Zen delayed to 2017 (DigiTimes)

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chrisjames61

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
721
446
136
I get that, I have fond memories of my first K6 build, and remember loving that they were always at my easily attainable budget and delivered great bang for buck. But that was years ago, and the company has maybe 3 of those employees left over. They're a company, a brand name and in a market that has been grinding to a halt - no one cares about high performance $400 cpus and $1,000 video cards, other than a particular niche of gamers and hobbyists. For most people, a $500 all in one or $200 chromebook will do what they need to do. The niche that's left means volume's low so it'll be very difficult for a company like AMD to make the margins and recoup r&d by making $80 processors that outperform $400 intel offerings.

It just won't happen. It's kinda like when you really hope a singer's going to make an awesome comeback after 10 years of mediocrity, but then they just end up dead in a hotel... Like AMD is Whitney Houston, or MJ without the pervy stuff. I kinda think x86 is dead (and microsoft as we know it, to be honest). I think arm will be where it's at and I look forward to the day I can edit 4k video in a desktop environment with my $300 arm desktop using a hybrid of chrome and android. Apple will do it first with an arm macbook and the rest of the industry will jump ship from x86 with google giving them the platform to do it without a licensing fee. I'll put money on that!


Once Apple releases a Macbook with their in house processor I think the flood gates will open as far as ARM goes. You know they already have it all worked out just like they had the parallel x86 thing going with OS X during the PowerPC days.
 

sirmo

Golden Member
Oct 10, 2011
1,014
391
136
How much of the x86 chip market do you think enthusiasts that would buy Zen make up? Do you think that market is large enough to make up for pissing off the OEMs?
That entirely depends on price and performance which we don't know, but there is a great demand from enthusiasts for something different to the rehash of the same product Intel has been pushing on us since Sandy Bridge. For the most part PC builders don't care about iGPU for one. Our view on here might be skewed by gaming but there are tons of folks out there who need cores at an affordable price. Every single CPU intensive task I do on my computer is multithreaded, whether it be running tons of vagrant VMs, compiling a project I am working on or synthesizing an FPGA, the cores are my bottleneck. And I don't want to pay $1000+ for a CPU from Intel.

I believe Zen will be no bigger than a Polaris 10 die. Which AMD plans on selling for $200 after memory, PCB and AIB cut. Zen's margin per square mm of that same silicon should be multiple times larger.

Delaying a launch for market conditions to get better would be like throwing money away.
 
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Minkoff

Member
Nov 7, 2013
54
8
41
I see you guys talking OEMs, but OEMs care about APUs and the first iteration of Zen is HEDT. What has Zen got to do with APU inventory?
AM3+ FX CPUs are probably not in production for a long time and the available stock is on massive discount, that could easily be written-off or loses already accounted for.
They could even have been manufactured due to WSA with GlobalFoundries already in 2014-2015, and off the books already.
 
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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,412
12,879
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I see you guys talking OEMs
We're being sold the idea that AMD, the company with near extinct market share, is being asked to delay launching an enthusiast product in order to make room for it in their high volume distribution channels.

A chip that would barely have enough inventory to claim a Q4 2016 launch being delayed to Q1 2017 in order to feed the OEMs.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,453
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A chip that would barely have enough inventory to claim a Q4 2016 launch being delayed to Q1 2017 in order to feed the OEMs.

This is a good thing, no? I mean, not for us enthusiasts, it means we'll get the chip later, but for AMD's health, and the satisfaction of the OEMs, yes, right?
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,412
12,879
136
This is a good thing, no? I mean, not for us enthusiasts, it means we'll get the chip later, but for AMD's health, and the satisfaction of the OEMs, yes, right?
You were never going to get the chips earlier. Q4 2016, at best, would be a product launch with limited availability (a.k.a effective paper launch). The whole idea would be to get some headlines during 2016 winter holidays, not a spot under the Christmas tree.
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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We're being sold the idea that AMD, the company with near extinct market share, is being asked to delay launching an enthusiast product in order to make room for it in their high volume distribution channels.

A chip that would barely have enough inventory to claim a Q4 2016 launch being delayed to Q1 2017 in order to feed the OEMs.

haha. Sums it up nicely.

I basically think the writer mixed AMD and Intel into a mess. A quick write and not on purpose. But it ends up with the "Zen delayed to 2017" in our forum.

I mean if you bring such crap here and support it, you rightfully must expect som flak. Of about 1 million possibilities for a delay, this one takes the price as the least possible. I mean its like aliens from outher space delays zen to 2017 because they dont like the color of the die
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,561
13,122
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Still dont know a damn thing. Wouldnt we expect some beta silicon to leak up somewhere by now? Pretty die shots?
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,815
11,172
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I understand the plausibility but I fail to see correlation. In the first stage they need Zen for the headlines, not the OEM sales.

Exactly. Low volumes to the DIY market and/or boutique OEMs that build to order as often as anything else.

Of course market demand is slow.

Right. AMD is up against the wall, though. They have no choice but to launch something credible to improve their market share, even if the overall market volume is shrinking. They gain nothing from waiting 3+ months in hopes that some Visheras or Skylakes will move through the channel and out of Summit Ridge's way.

Eventually they are just going to have to say "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" and launch the thing to build some actual hype for their product. I'm a little surprised they haven't pulled a Conroe and permitted some strategic ES leaks 6+ months in advance of the actual launch.

It's not "build it and they will come", it's "go big or go home". They have to deliver something and they have to do it before losses eat them alive.

If the entire OEM supply chain is backed up with inventory of an old product they aren't going to want new product that obsoletes that inventory.

Yeah but that supply chain is going to stay backed up if companies like AMD and Intel fail to deliver excitement to the end-user. With all due respect to Kabylake, I don't see that product exciting many consumers versus Skylake. Maybe the codec support will be a big deal for that crowd? I dunno.

For AMD . . . Summit Ridge is everything. The tension is so thick that you can cut it with a knife. The entire company's future hangs on whether or not they can deliver with that product. You can hear a pin drop. It would genuinely shock me if anyone at AMD really gave a fig about devaluing some OEM's inventory of aging chips. That's like Intel holding on to Conroe in '06 in hopes of moving off excess Cedar Mill and Presler chips.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,971
1,692
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With all due respect to Kabylake, I don't see that product exciting many consumers versus Skylake. Maybe the codec support will be a big deal for that crowd? I dunno.

About the only thing Kaby has going for it is native HDMI 2.0 support. Otherwise there is absolutely nothing to get excited about.
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
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For AMD . . . Summit Ridge is everything. The tension is so thick that you can cut it with a knife. The entire company's future hangs on whether or not they can deliver with that product. You can hear a pin drop. It would genuinely shock me if anyone at AMD really gave a fig about devaluing some OEM's inventory of aging chips. .

Anything using old AMD chips, yes there'll be a huge pick up and you imagine that AMD (and the OEM) would very happily scrap/fire sale it.

Anything using vaguely modern Intel chips? I don't see how either AMD or Intel could get an OEM to firesale that. Where would they get the leverage from?

The old stock will still be entirely competitive with something using Zen/Skylake. 15" mac book pro is still using Haswell for instance.

Goodness knows if it'll affect anything
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
my friend in India has ES of Zens, but it seems not the predprodution sample (same specs and revision as final retails)

Well tell him to run kraken 1.1, just 5 seconds of testing will tell us everything we need to know about Zen.
 

SAAA

Senior member
May 14, 2014
541
126
116
Well tell him to run kraken 1.1, just 5 seconds of testing will tell us everything we need to know about Zen.

So true... just while he's at it 5 sec more to run CPUZ bench too and everyone's happy. ()
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,815
11,172
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Anything using old AMD chips, yes there'll be a huge pick up and you imagine that AMD (and the OEM) would very happily scrap/fire sale it.

Anything using vaguely modern Intel chips? I don't see how either AMD or Intel could get an OEM to firesale that. Where would they get the leverage from?

The old stock will still be entirely competitive with something using Zen/Skylake. 15" mac book pro is still using Haswell for instance.

Goodness knows if it'll affect anything

I just don't see Summit Ridge doing much to affect Haswell though (Haswell-E maybe). If it's a home run it'll devalue everything on the market to an extent, but again, it's 6c or 8c and nothing else, in limited release. If AMD releases 10k units or less on the DIY/boutique market, instead of Haswell getting significantly devalued, I'd expect the Summit Ridge chips to get price-jacked through the roof and sold out in most cases.

Broadwell-E might take a hit but cmon, that's what AMD is SUPPOSED to do. Compete! Eventually AMD has to do something right, and doing something right will devalue competing products, especially those which are price-inflated for want of credible competition.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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Would you buy such an ugly die?
I wouldnt be able to tell it apart from the art on my wall

So now you know i dont know much about art either but as long as the women are beatifull i dont give a damn about how the rest looks.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
I just don't see Summit Ridge doing much to affect Haswell though (Haswell-E maybe). If it's a home run it'll devalue everything on the market to an extent, but again, it's 6c or 8c and nothing else, in limited release. If AMD releases 10k units or less on the DIY/boutique market, instead of Haswell getting significantly devalued, I'd expect the Summit Ridge chips to get price-jacked through the roof and sold out in most cases.

Broadwell-E might take a hit but cmon, that's what AMD is SUPPOSED to do. Compete! Eventually AMD has to do something right, and doing something right will devalue competing products, especially those which are price-inflated for want of credible competition.
You guys have to remember the purpose of amd is to move wafers for gf. Not profit not competing with intel. Lol.
They do that by printing zen in huge numbers. It might take a month or tree to ramp but they must have prepared for a step ramp.
Its about revenue.
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
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I just don't see Summit Ridge doing much to affect Haswell though (Haswell-E maybe). If it's a home run it'll devalue everything on the market to an extent, but again, it's 6c or 8c and nothing else, in limited release. If AMD releases 10k units or less on the DIY/boutique market, instead of Haswell getting significantly devalued, I'd expect the Summit Ridge chips to get price-jacked through the roof and sold out in most cases.

Broadwell-E might take a hit but cmon, that's what AMD is SUPPOSED to do. Compete! Eventually AMD has to do something right, and doing something right will devalue competing products, especially those which are price-inflated for want of credible competition.

Yea, I agree. Zen as of now is a very niche product for the consumer market. What Intel has to be concerned about is Zen for servers and the APUs for the consumer market. If AMD can afford to pair HBM with their Zen APUs at a reasonable price and go to something like 1024 shaders, could be a very nice product, especially for laptops. Even with all the money and die space they have thrown at them, I am not that impressed with Intel's igpu performance.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
I always asumed the only reason zen goes to desktop first was because server needed more time for validation?
 

sirmo

Golden Member
Oct 10, 2011
1,014
391
136
I always asumed the only reason zen goes to desktop first was because server needed more time for validation?
That and also binning 6-core and possibly 4-core chips for desktop first makes sense.
 
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