Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[naukkis]

AMD's ISSCC presentation on Zen5.

Please share that - I can't find such a statement.

 

[blackangus]

I never see it mentioned by others and I think it's a major key point:

computing requirements are plateauing.

Never underestimate how greedy applications can be.

 

[Thibsie]

Never underestimate how greedy applications can be.

Yeah, just compare Win10 first build and last build. Huh. 😳

 

[StefanR5R]

@naukkis, I am too cheap to look up the original slide set. But here is some 2nd hand info:

The "Zen 3" and "Zen 4" L3 "ring" fabric topology [5] is replaced by a mesh topology which reduces latency and increases bandwidth, especially for configurations with higher core counts.

(TechTechPotato video at 00:56:52)
The subsets of slides which some 3rd parties published do not detail the exact topology of the Zen 5c server CCX.

So, AMD speak explicitly of a mesh. On the other hand, they kept speaking of a ring WRT Zen 3 and 4's CCX, while it is actually a ring with undisclosed extras.
(Dr. Ian Cutress: Does an AMD Chiplet Have a Core Count Limit?)

 

[Hulk]

I don't think N2X is, uh, "lower power".

Uh, yes. It is.

Power reduction = Lower power

 

[Thibsie]

Uh, yes. It is.

Power reduction = Lower power

View attachment 122402

He probably meant N2X compared to vanilla N2 ??

 

[Kronos1996]

I think AMD will Keep It Simple with Zen 6. 24 cores and ~10% IPC increase, maybe a few hundred MHz frequency increase under load due to lower power with the new node. Put it all together and you've got a solid bump from Zen 5.

Agreed, IPC won’t be the focus but I still expect above average single-core gains. Zen 4 was a very similar situation. Built on Zen 3’s new core and ramped everything up to 11. The final result was 25% higher single-core performance and only half of that was IPC (13%.) Huge clock-speed bumps and of course faster ram (DDR5.)

Zen 5 is also a new core, probably the most radical redesign they’ve done. Mike Clark said he’s very pleased with how it turned out but especially how much room it has for future growth. Zen 6 will build on that while adding new packaging and a new IOD for faster memory while jumping two nodes. Given all that, anything less than 20-25% single-core improvement would be a disappointment.

 

[Kronos1996]

Ahh.

I am still betting that the Zen 6 DC dense version (whatever they call it) will have several 32c Zen 6c CCD's ... made on N2 of course.

I am still not convinced that AMD will use N2 for desktop and laptop though. We will see.

Why wouldn’t they? Silicon cost isn’t an issue for a ~70mm2 die and 2nm shouldn’t cost much more than N3P while offering bigger performance improvements. IIRC it may offer better yields longterm as well. N3 pushes FinFet to the absolute limit. Which is why it had issues and offers below-average improvement for a new node.

With Intel Foundries back on track and 18A looking to match or exceed 2nm, AMD should be more aggressive with nodes. Surely Intel Products will figure out how to design a competent core eventually? Banking on that handicap long-term would be unwise.

Also, Mike Clark said designing Zen 5/5C for two nodes in parallel was a nightmare. Strongly doubt they wanna repeat that experience. For what benefit? An N3P CCD that’s $10 cheaper?

(Latest TechTechPotato livestream they estimated an N2 CCD costs $45-54 at a wafer cost of $25K-30K. That’s a worst case scenario using early yields and worse pricing than AMD probably pays. N3 wafers are rumored to cost $18K-20K so the same size die would be $33-36. However, that ignores the fact that the N3 die would have to be bigger due to worse transistor density.)

 

[jpiniero]

Why wouldn’t they? Silicon cost isn’t an issue for a ~70mm2 die and 2nm shouldn’t cost much more than N3P

Oh but it will. If you have customers willing to pay for the power savings, great. Client is not one of those.

 

[Hulk]

With Intel Foundries back on track and 18A looking to match or exceed 2nm, AMD should be more aggressive with nodes. Surely Intel Products will figure out how to design a competent core eventually? Banking on that handicap long-term would be unwise.

I really hope 18A is going to put Intel back on the map from a fab point-of-view. It's been so long since they've had a fab win. Needless to say, they need it.

 

[fastandfurious6]

Uh, yes. It is.

Power reduction = Lower power

View attachment 122402

my guess N2X gonna be ~20% more speed at same power

adjustable on runtime between perf/power or its fab design choices?


combine IPC increase with big node jump and bigger CCDs and you have Zen 60%

 

[Gideon]

my guess N2X gonna be ~20% more speed at same power

adjustable on runtime between perf/power or its fab design choices?


combine IPC increase with big node jump and bigger CCDs and you have Zen 60%

Stop with the delusional takes, it gets tiresome. Zen6 might very well be the better product (I hope so) but there is absolutely no evidence suggesting N2X will have 20% better performance (not density) than 18A.

It might be in the ballpark but suggesting it's flat out better by 20% is ignorant fanboyism. Will we se you publicly eat crow, when this instead turns out to be accurate?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913823095837573191

More likely you'll just shift some goalposts

 

[Hulk]

Stop with the delusional takes, it gets tiresome. Zen6 might very well be the better product (I hope so) but there is absolutely no evidence suggesting N2X will have 20% better performance (not density) than 18A.

It might be in the ballpark but suggesting it's flat out better by 20% is ignorant fanboyism. Will we se you publicly eat crow, when this instead turns out to be accurate?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913823095837573191

More likely you'll just shift some goalposts

I think that was in comparison to N3E not 18A perhaps?

 

[fastandfurious6]

Stop with the delusional takes

delusional?? me? but I'm the prophet!

yes the comparison is to N3E (as the graph shows) and numbers will be much higher over Zen 5 (N4P)

that being said, my prediction is Intel A18 ~= TSMC N3, so it might also be comparison to A18 lol!

 

[adroc_thurston]

Uh, yes. It is.

You do understand what the X is for don't you