Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[fastandfurious6]

computing requirements will quickly reduce over time. better AI will train better AI and algorithms and techniques and so on, it's a self-feeding loop. local LLM will be GPT-4 equivalent but at the same time online i.e. GPT-5 will be far more powerful and so on.

AI companies will still run with deficit on surplus funding etc because capitalist accelerationism

 

[adroc_thurston]

computing requirements will quickly reduce over time.

They've literally only ever went up.

 

[HurleyBird]

Compute requirements will go down, perhaps very quickly, but only when controlling for output (amount and robustness) requirements. Output requirements on the other hand are skyrocketing, and the ceiling for them probably doesn't exist.

 

[fastandfurious6]

They've literally only ever went up.

no, deepseek has GPT-4 perf at way less requirements
and with quants u can run 7B on most machines even with just mobile CPU i.e. Phoenix/HWK up to 10tiktoks/sec, macbook M3+ being a lot better

of course GPT-5 will have way more requirements

two ways this goes,
1) existing models become more efficient/less hungry while hardware becomes faster
and 2) new models of course will be hungrier

 

[Hulk]

They've literally only ever went up

When more compute is available developers use it. Either to add features or to not optimize the code and just let the processor do the heavy lifting.

Now and then some outlier applications do become more computationally efficiency. PureRaw is one that comes to mind but I'm having a hard time thinking of another!

If compute "topped out" for one reason or another then we'd see developers really get to work figuring out ways to increase both features and speed while decreasing or keeping computational overhead constant. A great example of that woud be the old Atari 2600 game console. The unit was so ubiquitous that even when it was far outclassed by newer hardware developers were racking their brains to create games that were somewhat competitive with the newer hardware just because the user base and therefore possible sales base was so large. It was worth the effort to work out all sorts of clever tricks to max out the hardware.

Due to the limit of the human eye I think we are seeing a similar effect with TV's and displays. The move from SD (interlaced no less!) to 720p or 1080p was a massive increase in visual fidelity. While the move from 1080p to 4k is technically just as large an increase in resolution (4x) the visual results are much less pronounced for basically two reasons. First, depending on the distance from the screen and size of it we are reaching limits to human vision, especially in the real world where many people aren't even 20/20 corrected. Second, it takes really good cameras, lighting, lenses, operators, and post production to actually make each one of those 4k pixels count.

I have my doubts that 8k will even ever become a mainstream consumer format. Professional format? Absolutely, working at high resolution provides greater latitude and ability for cropping while preserving quality when going to 4k in post.

I think where we are going to see the big push for higher resolution is with monitors and gaming. What happens if desktop resolution stalls at 4k? Eventually GPUs capable of gaming at 4k "slide down the stack" possibily to the point where the lower end cards are capable of decent 4k. Sure, developers will find ways to waste compute cycles on fx that are not or barely visible at the request of GPU manufacturers but consumers are pretty smart and will see the lack of difference with their eyes and just turn them off and happily game away.

Anyway, the push for more compute is complicated and driven by market forces as much or more than consumer demand is my point.

 

[fastandfurious6]

yeah 8K is a pipe dream with little benefits under current architectures. wayyy too hungry

2.5K/4K 120hz will become the golden standard just like 720p/1080p has been for a long time

 

[Win2012R2]

While the move from 1080p to 4k is technically just as large an increase in resolution (4x) the visual results are much less pronounced for basically two reasons

It's a huge improvements on monitors as people sit much closer to them than TVs, but even on TVs it's a very nice improvement too

Now that we have very good upscalers 8k might finally become being viable too, in a few years at least.

yeah 8K is a pipe dream with little benefits under current architectures. wayyy too hungry

Render in 4k and upscale, done.

 

[itsmydamnation]

everyones ignoring the copyright issues. At some point thats going to have to get answered, with the USA doing USA things that might be a very different answer jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

So far only shovel makers are coming out ahead in this arms race. What happens to LLM spend in a trump induced recession? Are you even in a recession if trump firers everyone who reports consumption?

 

[DAPUNISHER]

everyones ignoring the copyright issues. At some point thats going to have to get answered, with the USA doing USA things that might be a very different answer jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

So far only shovel makers are coming out ahead in this arms race. What happens to LLM spend in a trump induced recession? Are you even in a recession if trump firers everyone who reports consumption?

Getting reports about this post. I agree, it is too political for the tech forums. Can't avoid talking about tariffs, but naming politicians and discussing their policies should be done in the designated forum for such topics. Any posts that cross the line moving forward will be subject to deletion.

Mod DAPUNISHER