform de-featuring so it's never, ever gonna be a viable gaming platform.

Apple's gaming revenue is higher than the entire console market (PS5+Xbox+everything else) and also higher than the entire PC market. It isn't all that far off from being higher than both combined.

So why do should they try to gain a few scraps off the PC gaming market they are already much bigger than? Apple has plenty of games, just not the games you personally like on the platform you want to play them on.

What's wrong with the PC gaming market that you want to make Apple try to create a viable Mac gaming market?
 
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poke01

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Mar 8, 2022
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Presumably we won't end up with a shorter pipeline, higher IPC ARM chip clocking higher than x64 parts. That would be too embarrassing. So I assume they'll hit a frequency wall like x64 did this year.
Its strange all AMD mobile parts excluding fire range ( thats a desktop part) are clocked at 5.1GHz. This might be because of N4. Zen6 client is more focused on mobile and is on N3E, we may see improvements there.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Apple's gaming revenue is higher than the entire console market (PS5+Xbox+everything else) and also higher than the entire PC market. It isn't all that far off from being higher than both combined.
Gacha casinos aren't gaming. Next.
So why do should they try to gain a few scraps off the PC gaming market they are already much bigger than? Apple has plenty of games, just not the games you personally like on the platform you want to play them on.
Oh no I don't like the casino. Woe is me.
Its strange
cost.
excluding fire range
you can ignore cost.
This might be because of N4
Because money.
Zen6 client is more focused on mobile
Who said that?
 

Meteor Late

Senior member
Dec 15, 2023
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Its strange all AMD mobile parts excluding fire range ( thats a desktop part) are clocked at 5.1GHz. This might be because of N4. Zen6 client is more focused on mobile and is on N3E, we may see improvements there.

It seems when a single core cannot consume 25-30W and we don't frequency bin, it's not all rosy in terms of frequency for x86?
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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I remember watching a video where I think it was the chief Zen 5 architect was talking about Zen 5 and he said something I thought was quite interesting and I was hoping some people here might be able to speak further on it.

He said that Zen 5 was a reset of sorts for Zen. The gist of what I got was that they took the original Zen structure and made it wider and deeper but didn't include some of the refinements that had been added in later Zen revisions. He was saying it would be too much in one generation to make not only the large architectural changes but also the smaller, complicated enhancements. This is why Zen 4 performs as well in some applications as Zen 5. He also said now that they have the basic groundwork for the new architecture these refinements will be coming in future generations.

Does anyone know specifically what was removed from Zen 5 architecturally that had been present in Zen 4 that he may have been referring to?
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Does anyone know specifically what was removed from Zen 5 architecturally that had been present in Zen 4 that he may have been referring to?
Some notable regressions and removals for Zen 5: no no-op fusion, no loop buffers, and many AVX/SSE instructions have an additional cycle of latency (was this deliberate and planned for? who knows).
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
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But less immediately when their performance per watt is 3x AMD and Intel. How else did Apple go from merely matching Zen 3 with M1 to eclipsing Zen 5 by 15% (or more) with M4? It's easier for them to boost clock rates than it is for AMD/Intel to find IPC improvements.
Zen 6 and Zen 5 before it, target real world applications performance in server first, then client second. AMD is currently leading most major applications benchmarks over both Intel and ARM with this approach. I find it impossible to believe this will change in 2025, and if it does, it will be Intel in laptop with Panther Lake, I still don't see how Clearwater Forest dethrones Turin D in DC, but that one at least I can envision.

Zen 6 will bring a potential doubling of cores over Turin D. I fail to understand how any non Smt equipped processor will match it, but that's just my gut feeling at this time.
Go plot the GB6 1T or SPECint scores of A and X series. It really isn't slowing down like x64. ARM might suck at it doing it in a decent area but their "partners" are doing better.

Zen 6 is a 10% generation so I'm pretty sure AMD won't even catch up to M4 by 2026. And by that fall Cortex X will be ahead of them in performance and performance per watt (probably not on area, however, which matters for server).
I don't think 1T is that much of a design focus for Zen6 as it has greatly diminishing returns in PC real world usage.
They can't keep going forever. They will hit a plateau sooner or later but yes, there is a good chance that they may leave the x86 players quite behind and then those players will spend quite sometime catching up. It's actually good for x86 because ARM is showing them that more performance is within reach. Lunar Lake's performance is miraculous compared to Meteor Lake and we probably wouldn't have seen it materialize without M1.
All processor designs make design decisions to best meet the intended market demands. Zen6 will very likely be a big commercial success in the markets it will be designed to serve.
Yep. They'll probably use that in the next few years. But that's a 13% clock rate increase combined with already 30% higher SPECint 1T. Do you think Zen 6 stands a chance in 1T?
There is no magic pixie dust on core design, and all processor designers are held to limits within the ability of the fan technology they are designed to be built on. The fab technology is limited by the equipment it uses, and that equipment is limited by physics and cost. You notice how no one here has a 10 Ghz Tejas processor?
Okay. Well it doesn't. I'll give you a prediction: The fastest ARM laptop CPU (probably from Apple) will be about 42% higher SPECint 2017 1T score than Zen 6 laptop (whenever it launches).
And when businesses start using SoecINT for their workflow, this will be very important 😁,
 
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gdansk

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I don't think 1T is that much of a design focus for Zen6 as it has greatly diminishing returns in PC real world usage.
It may not be a design focus of Zen 6 but 1T integer performance yields the most benefit to the most users.

And outside of a few people here we're buying interactive workstations or consumer PCs. Zen 6 isn't going to be good for us, it'll be behind the ARM competition for both workstation and laptop. In certain areas in the server space (core spam) it's likely it will lose to Darkmont and its derivatives.
 
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gdansk

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There is no magic pixie dust on core design, and all processor designers are held to limits within the ability of the fan technology they are designed to be built on. The fab technology is limited by the equipment it uses, and that equipment is limited by physics and cost. You notice how no one here has a 10 Ghz Tejas processor?
Magic has nothing to do with it. Zen 6 may need magic to push clock rates to even more absurd heights. But Apple doesn't need magic. They have been catching up with AMD's clock rates for the last 4 years. They're not far off Strix Point in clock rate (-600MHz) but still 13.6 vs 9.9 SPECint 2017 1T with a similarly absurd performance ratio in GB6 1T and CB R24 1T.

And it's not like it is much better for Zen in MT at consumer core counts. 4+6 M4 competes well with a 4+8 Zen 5 while at much lower power.
 

Meteor Late

Senior member
Dec 15, 2023
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It may not be a design focus of Zen 6 but 1T integer performance yields the most benefit to the most users.

And outside of a few people here we're buying interactive workstations or consumer PCs. Zen 6 isn't going to be good for us, it'll be behind the ARM competition for both workstation and laptop. In certain areas in the server space (core spam) it's likely it will lose to Darkmont and its derivatives.

I mean, if a CCD increases from 8 to 12 cores, that tells you where the focus is for AMD. The transistor budget will be mostly spent on increasing MT, and only a small part will be reserved for ST.
 

Hulk

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If Zen 6 improvements were increase cores to 24, 5% ST IPC gain, and some efficiency gains due to a node shrink I'd be quite pleased.
 
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